MD Snow

For those in the cities and especially s/e of 95... We better hope this thing doesn't tuck anymore or we'll be dealing with a quick 2-4" followed by a crap ton of rain. Not sure if there is a correlation but it does seem that as the models have become more amped for Monday the Wednesday storm is closer to the coast and the warm push is more and more pronounced. I'm still super excited and would take anything after the last couple of years.

A couple thoughts....I count roughly 26 6z EPS members that basically keep the big accumulations 95 n/w. I'm not going to start paying serious attention to r/s/mix line until after the monday system. I'd imagine there will be adjustments one way or the other after the Monday system.

5 days guys....5 days. Probably not the best analyze temp profiles this far out until we get inside 72hrs. Literally a 50 mile shift east would the be the difference in all frozen for the cities. Everything's still on the table this far off.

Yes. Seems like an elevation/intensity dependent event as depicted on the 12z cmc/gfs. Still time for it evolve either way. The ops seemed to have shifted east with the track which is a good sign.

But it's march and we haven't gotten any snow all year...haha

Am I missing something? Are you referring to the fact that it seems to have consolidated around a more OTS solution? Doesn't seem that different at H5. Not a lot of outliers. We are inside of 4 days now. Which is when the GEFS begins to play follow the OP more often. Right? It's always been a long shot and I guess the 18z GEFS drives that home.

No one's really mentioned it but CMC, GFS and EURO all have a coastal idea with cold not that far off for the March 11-12 timeframe. A long shot but something to keep an eye on. Only10 days out now. GFS has been hinting at it for a couple days now. 18z gefs for the timeframe. Not a bad signal 10 days out.

Well, our NS system is currently south of the Aleutian Islands. Still has a lot of real estate to cover. We've all seen crazier shifts happen with less lead time.

The gfs op at 12z and 18z had slight ticks east and less dig with the NS. As you have mentioned, got to have that stop soon or our chances will most likely be toast at any accumulating snow.

Yeah, a slight step back at h5.

One thing that is encouraging up to this point is that things have trended in a positive way over the last 48 hrs basically across all guidance. Which goes against the trend this winter. Famous last words. Hope 12z doesn't lay an egg.

NAM at range but why not?

Agreed. Better look at h5. Trough is further west. Close to something better. Been trending the right way for like 7 runs in a row now. That’s something we haven’t seen all year. It’s march. I’ve seen flakes falling from the sky like 3 times all year. I don’t care about 3”. My bar for any storm at this point is seeing flakes falling from the sky. Also, half the fun for me is tracking. And it looks like we might actually have something to track this week!

ICON has trended positively its last three runs for the Friday threat. It has been the most disjointed over the last 24 hrs. Now develops a coastal and get's snow into interior new England. Through 72 hrs on 0z GFS SS system is slightly further north/west while NS is further south. IMO we want the SS to slow down in order for the northern stream to catch it, phase and pull it up the coast before going out to sea.

Fun to look at...doubt it will have any meaningful impact on wintery conditions for our area. BUT all you can ask is for things to trend in the right direction...and for now it appears to be happening. Looks to be trending to the CMC.

Has there really even been a model that says "yes" with this threat? It's all about the timing/dig of the northern stream and that won't be figured out for another 2-3 days. We all know how this will work out but for the time being I'm glad to have something interesting to keep an eye on. It's about as good as it's been all winter.

Ji got his digital snowstorm via the 0z gfs tonight and PSU’s March rainstorm was a March snowstorm for one run. What a night!

Totally agree. Another thing I have noticed is that for the most part there really hasn't been many surprises inside of 96 hrs. Models have been locking onto a general storm track early on and not wavering all that much in the grand scheme of things.

NE MD pummeled!

Yeah, the one thing that stands out to me both on the GEFS and GEPS is that the SE ridge is not locked in. It pops for a few days and then it gets knocked down for a few days. Just a couple days ago it was a locked in feature for the entirety of each ens run. Agreed about next week. Even the GEPS has a similar look, not as pronounced at H5 for middle of next week. It’s the kind of look where a SW could scrape us if timed nicely. After that we see a trough in the east starting to develop on both GEFS and GEPS.

Plus 6-7 members with accumulating snow to our south.

With most if not all telleconnections not on our side, i foresee 3 possible ways to score something moving forward. 1. Something on the front end. 2. A shortwave that is hard to model outside of 72hrs. Similar to what northern Georgia received on saturday. 3. A trailing wave riding a front. Similar to what the gfs showed yesterday. February, is still prime climo in these parts and it’s easier to score a fluke similar to the ones mentioned above. However, without telleconnectons on our side, as we get closer and enter March, it becomes very difficult to score even on a fluke. Especially with no real cold air source. Just some thoughts.

Yeah. If we could somehow knock the eastern ridge down before the beginning of March and get a few LPC's to ride under us, we'd at least have a chance at something. On a separate note, I'll be keeping any eye on next Tuesday. GFS and even the CMC to a lesser extent give a reinforcing shot of cold air to the region on Sunday. By the time our next system is moving in, there's still enough cold air around to provide some frozen. HPC seems to be in a decent location at onset. Something to keep an eye on anyway. Verbatim would be a quick snow/sleet/rain changeover as the HPC quickly departs.

Any hope on the eps this morning? I only have access to TT maps. GEFS and GEPS continue to knock down the the SE ridge in the next 11-13 days. GEPS knocks it down as early as Feb, 22. GEFS does it around Sun/Mon Feb, 23-24.