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MD Snow

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Everything posted by MD Snow

  1. MD Snow
    Call it just a blip but as next week is getting closer the looks both at 500 and at the surface are improving across guidance.
  2. MD Snow
    IMO the last few runs of the GFS and even the GEFS show hope for us being on the right side of the boundary at least once in the next 10 days. Past that anything can happen even with Ens. Overall I'm pretty encouraged this morning.
  3. MD Snow
    It's an op run but the 18z gfs shows something similar to what the eps was showing with a displacement of the pv south/hudson bay. Actually has legit cold here starting around Sunday, Feb 16. Interesting to see if the GEFS starts to hint at this moving over the next couple of days.
  4. MD Snow
    Yup. Given this winter, it's a real long shot. But it's our only shot at this point. Much is stacked against us. There's still a chance and as long as there's a chance, i'll stay interested. 6z GEFS (sucks) seems to be getting us on the right side toward the end of it's run. GEPS seems to get the boundary south of us for a period between Feb 14-18.
  5. MD Snow
    CMC sniffed out that Saturday was pretty much a non event a couple days ago. Was a big red flag for me, especially considering how good it's been of late. Feb 13-14 are the dates I have in my mind at a possible flip to a more favorable pattern. There are some signs that we may be on the right side of the boundary. If we see this trend badly over the next week or so, then bring on spring!
  6. MD Snow
    CMC hasn’t shown anything for 2 runs in a row now. It’s the second best model. Definitely a red flag. Still plenty of time.
  7. MD Snow
    It has shown it once a day for the past week and then the very next run is all rain and 60 Worth keeping an eye on. Could our fortunes be turning finally?
  8. MD Snow
    Gfs has another system with frozen to rain next Wednesday night.
  9. MD Snow
    I’m not buying the weekend thing until the Canadian gets back on board. To many whiffs showing up in the Ens still. Canadian had a big storm 2 nights ago and has completely lost it over the last 48hrs.
  10. MD Snow
    Not to mention that this particular event has the potential to be coming in at night time in early February.
  11. MD Snow
    Aren't we talking about the potential next Sunday? That's in like 6 days. Totally different airmass. This is saturday morning. Before precip moves in saturday night.
  12. MD Snow
    On the positive side, about 12/20 get at least an inch to or around the cities. At a 6 day lead, I'm more interested in that. Don't tell me at this point we all wouldn't be very happy to wake up to an inch of the white stuff on Sunday morning.
  13. MD Snow
    Seriously, thank you for posting something other than just some percentage color shades while saying, "Still no real shot at anything for another 10 days..."
  14. MD Snow
    At this point, i'm chasing snow flakes, ice pellets, rain that freezes, whatever little bit of winter this despicable winter can muster. 18z 12k nam has a slightly better cold push Wednesday night for areas north and west. Not a lot of precip though until the cold erodes.
  15. MD Snow
    CMC on board as well. Too early to hash out details. Lot's of weather going on this week and it will have an impact on what the weekend system has to offer us.
  16. MD Snow
    Saturday night/Sunday system shows up on the 12z gfs. HPC is sliding off the east coast as system gets to the MA. Not ideal. Still time for that to change. Any other winter and we'd be excited about this possible event. I'd imagine that if you slowed the NS down a bit it would allow the HPC to hang on longer thus allowing for more of a fresh cold air source. By the time the system gets to us, it's an old/stale cold air mass.
  17. MD Snow
    My attention is quickly turning to next Sundays potential. Go take a peak at hr180 of the 0z cmc. Gfs has something trying to get going in this timeframe as well along with the euro.
  18. MD Snow
    Incoming on 0z 12k NAM at the end of its run.
  19. MD Snow
    But we take...
  20. MD Snow
    Gfs hr 120!
  21. MD Snow
    Nam at range... but this look has potential. Front is still in the process of clearing the area.
  22. MD Snow
    Call me the eternal optimist but I could see how we could at least land a decent event between now and the middle of the month. There’s cold nearby. Multiple waves. All it would take is for the boundary to be south of us for one wave. I know it’s unlikely given the trend this winter. I think we’re probably at the height of our skepticism so far this year. Which will make it all the better if we actually can land an event.
  23. MD Snow
    That’s like 19/20 that start dc north with frozen. Surprising! Even some legit snow to mix to drizzle solutions.
  24. MD Snow
    At this point in this winter, nothing is a trend until we actually have some wintry precip falling from the sky.
  25. MD Snow
    Gfs gets mix even into cities Wednesday evening.
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