Tatamy

8 minutes ago, BxSnowWx37 said:

To loop or not to loop that is the question??..its snowing in scranton again. So my guess is we snow most of the day,depending on where it decides to back in to the coast,it might be even more surprises esp out east.

The back edge of the snow has been nearly steady across eastern PA and eastern MD for the last two hours at least so you will definitely be in this for a number of hours to come.

31 minutes ago, Nibor said:

Some higher returns popping up over Central NJ into SE PA

It looks like an IVT has set up along the Delaware River going NW from Trenton towards my area.  This storm does not lack for surprises.  My visibility has dropped from 5 miles back down to 1.

1 1/2” new today.

15 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

we'll probably still see jumps through the 6z runs

The recon data that is gathered later will go into the 0z runs tonight.  Interesting how the GFS jumped last night at 0z after the data from yesterday’s flights were ingested.

1 minute ago, snywx said:

I think 6-10 within the city limits is a good forecast. Nassau/Suffolk border on east should be in line for an awesome event 12”+. Us up here In the great northwest should be in the 3-6” range. 

I have 1” new this morning and was forecast to get 1/2” for the entire day.  Big time fluff factor here.

Steady light snow continues.  27* with 1 mile visibility.  1” new OTG.  Big time fluff factor with this snow.

9 minutes ago, EasternLI said:

Some of the models showed that light snow starting, may not really stop. Just get heavier later. That could be possible and is a hallmark of the larger events too.

Mesos showed me getting an inch or so today.  Already 1/2” OTG.

Steady light snow- 1 mile visibility.

4 minutes ago, the_other_guy said:

Still with that huge cutoff

 

Someone is going to get screwed with this…the question is who?

I am in the screw zone and expect to be on the west side of the gradient.  In any case this is what it looks like out here at the current time.  

Snowing here with 1 mile visibility.

Snow is rapidly breaking out across south central PA with the overrunning.  Are we going to get an Obs thread set up for this?

4 minutes ago, jdj5211 said:

I would do really bad things to see 3 feet of snow in my backyard....

This is what 30” looks like (from 1/2016)

2 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said:

Sorry I deleted my post because I realize it probably wasn't necessary. 6+ is a nice storm but it is a bit painful when you have a low this strong and 24 inches is so close. 

Are you ready to shovel 24”?  I had that a year ago this weekend.  I will pass on that.

1 hour ago, North and West said:

Any consensus yet west of the city? I’m trying to figure out if I’m using my leafblower for this or to break out the sunglasses.


.

Check out the mesos (HRRR/RAP) for tomorrow for northern NJ.  If this overrunning happens you will be pushing snow from your driveway.

40 minutes ago, wthrmn654 said:

Recon plane took off from New Orleans/gulf area and looks like, heading eastbound.. 

That is the flight that will be sampling the western Atlantic for the 0z runs.  There are two flights scheduled to go out over the PAC as well.  Again the intention is for this data to make it into the 0z model suite.  The update for tomorrow is for two flights over the western Atlantic and two over the PAC.

36 minutes ago, MANDA said:

Definite improvements on 18Z NAM.  Does not do much to help us west of I95ers but much better look for bigger snows I95 south and east and across LI.  Window is closing for western and northern areas for anything more than a minor to perhaps moderate event.

I am out in Bethlehem, PA - not really expecting anything.  What is crazy are some of those EPS members.  By my count 10 of those 50 members would give me 12” +.  Brings new definition to the term “Go big or go home.”

06z Euro has 3-6” across the area with 6”+ across eastern LI and down closer to ACY in S NJ.  Lesser amounts to the N&W.

06z Euro shifts east

2 minutes ago, weatherpruf said:

Ok so since its the Euros we should take with a grain of salt, no?

No the Euro output cannot be discounted at this time.

22 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

The Kuchera ratios aren't happening except for maybe well inland. That's showing maybe 15-1 ratios for the coast. MAYBE we can do 12-1 here. The winds are going to break the dendrites apart. That said the Euro run was very encouraging that at least this isn't dead. And the other models really aren't far off from something a lot better. We just need the upper lows to close off 6 hrs or so sooner. And we need some kind of help from the southern stream.

Upton is loltastic with the snow ranges from nothing to 21" for me. But I guess that really is the 10 and 90% threshold at this point. 

The wild card in all this is what will come from the data collected on the recon flight today and the 3 additional flights tomorrow.  The data from today’s flight is expected to reflect in the 0z model suite.

23 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said:

The fact it's on its own. 

Yes it is

3 minutes ago, USCG RS said:

Kuchera

This would come from 20:1 ratios.  Do you really think the ratios go that high?

6 minutes ago, wthrmn654 said:

Wow they have dropped 28 dropsondes so far

. 

Wait to tomorrow when they send out 3 planes.  1 out to the Atlantic and 2 out to the PAC.  Another day of model gyrations coming up.

18z Euro is 6-12” from the city S and E and 3-6” to the N and W.  What is not to like about that?

The Euro was the model that went nuts with this one in recent runs.  The other models were further east or going that direction.  The NAM went big on this this morning for that one run.