powderfreak

It’s a good microcosm of society today… social media has led to hyperbolism to the n-th degree. There’s no middle ground, pick sides and stay with it. Life is a team sport now, ha. Every time you say something it needs to be a bit wilder and out there than the last time. I mean this post I’m writing wouldn’t have even been allowed to happen 10 years ago … off-topic, bounce it.

One person said HubbDave may frost and another post quoted a NWS risk of a more widespread frost? That translates to everyone in SNE expecting a frost?

Killington is sort of like CNE? It's like Winni latitude. Not sure how many 3k elevations are south of there. Monadnock?

Doom and gloom if you like cold and snow. That's the important part. The assumption is you do enjoy cold, snow, winter. I honestly can't blame people who are beaten down though. It's been a tough few years for some folks on here. And it is getting warmer. I mean, we haven't seen a below normal month up here since last November. But it still is going to snow, it's just interesting to me how much warmer than normal it seems to be on average. Though I totally get people see that as doom and gloom; that's not what I'm trying to do. I'd talk about it the same if we were below normal every month since last November.

I hear, ya. I know you are dreading it. Cheer up, it's snowing at 3k feet .

lol I am starting to worry about your mental health. Everything is like a wet fart.

Better mid-level lift was down south of here. We largely saw super cooled water droplets at 29F and decent icing. Mansfield is all iced up with a trace of snow.

They'll go for it if they can for sure. I think central and southern VT are going to get the best snow this evening now. Vort max is a bit south. However, up north here we should see a bit of upslope response as the core of the cold comes in on NW flow.

Using the former Mansfield COOP, where "new" snowfall records ended in 2018 when WCAX stopped having a human up there 24/7... there's been traces of snowfall in late August up there. In 1986, 4.0" fell on September 16th. That's the earliest like legit snowfall. I will say, I don't think there was any real accumulating snow in September in the 2000s. The average date has been moving later and later, with the past 20 years seeing first trace or higher happening in October. Now that doesn't mean there weren't quick passing snow showers though, like what was caught on video at Jay. But it seemed to be a thing that happened with some semi-regularity 40-50 years ago, accumulating in September. Another thing is like, there's probably plenty of early season snow showers like that, which weren't seen or recorded. That Jay snow shower was wild, because it probably precipitated for only 10 minutes, if that. And just happened to be someone there with a phone. It could've happened on any number of peaks too and not be caught. I often think of that with regards to weather observations. Before there was social media and cell phones who can capture video, upload it immediately, etc... no one probably heard about these things in the past. They definitely happened, but that's why the Mansfield COOP data was so important. It was a stable daily reporting cadence at 4,000ft by a human. And why the MWN observatory is so important to continue. Today... without a cell phone and in the right place at the right time, would we have seen the snow accumulation on Mansfield? What about if I wasn't able to capture video of it this evening to share? Not it's like "pics or vid or it didn't happen." Technology makes observations of transient weather so much better today. This stuff happened back in the day, earlier in the season too, but it's hard to track those data points. I miss the Mansfield COOP daily "new snow" reading for these things.

Thats a crazy velocity scan. Jeez.

Good chance of at least rimed peaks next day or so. Ironically, despite the departures, today was the exact average/mean date of first snow on Mansfield. October 9.

I’m coming down from top of Spruce and it was snowing nicely up there. Not sticking but I was right at the real snow line. You can see in this photo how the visibility changes to that bright white, low vis band where it’s 100% good flakes and snow. It was right around 3,200ft.

I’ve got -SN at 3,100ft.

First snow last night on Mansfield. Snow down to 3,600ft. Currently at 3:30pm we are sitting 35F at both the top of the Quad and Gondola wx stations. Still some outside the windows up at the Cliff House when I was up there late morning.

Remove a little bit of the drip each day until there’s zero precip and it’s sunny.

There's something going on there in the models though. GFS is more amplified. GGEM is more suppressed.

Nice invigorating morning… getting first look at actual snow put a little hop in my step. Love the warm sunny days but still get that child-like feeling of “wow, that’s actually real snow” . Its melting rapidly at 3,600ft. Raining off the roof of the Cliff House.

First very light coating!

I think we will struggle to radiate. Squally/showers and clouds en route in response to the vort max and CAA. 39/37.

Jesus, lol. Already 35F. We still have some clouds and there was a rain shower about an hour ago. Still in the 40s at 42F here.

33F first frost, frozen vehicles and grass.

I usually don't follow the tropics, but I find myself becoming fascinated with this storm. Things have been so boring weather-wise this summer, but we just finished one devastating storm a week ago and now another has formed... with maybe additional in the pipeline?

I mean, it’s also not that exciting as a region so I get that lol… but it’s a start. It’s going to happen eventually. It’s the time of year when folks start stroking the weenie in the middle of the street over 3-minute graupel showers. Or at least it used to be on the forums. We’ve all been a bit more jaded and beaten down (or just older) than a decade ago, ha.

Its the same progression every year lol. When the weather has been as boring as it has, need to find something fun.

Some Thursday AM whitening of the peaks? Given the cold core aloft and timing of the best synoptic scale forcing approaching our western cwa around 21z Weds, still thinking some graupel and a rumble or two of thunder is possible within the heavier convective elements. As dynamics with s/w energy moves east, a period of upslope rain and snow showers is likely on Weds night into Thurs morning, with a light snow accumulation above 2500 feet. Little change has been noted in the latest thermal profiles with progged 850mb temps between -3C and -5C and 925mb temps approaching 0C for a time on Weds night. Our latest total snowfall girds indicate up to an inch possible High Peaks of the Dacks and along the summits of the northern/central Greens from Mt Mansfield to Jay Peak. In addition, with progged 850mb temps hovering near 0C on Weds have utilized the mtn max t adjust tool to highlight much cool temps at summit level, compared to the warmer valleys. Highs generally mid/upper 30s to mid/upper 50s depending upon your elevation.