powderfreak

It looked pretty consistent yesterday at 12z. It is almost comical how even in CT there’s heavy showers along the Mass border north of Kev, and then heavy stuff south of 84 too... but along 84 in general looks like light high based stuff.

Front is through up here... hit 84F for a torch max around lunch time, now down to 72F at 3pm. 60s are just NW of here in northern Champlain Valley and moving this way, even some 50s outside Montreal.

I mean the models had what they had yesterday... they are all saved in the thread ha, ha. I guess it is go meh every single time regardless of output 24 hours out.

Lol... DDH ASOS in S.VT is at 1.23” in roughly the past 80 minutes with +RN continuing. Band looks like it could be good for 2”+.

It better rain some more. I do not want to lose to emotional forecasting but that radar needs to get going this afternoon.

58F here too, but it feels humid now for sure. 58F is higher that any normal summer min.

Ha, if that happens, I’ll join you with Stein being real there.

Add in worrying if your neighborhood will burn to the ground because someone tosses a cigarette butt out the car window... or maybe because there’s a gender reveal party down the street? Its crazy when it’s like “A lowered Honda Civic bottomed out pulling into the Walmart parking lot and the resulting sparks burned an entire county to the ground...”

Dews really ramp up tomorrow, no surprise there'll be some heavy rain with widespread 70-75F dews down there.

I guess this explains the narrow torch zone, ha.

Yeah it's a weird one.... hottest looks to be an axis from C.NY through C.VT into N.NH. Not often MPV at 1,200ft is 85F while BTV at 300ft is 75F. Gradient is pushing into the northern Champlain Valley now... Massena, NY is 61F lol.

I’ve been there, ha. That’s what I was saying, like when you get 2 months of failed snow events, even if the models show you at 6-12” with 24 hours to go, your mind starts with the defense mechanisms... it’ll go south, banding will go north, you start almost making up reasons why the models are wrong. We’ve all been there but I know it takes a good face slap by you or Scooter to snap out of that unscientific line of thinking, ha. Looking at 12z I’d go like 1/3rd to 2/3rds of an inch for Tolland County.

Then what are you basing your ideas off of? Persistence? Fear? Perpetual sinking air that the models can’t see over N.CT that’s like a standing wave of sink since May?

12z UKMET is pretty wet. We’ll see what Euro has later. GGEM ICON

Ha. Who said jacks and floods? You’re a trip. I guess my point is the guidance looks fine but I get how the mind plays into it. It’s happened to all of us when every snow event falls apart for two months, even looking right at one your mind sees how it fails.

I haven’t looked at anything but know you are forecasting with emotion. Actually, just looked at 12z... the 3km NAM, 12km NAM, GGEM, ICON, UKMET all have 0.50”< for you... 12z GFS is delayed by NCEP. ECM isn’t out yet. We’ll see. But right now from a guidance perspective there would be no reason to think it doesn’t water your lawn unless forecasting based on pessimism. It’s not a flood forecast or whatever you want to spin it, but there’s no reason looking at every single 12z model that it won’t be a decent rain of 1/3-2/3”.

Just beaten down by Mother Nature... “everywhere else will rain but me.”

Fairly certain no matter what the set up, Kev will assume no rain regardless of modeling until he actually gets a soaking rain. It’s like late in a snowless winter, no one expects it to happen. Hope that poor guy gets some rain.

Colorado web cams FTW this morning, ha.

Looks like it’s mostly done for now on live cam.

Man, Crested Butte in Colorado got smoked. Still green leaves and 26F in +SN, lol.

Ah yeah if that’s the case then lol. I just didn’t see any comparison at all to anything else in that study, just a vacuum look at Sturgis. But these days I guess nothing is truly in a vacuum. I’ll have to read up on their past work, I’m sure Twitter is highly entertaining on this too, haha.

Yeah I didn’t read the study trying to make that point or reference a comparison to any other type of gathering. I don’t agree with its numbers but even just mentioning a possible study of Sturgis, people seem to assume the authors have said it was worse than other things? University spread seems like it may be similar... certain schools are getting decimated and sent home where it happens.

Yeah it would be from the bars and indoor stuff if it’s there. The outdoor stuff is a hard sell. Close proximity, indoors, no masks, I mean we saw what that one wedding in Maine did recently. The party at Killington recently. If it happens, it happens indoors.

Casper, Wyoming. Not bad for September 8th.