powderfreak

Deform all the way back here. Not bad.

It’s odd, it’s sort of warm out with some dim sun. Snow is sliding off the sides of the cars and compressing. Up to 28F. 3” though on the flat surfaces. It’s that super clumpy fluff.

I've got a good feeling about this given the snow in town on these light returns. Absolutely maximized dendritic growth. If we can get 30dbz in here I bet it'd be up to 2"/hr or even more. It's crazy how good it's snowing on these 15dbz returns. Can see moisture building west. Just measured a clean 3" so far.

This is incredibly picturesque snow in town. Can't believe how hard it's snowing with very little radar return. Like a down pillow was ripped open. These flakes are like a half inch to an inch diameter. Some Hallmark movie sh*t.

Looks like 2-2.5” of fluff in town. Trees are stacked.

Yeah, the official ASOS sites have gone 2sm visibility at MPV and MVL…2.5sm BTV and 1.25sm SLK. East includes 9sm at BML and 10sm visibility at HIE. The larger scale lift moving eastward at the ASOS spots.

Good diving shortwave with gentle WAA light snows trying to get going. Not going to amount to much but solid mood snows for some?

Storm/individual/ensemble progs in the 950s to 970s, with the cold pattern pressing down/south… there’s going to be a gradient flow with that. It may not be a cold month in some parts of the northeast… but it’s been lurking nearby with solidly below normal in the means for parts of the North Country. A bombing low mixing with that persistent cold is a solid winter storm for someone. Wind and snow.

I walked right into that... lobbed it up, damn. Well played

Certainly not super happy about listening to folks from Boston talking about how much snow they just got while riding on the chairlifts, ha... just love the chase and what happens, happens. Even my wife wishes I would get worked up about some things... not dramatic enough .

I guess what I was saying is in a 4-5 day lead time, even with a recent model run trend (one run really) that goes a certain way... if the aggregate trend over 24 hours is still in a westward lean/direction this far out in time, we can build on the positive trend. In the final 36 hours we can still have a move as big as the one at 6z and 12z from the previous day/evening... everyone just needs to keep it in striking distance.

It's possible the previous 12-18 hours of runs were a bit of a burp and this keeps on being like yesterday's model runs. Off-shore with E.NE in that cold conveyor belt... instead of the couple runs of highly amped members. Who knows, should be fun tracking. If we go back to yesterday's runs and look at 18z ensembles today, it's still a positive trend but not as drastic as 6z/12z today.

Looks like a two part deal... the gentle warm air advection -SN on SW flow aloft and SE flow at the surface through like 7-8am. Then there's some stuff with the cold front as the SFC wind veers SW to W to NW throughout the day tomorrow. Snow growth should be fairly optimal given the H85 to H7 temperatures. Probably a 2-4" fluffer once tomorrow evening rolls around?

It's one of the great benefits of the numerous smaller "snows" that happen in the mountain zones. It's crazy how even a half inch of feathery crystals can make it look like the whole snowpack just fell looking out over a yard or field. Puts the "sparkle" back into the top layer of the snow.

That 700mb gradient would smoke eastern Mass.

955mb lol.

Yeah man look at those H7 temps and you can see it... it'd be just west of that sharp gradient IMO. Once into that -10C to -12C at 700mb it's just ripping dendrites. I think it would be in the CT River Valley in NNE to be honest, riding the VT/NH border. Like Litchfield County CT up the Upper Valley VT/NH. That'll be a fun map to watch, the 700mb thermal gradient.

I'm 100% with you that the jackpot is where ever mid-level banding is... regardless of how fast it's moving, if those current runs are anywhere close to right, there will be a NW deform fluff band. The temperatures on the cold side of the storm are just about perfect for major snow growth. When 850-700mb temps are like -10C to -20C out in the deform zone, look out for those 1.0" QPF but 20-24" of snow. The trick is, does that defom band end up over BOS or the Cape in a far east solution, or is it over ALB or something.

For sure man, I do the same thing. The worry up here is always east. We chatting. I totally get the feeling of averaging a good amount of snow but never truly jackpotting. Just steady as she goes.

I guess my point was being concerned with only getting a foot of snow and meso-scale maxes/mins seems premature given how far the models have changed in the last 12 hours alone. I would sign on a dotted line right now for a foot of snow regardless of what people east or west get, ha. Be interesting to see how many people would sign for that right now.

Or it tracks up the CT Valley and it rains.... or goes back to wide east and sniff cirrus like yesterday's runs. Plenty to be concerned about but getting a foot of snow seems like something that wouldn't be a concern at this point .

Can be applied to all models (I'm not defending the ICON, ha). Just "inconsistent but sometimes ok" sounds like a good weather model description.

Nice moon setting behind the mountain this morning.

Maybe not at this lead time. But from yesterday to today, that’s pretty sizeable but you are totally right. It’s probably not that big a deal at this time frame. It’s not like 36 hours out. 18z 06z

It’s been pretty damn cold IMO just anecdotally. -12F this morning leaving the driveway.