Tatamy

I got two feet a year ago. I knew I was very unlikely to get anything substantive from this one. This was always going to be a coastal event assuming it would happen. I feel sorry for you guys on the coast with this latest turn of events on the models.

Ant - the shortwaves expected to be involved with this system were more completely sampled today. This was noted on this thread earlier. The new data went through the algorithms used by the models. Unfortunately the result of that is what we see.

FWIW the 12z ICON is still a good hit for the area with 5-10” along and S and E of I95

Huge 100+ mile difference in the new GFS run vs the last run of the Euro. One these is going to cave hard.

12z RGEM is slightly east of 6z. Still a good storm for the Jersey shore and out on LI.

You do realize that the NAM is not yet in its range - right? You want to start placing more weight on the NAM solutions on Friday.

Exactly.

If anything close to this were to happen or if the media starts throwing around the numbers we just saw I would not want to even consider the lines that will be forming at the grocery stores near you. The pre-existing supply chain issues would be an additional complication.

It’s on the high end of potential solutions. We will just have to watch future runs of this and the other models.

06z Euro is 18-24 “ in the metro at 10:1 ratios at 90 hours.

Next up 06z Euro at 7am.

If you’re near I95 it is too early to rule out anything. It’s the well north and west guys like myself who will likely get very little if anything from this one.

Two things to look for in today’s model runs will be better sampling of the shortwaves involved (looks to be already happening) and the dataset obtained from the scheduled recon out in the PAC. That data is expected to make it into the 0z runs tonight according to the NHC website.

Models are actually honing in on a solution. It’s good that we are starting to see a consensus of sorts shaping up. There is still time for all this to change. Based upon what I have been seeing on 500mb charts I really am not seeing a pathway for the higher amounts to come further inland. It kind of reminds me of the huge I287 gradient that set up with Boxing Day in 2010.

With this morning’s runs this event is shaping up to be significant south and east of the Driscoll Bridge on the Jersey shore and S&E of I95 elsewhere. It’s the reverse of what we see many times however this go around it appears to be the coastal areas turn for snow. Nearby inland suburbs get much less with a big time gradient setting up for snow amounts very close to the city. Places well to the north and west look to smoke cirrus. I would consider the Euro to be an outlier at this time with higher amounts to the north and west as compared to the other models.

?

06z GFS comes west. 6-12” for the Jersey shore, SI, Brooklyn, Queens, and LI. Higher amounts further east.

06z Icon is a nice hit for the Jersey shore, the city, and LI. 4-7” in those places with less further away from the coast.

06z NAM has several inches for the Jersey shore and central and eastern LI..

SLP at least 50 miles further east as compared to 18z.

They are sending Recon out into the PAC tomorrow: NOUS42 KNHC 251930 REPRPD WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL. 0230 PM EST TUE 25 JANUARY 2022 SUBJECT: WINTER SEASON PLAN OF THE DAY (WSPOD) VALID 26/1100Z TO 27/1100Z JANUARY 2022 WSPOD NUMBER.....21-056 AMENDMENT I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS 1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS. 2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: POSSIBLE MISSION ALONG TRACK 65 FOR 28/0000Z. II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS 1. FLIGHT ONE - NOAA 49 A. 27/0000Z B. NOAA9 01WSC IOP04 C. 26/1900Z (CHANGED) D. 30 DROPS APPROXIMATELY 60 NM APART WITHIN AREA BOUNDED BY 20.0N 180.0W, 20.0N 155.0W, 40.0N 155.0W, AND 40.0N 180.0W. E. 41,000 TO 45,000 FT/ 26/2030Z-27/0230Z 2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: A USAF RESERVE WC-130J AIRCRAFT AND THE NOAA G-IV AIRCRAFT MAY FLY TWO CONCURRENT ATMOSPHERIC RIVERS MISSIONS OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN PACIFIC FOR THE 28/0000Z SYNOPTIC TIME. 3. ADDITIONAL DAY OUTLOOK: A USAF RESERVE WC-130J AIRCRAFT MAY FLY ANOTHER ATMOSPHERIC RIVERS MISSION OVER THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL PACIFIC FOR THE 29/0000Z SYNOPTIC TIME.

Still east

06z Euro has run up to 90 hours. Looks very similar to the 0z run at this point. SLP to the south of Cape Hatteras might be a smidge to the east.

06z GFS still brings several inches to central and southern NJ and out on LI.

06z GFS looks to be holding serve at 500mb at this stage of its run as compared to 0z