powderfreak

Great AFD, and love the last part about the Watch decision. Very reasonable to think it may be Advisory snow but potential exists for more. .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... As of 324 PM EDT Tuesday...Active weather returns mid-week as an upper trough digging into the northern Plains this afternoon will track into the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley Wednesday, and then into the Northeast Thursday and Thursday night. Strong south/southwesterly flow ahead of the attending cold front will usher in PWATs up to 1" with rain becoming widespread across northern New York by early afternoon and spreading eastward into Vermont by early evening. Hereafter as the upper trough becomes negatively tilted, secondary cyclogenesis occurs near the Delmarva Peninsula stalling the fronts eastward progression as the newly formed surface low tracks into southern New England by 12z Thursday. Rain will change to snow across northern New York from 06- 12Z with the frontal boundary likely draped through the Champlain Valley come sunrise Thursday. As the surface low slowly trudges northeast to the Maine coast by the end of the day, rain continues to transition to snow across VT during the morning hours and continues into Thursday afternoon before tapering to higher elevation snow showers Thursday night. Based on current ensemble and deterministic model output, median snowfall amounts across northern New York continue to be in the 6- 10" range, but due to a faster changeover to snow across northern Vermont the potential now exists for 4-7" across the northern Champlain Valley and portions of the central/northeast Vermont. With this in mind, have expanded the previously issues Winter Storm Watch to include these areas, knowing full well that some areas will likely transition to an advisory, but acknowledging that the potential exists for higher amounts. &&

I like that forecast. Western side of the Spine heavy favorites for sure but also northern Champlain Valley. That map is very close to the 12z Euro Snow Map.

I heard the side effects are minimal except you may feel a desire to upgrade Windows on your PC for about the first 24 hours.

I mean, I don't know how they measure their snow but even still.... I had the same number of inches on my board/table at 750ft in a valley bottom as they have at 2,000+ feet. Normally ski area snowfall is an upper elevation reading/number as well that reflects the skiing experience. Wildcat and Pinkham Notch can get some monster storms. Not so far this winter it seems.

Meanwhile in Canada, the largest ski resort on the planet in terms of skier visits is shutting down again. British Columbia going back to closures for non-essentials it sounds like... gyms, bars, restaurants, ski areas effected.

Yeah I think we could do something with that. But yeah unless we get a couple biggies, this spring will be the “how long do snowmaking runs last?” type of spring. Last year would’ve been skiing glades into early May.

18z NAM with rain to a prolonged period of sleet then snow... big snow in NNY.

Good old New England in late March.... snowy morning with several hours of light to moderate snow down at MVL in the valley and several hours of moderate to heavy snow at the ski area. Now the sun is out and it's getting warm and torching away the fresh few inches. The plaza heaters aren't on but as soon as the sun came out in full that 3" just torched away in under two hours and now the pavers are just dry. No trace that it was a plowable snowfall except for the piles, ha.

Agreed with both your posts. I think a bit weaker and east. Maybe a NAM/ICON type solution? Though just saying those two models as more possible than ECM/GFS/GGEM reads weird.

Yeah for sure. Champlain Valley cools off very quickly usually in those situations and up to the west slopes. From what I can see it looks more like a sleet profile east of the Spine. There's definitely a climatology norm for upslope cooling assist on the western slopes in marginal CAA situation. It's sort of like a very mini-2011 style with low tracking through SNE/E.NNE at this junction with cold air coming in but the low level cold seems to usher in first down the Champlain Valley.

Euro is still west but it's ticked east a touch.

Interesting needle threading event possible Thursday... The big 3 models... GFS is by far the furthest east with accumulations. Need a tick eastward from EURO and the GGEM is close. 12z GGEM 12z EURO 12z GFS

Big hit on the 12z GFS

The whiteouts have been incredible this morning with the wind and snow. Legit car stopping whiteouts like I posted in the NNE thread. When the gusts come through the visibility goes to pretty much zero, even on foot walking around the ski area you have to just turn away from it and let it pass, ha. Looks like the upslope pulse is winding down. About 3" of what feels like 10:1 snow... small flakes and some graupel it seemed and very wet initial inch.

Yeah you get rocked on southerly flow it seems.... good mixing there on that direction coming down off MWN/Presidentials. Today's much windier here on the east slope than yesterday. Yesterday the south wind was all up high over the inversion... stayed 2,500ft+.

Seems like a surprisingly dense 3” or so at 1500ft here. Hard to be sure with the wind but that’s what I’d estimate. Has decent water content... 10:1 probably. Pretty close to HRRR runs yesterday evening.

Just full on blizzard conditions. We stopped a couple of times on RT 108 just dead stop in whiteout conditions. Couldn't see anything. Stopped in middle of 50mph zone, grabbed a shot while waiting for the whiteout to pass. Love me a good ol' Mansfield upslope morning. Like a mini-winter storm. Over on the other side of the resort seemed sheltered from the wind a bit by the hotel. They probably turned off the heated walkways in all this spring weather, ha.

Dumping snow in town, not much accumulation but world is white again. Roads are terrible.

Latest HRRR has a period of snow tomorrow morning. Cosmetic snowfall possible.

Sweet. Ski Town vibe.

Inversion mixed out on the high elevation eastern slope. From low 30s and ZR...to 38F now and 40G60 out of the SW.

Can tell the ground is still frozen... just monster pooling of water on the ground everywhere. Everyone is now a proud new owner of a swimming pool.

Might put some lipstick on the pig late tonight and tomorrow with an upslope pulse, ha.

I actually went out under my own free will. When I walked out of the office in my ski gear people just started laughing and shaking their heads. Last day of season for Sensation Quad so I wanted to get a ride in.

Strong south wind blowing rain sideways through the base area over here. It’s inspiring outside. And I hear ya on the humidity. We radiate well in summer so as soon as the sun goes behind the hill it cools off real nice along the river. But if dews are high and it’s cloudy, that temp isn’t dropping. Those are the only evenings I turn my AC on. Even those 93F days in May was such a dry heat that temps would drop like 30 degrees in 2 hours and it was comfy again.