wncsnow
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Everything posted by wncsnow
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HRRR total rainfall
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Guidance has shifted west slightly but we are still in for major impacts
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Hi Res GFS is crazy
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Here you go
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Hi Res NAM shows where I expect the heaviest rain to be from the PRE
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1940 hurricane came from Hilton Head and went into GA before going north. 1916 was really the worst case scenario. A storm from the gulf and a storm from the Atlantic within a week or so. Devastation to the railroads then. If that happened now I dont want to think how bad it would be.
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Old fort is getting pounded again with storms. They have had 2 inches today in spots already. I am also surprised at all the tornado warnings near us today in TN, KY, and VA. I'm sure there will be some with Helene too.
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More storms firing
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New rainfall map from NWS GSP.
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Still inching east. I really think someone gets 16"+ totals from this
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According to the NHC, Helene is in the 90% for storm size. So it's big
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Totals keep going up from WPC
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Just had a July type storm move through. .83 on the day so far. Over an inch on the week.
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These big storms moving through are not good with the Precursor and hurricane coming.
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Euro moving the Precursor rain closer to the escarpment (or over most of SWNC) each run
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UKMET
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The inland flooding could be devastating with the PRE and Helene combo. Southern Appalachian areas could see as much impact as Florida with flash flooding, mud slides, and high winds in the higher elevations. Some areas along the Blue Ridge could easily see 12-16" of rain with orographic uplift with the SE flow
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This is the AI euro model
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Not good when an ensemble Mean is showing 7+ inches of rain across the area...
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That upper low keeps shifting east moving the boundary with it. It makes sense for it to be over or near the Apps/Blue Ridge unfortunately
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Precursor rain keeps moving east on models.
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Bad thing is that's probably underdone too for upslope areas. I say 12-14" is likely unless the track changes drastically and the Precursor event totally misses us.
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Early map from GSP
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I don't see how we can escape major flooding this time. Probably the worst since 2004 with Frances and Ivan for the central and northern foothills and mountains
