MD Snow

Through 54hrs RGEM is a hit for many north and west of DC.

ICON still mostly snow dc north and west. The outlier right now. Was a tick warmer than 12z though...

most recent 850 mb temps...

Not really when you're dealing with the NAM's. They just shifted the lows about 100 miles from where they had them at 12z.

3k looks better. Less amped...still snowing at 21z sunday north of dc... Edit- can't have the low running across the southern delmarva if we want snow into the cities.

12k is about 1-2" before the flip sunday morning for the cities. man, that is close...get that low to track 100 miles south through nc to about 100 miles off the coast of oc and we'd be bombed.

12k nam with snow breaking out at 15z sunday morning. The arctic boundary is pushing further southeast this run up in canada it's reflected in better looking 850's through 45hrs out. I'm beginning to think that we need to root for a stronger NS low...so far that's why we've seen improvements...

I'm sure some wouldn't mind waking up to this tomorrow morning. 3k with a little light wrap around...

Might not be able to keep up with it throughout the evening but here's the link just in case... https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/new/viewsector.php?sector=17&parm=850mb&underlay=1&source=1#

18z 12kNAM ramping up the coastal. 3mb deeper through 20hrs and closer to the coast compared to 12z. Will be interesting to see how this affects Sunday/Monday if at all. ....Through 36hrs 850's are further south than 12z.

Sleet much? I'll take a half inch.

Yeah, weird how it includes snow totals even east of 95 where it's radar shot shows just rain. Must be a lot of sleet. I'm fine with pingers all night.

Yeah, maybe one of the red taggers could chime in here but given the current 925 mb and 850 mb temps and surface temps around 33-34, I'd think areas north west of dc and 95 have a good chance at mixing tonight especially if precip is heavy. Take a degree away from the sun going down and then another with the heavy precip mixing some cold down and it could get interesting.

That's just because rates weren't as crazy as 17z. If we get heavy precip it'll mix and in places change over to snow tonight north and west of 95. 18z hrrr radar depiction at the start of it's run looks like major weak sauce compared to what is actually occurring at the surface right now.

I would think wwa's would be extended to just along 95 in the afternoon update given current temps in the low 30's and upper levels right around freezing as well. 18z hrrr keeps most north of dc frozen for the duration of the heaviest tonight.

Totally agree with you. To start march with the potential for three-four straight days of wintry weather is about as good as it gets. I'm not in the best place for the next two events but I'm enjoying tracking it almost as much as if I was. Hoping at least the northern crew can really cash in.

updated 850's. seems the bleed north has stopped for the time being.

latest 850 and 925mb temps...

Yup. The last three runs have had an ever so small creep north. Hopefully it reverses.

Icon with the weaker NS and it’s reflected with less cold and slightly warmer solution.

Most recent 850 mb temps...

In terms of strength of the monday storm, i'd hedge towards a weaker system in coming runs given how the storm tonight is bombing out. There's not enough space between waves for the monday storm to bomb out imo...

One key to this thing working out in our favor is rooting for the LP in canada to trend stronger and move in a more west to east trajectory. That will help to press the cold and have implications on the track of our storm. Here's a visual from the 3k at 53hrs compared to it's 6z run. Stronger low to our north, moving on a west to east trajectory will pump cold in from the northwest and help suppress the track of the storm. Something to watch in future runs. Notice even though the lpc is slightly stronger this run it is offset by a stronger lpc and cold push to our north.

Snow moving in baltimore north and west at 51hrs. It's coming in weaker. 850's pretty much the same. Still south of DC. Better cold press to our north west.

You know, some people on this forum will likely get three, maybe even four, straight days of accumulating snow to start the month of March. That is crazy.