MichaelJ

44/18.9 cloudy with occasional light drizzle.

Yes and just should keep things on perspective as to just how much we understand about our Atmosphere, not much. There are so many variable parameters that have to be collated into a cohesive solution and that does not even include the myraid of things we don't even know yet about our stochastic atmosphere

If the NAM amps this up again tomorrow, a lot of folks in the Triangle are going to get a LOT of sleet and ZR. However it is the NAM12K and I will wait for the 3K before I say it is likely to happen

Here is a good map of the reach of this CAD

I strongly disagree with this. IMO the Triad proper will see much more sleet and much less ZR because of the CAD keeping the 850's at or below freezing during the entire event.

Here is te latest projection for my area, mostly sleet it seems http://coolwx.com/modelts/images/nam/current/KGSO/prec.png

DT is SUCH a

Guys, the RGEM is almost always overdone on the temps and amount of qpf so I would disregard it for the present. Same goes for the 12KM NAM, use the 3KM because of it's higher resolution hones in more on the 2meter temps. The 3K NAM shows Triad mostly in the 31-33 temp range during a lot of the storm

Guys that is only until 7:00 PM saturday

Look at the HRRR just posted, not very impressive outside the mountains

Everybody needs to remember the Global models don't do as well this close to an event, rely more on the HRRR and Nam for now time

I know for people in Ga, SC, Chsrlotte and Raleigh this was a huge bust and I am sorry for you it was. One thing to learn from this is that Climo is very important when looking at model forecasts which do not take much of that into consideration. The favored areas may start out looking like they will not do well while other areas seem to be in the "bullseye" from 10, 5 or even 1 day away but the usual progression of things with the N/W trend, warm noses, and qpf totals will not be as predicted/expected. The rules are not going to change just because we want them to or some model tells us they will, "just this once". The NAM is awful over 48 hours but I would not bet against it under that time frame no matter what the Global models are saying.