Not that it makes a difference for us but definite trend south for wed night/Thursday morning deal on op gfs the last 3 runs. Slower with S/w and faster with NS.
True, but if we have northerly winds and boundary pressing in from the north, lpc tracking south of us, it wouldn't really matter once precip started, right?
It's really astounding how the CMC, GFS, ICON are all semi close to an event, at least for northern areas, while the EURO is like on a completely different planet.
That's up from 2 of 50 at 12z
Baby steps, right?
If this is going to be a total non event, I hope the American models get their act together today and stop messing with us.
This is your week and your storm. Do a better job defending your storm man!
CMC might give us something positive to write about. At least for one more night.
It actually appears that they are all coming closer to a final solution. It’s pretty obvious. The artic front is lagging behind the s/w now across all guidance. Thus we have no real cold air source. The gfs and icon had the front coming in at the right time to provide cold and a nice HP to the north. They’ve lost that now. Lagging behind. The euro has always been lagging the front behind.
Yeah, 24hr precip panel for the period look worse than at 6z or 0z. .75 line went from southern md at 6z to southern va at 12z. Sounds like a good number of whiffs or supresssd looks.
GFS is closer. On to the CMC and EURO. My guess is the model war currently going on between gfs and euro will be resolved by tomorrow 12z if not sooner.