TheManWithNoFace
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Everything posted by TheManWithNoFace
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Can we not frost this week pretty please?
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@bluewave how do those anomalies compare to May 2020 when we had frosts into mid-May?
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Solid D is western Hunterdon. Six weeks of cold and a -10" departure.
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If this thing busted the other way it would've been atrocious north of 78. I think with snow you've got more wiggle room to be wrong, but you don't want to be a little wrong in the wrong direction with ice.
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Yep. I was 10 and I remember it like it was last winter. In Mercer county you could walk on top of the snow/ice without leaving a footprint. My father used a spade to carve ice cubes and made a legit igloo
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SIAP but has there been any conclusions on ratio for this one? I'm in Hunterdon County and the snow was like dust. Flakes were always tiny, busted up dendrites. It didn't look like high ratio snow.
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Yeah exactly. Someone posted a graphic about subsidence over Sussex/Morris, I think that's the idea but with a second relative max behind it.
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Interesting that there's snow showers across C and NNJ with no radar returns. We moist.
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Expecting 4" In Flemington which will double my seasonal total. Thrilled!
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If you look at some of the QPF outputs on the mesos, there are some indications of a local qpf max in NWNJ or nePA. I have a hunch we might have a dual band feature with this, and Sussex/Warren might actually wind up with more thank Hunterdon/Somerset, which would sit in subsidence between bands.
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Totally is like that. Not the first time I've seen that acronym tossed around today. Long Atlantic moisture fetch being tossed north towards an aggressive frontal boundary.
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So you're only expecting .25qpf in Sussex/Warren co?
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Sharper trough, higher heights off the coast. Come on. Do it.
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Beat me to it. EE rule in effect!
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We stress.
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I agree. Max Baroclinicity + phase + capture = HECS
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What is with all the posts criticizing and analyzing people's behavior while model watching the last week? This post above brings zero to the conversation and frankly therefore neither does my responding to it, but can I ask everyone to let the rest of the forum do their thing and reject your inner authoritarian tendencies to tell people how to feel? "Etched" in stone btw
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Mod snow in three bridges. Back roads whitening. Looking for 2". Radar looks good to our SW.
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Grassy surfaces whitening in Bridgewater. Flake structure is ugly. Not cold enough yet upstairs.
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Flipping in 3 bridges. Late but the radar looks good. Expecting 2 and a snow covered cold winter weekend. Good enough.
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Hunterdon County NJ. By the end of this month it will likely be true that areas of South Carolina are ahead of my seasonal snowfall. I'm about 3" ytd.
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Kocin Ucellini they write the book Northeast Snowstorms.
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Heres the thing, Walt. If people wanted to get together on a weather forum to talk about partly cloudy and 45F, it's not anyone's prerogative to stop them. This whole discussion is totally bizarre. Nobody agrees with the other guy, thanks for doing your thing.
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There's subtle input differences that lead to a distinct bifurcation of potential outcomes.
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january 3rd potential coastal grazer
TheManWithNoFace replied to forkyfork's topic in New York City Metro
Looking for the reasoning between the GFSs northward expansion of the precip field, I note a vortmax at H5 held back a bit in the evolution from the trough axis. I think that this keeps mid level confluence from pinching down across the northern mid-Atlantic. I think that's the big difference between the GFS and NAM solution. Also note that Jetstream aloft is unimpressive on all modelling, lending credence to the dryer solutions.
