powderfreak

It is pounding snow, this is nice. Looks like a mid-level pivot point.

Nice signs of a meso-band trying to form in this area.

Yeah snow growth is pretty poor here. Seems to be precipitating fairly efficiently but no more than 8-10:1 ratios I'd imagine? Pretty dense at the mountain, which is what is needed.

Seeing some meso-band signs streaking SW to NE. Looks to be nosing over J.Spin.

I skinned a run with Lahiff in a November powder day on Mansfield probably like a decade ago... good dude. The whole crew is awesome. Good blocked flow this morning, your neighborhood must be doing pretty good early on. Got about 1.5" at the ski area base so far. More like 3" up higher. First part was elevation dependent.

Not going to lie, I don't like the orientation of that southern convection developing. I'd rather that be more south-to-north rather than an axis of west-to-east. Disrupting the moisture feed from the Gulf and south, IMO. On the plus side, much of the precip so far seems anafrontal. Not much in the warm sector but cold side of the FROPA has been seeing the bulk of the lift/mid-level fronto.

Before the snow, some gratitude for the local snow surfaces team and all groomers in the east. What a difficult 7-10 day stretch in a difficult winter. They have done what the institutional knowledge and machine can do to bring a skiable surface amid very unfavorable snowpack quality and depth.

Hopefully we get this cold -15C at 850mb upslope as that will be the difference maker for the mountains for snow totals. Upper level trough and energy swinging through over good low level flow and residual moisture. It’s progressive but when the 850mb level at ridgetop or just above is squarely in the DGZ at -15C… we usually fluff pretty well. Tall DGZ in region of max lift above the terrain gets the snow going but add in upper level support and it could snow hard for a time.

See I was going to say that’s a solid NAM run, both 3km and 12km. Kuchie which is more sensitive to boundary layer but also goes real high when it gets cold. 10:1

Oh there’s definitely a time and place. Going down to the lake in CT, spending the day floating around for hours with family. Absolutely. But also enjoy it more since my folks put central A/C in down there lol. I dislike it for most of the day to day activities though up here. Working outside on the mountain when it’s 76/70, hazy, stagnant air bringing out the bugs in force… no thanks. Hiking it’s no bueno, mountain biking nah, even golfing… I prefer to walk when golfing but high dews and it’s cart riding time. The only benefit to me is for swimming but still not a huge fan of getting out of an ice cold river feeling refreshed and then sweating again on the walk up home. I do enjoy the novelty of it at first, but after a while it’s the same as brutal cold. Daily life with sub-zero temps over and over is just as annoying to me as daily life with dews near 70F. It has a time and place but consistently? No thanks.

People only like that stuff if they have A/C to hide from it… I’d give some of the high dew crowd more credit if they weren’t so obsessed with A/C. Fill the house with dews, breathe it in as they say .

I’d go. Looks good there and Saddleback can actually get some NW flow snow of any place in ME.

Looks like a good right side up storm. Start as paste then end with champagne on top. The best ones for skiers.

May be uncertainty nearby though. Might prefer to change everyone to a headline at the same package issuance to avoid confusion. But in general no one in the north will alter what they do whether there’s a warning or not, ha. I could see it mattering more in suburbia/urban corridor to get the word out? It could also just be 4-7” and Advisory level to be honest?

Euro is pretty weak on the whole with moisture.

GFS QPF and Snow.

Definitely more progressive and later phasing on the actual low but RGEM wasn’t bad. The Greens up here should pack in some snow tomorrow morning with the mid-level Fronto. What’s going to happen is what normally happens… the NGreens will go longer duration while Whites will get it in shorter duration. By Sunday morning I bet it’s fairly similar for the mountains all across the North.

It’s about the overall look. Not the actual values. I didn’t think he mentioned totals anyway. The further east the better the ratios in spots too. A look at 0.75-1.00” can be 9-14” if the last half is cold NNE fluff.

You can really start to feel the strength and warmth of the sun this time of year. Sometimes it's easy to personally dismiss SAD/seasonal affective disorder effects but then I realize that bright sunny afternoons this time of year are almost euphoric. Hard to beat that spring sun to be honest.

I thought that was for 2023? It's for this season!?

I truly am not sure what to think. The models have been jumping around quite a bit. It's going to snow, that's for sure as rain is now off the table. I do question if we get the QPF amounts shown on some of these progs to reach those higher BTV forecast amounts. The mid-levels don't close off and it's a positively titled trough. Great frontogenesis from the strong thermal gradient but still not a set-up that screams high-end snowfall with the open waves aloft and progressive nature. We'll see. I like a widespread 6-12" for most of us posters, with best chance of 12"+ being the Spine depending on how the backside upslope goes.

Grew up at Gore, it'll always be a special nostalgia type place to me. Hope they get slammed hard.

Seriously! Changed my mood today lol.

That was a good run. Big difference in these two panels. 12z 18z

I’m so stoked. Forget winter… let’s go!