MD Snow

36 hr storm on the GFS. Friday night into Sunday morning. Edit: 18z GFS again teasing us with real cold entering the lower 48 Feb 3-4.

GFS again keying in on the storm after the "chill" storm. Way to early to get caught up in details. Give me that track with a sprawling 1035 hpc to the north and I'll take my chances 9 days out.

Agreed.

Yeah, i'd be super excited if I was you. This is possibly looking like one of those setups where the cities get white rain and you score a solid 6" of paste. I really hope someone can score in the next couple weeks. I run a landscaping business and rely on snow removal in Jan/Feb. I never count on it but it is really nice for my wallet. It's more than just a hobby for me.

Someone in the sub is going to get lucky if the current set up holds. Obviously, this highly favors elevation and areas north and west.

hmmm....looks like a cutter to me....

1/30

GFS op on it's own for the chill storm. 12z CMC/JMA/EURO/ICON all have a more suppressed solution than the GFS' cutter solution.

This is the current SLP ensemble spread for when the 12z GFS op is showing the cutter (chill storm) spinning in the midwest. There's no real agreement. I'd say things will lock on to a solution for this one by Friday/Saturday. I've been very surprised at how well the modeling has done with our last 2 systems. They've locked on to an early solution from about 4-5 days out and haven't really wavered. Here's to hoping this one ends up trending in our direction so at least someone in the forum can get some accumulating snow.

ICON doesn't go out that far. CMC is all snow.

12z chill storm update - GFS is a cutter to the lakes and the CMC a strung out/southern slider with enough cold for all snow for our area. ICON appears to be headed somewhere in the middle.

Encouraging to see that last couple GFS runs bringing some legit cold into the lower 48 around Feb 5-6.

ICON and CMC went the right direction for the chill storm. Neither resemble a cutter.

ICON at 180 with a decent track for the chill storm. Hints of a possible favorable transfer to the coast. Mediocre cold; but cold nonetheless nearby. GFS has shown a cutter for a number of days now but it's ensembles are all up in the air as to whether this will be a cutter or more of a coastal solution. Will be interesting to see if it begins to come around to something a little more interesting for snow prospects.

Yeah, when the mountains only have a 50% chance of 3 inches per eps...the writing is pretty much on the wall.

Icon with a perfect Apps runner. For five days out, the globals are in decent agreement.

Ok. But the trend trend over the last 24 hrs was further east and that appears to have been stopped at 12z. The consensus at this point is an inland runner. The snowfall map is just a reflection of a consolidation around this possible outcome. Still time to shift but if you were looking for a positive trend, this wasn't it.

CMC sucks if you're looking for a positive trend. On to the GEFS and EURO.

Just a couple more ticks.

GEFS will be telling. Will be looking for any shift east in low track. It really wouldn't take much for a shift east of about 100 miles at a 5 day lead. So close and yet so far away given the winter we've had up to this point.

It's basically the same as it's 0z run. No real change. Not good though.

Here's some thoughts from an amateur... The 6z gfs has the HPC above the lakes and pressing slightly more. It is 2 mb stronger thus allowing more cold air to work into this system. It also causes the primary to be considerably southeast which allows for a more favorable transfer closer to the coast. It's not there yet, though. Having the primary running through eastern Kentucky instead of western would be the difference between the transferred low running inland verses closer to the coast. We need that HPC to press more in future runs. This is beginning to look like it has some potential for areas north and west with some elevation. Pretty good agreement beginning to show up on the GEFS for LPC placement at hr 138. Notice the four eastern outliers in the Atlantic. That's our hope. We want to see more of the LPC in the Atlantic not overtop of us in future runs. The optimist/weenie would say that there's plenty of time to get a slight shift east. All we need is about a 100-150 mile shift east in 6 days to put areas west of the bay in play. It could always go the other way though.

ICON, GGEM, EURO, UKMET and now the JMA all with the coastal idea.

I'm so confused. The EURO just spit out probably it's most exciting run all year...and silence from Chill, Psu and Ji.... If this ends up being a snowstorm for our area this should be the weenie storm of 2020.