powderfreak
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Everything posted by powderfreak
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Looks like a homeless encampment while his kid measures snow on the tents. -
I’m driving to Scooter’s house, ha. Gonna see a tent set up in his backyard with me in full arctic camping gear.
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Up to 3 whole Fahrenheit’s at 12:30pm at MVL ASOS. This month has been legit. Heating bill will be unreal (but not fake unfortunately).
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Haha maybe add an inch between friends?
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Yeah I'd think it ends up more like KBED... near where Ray and Will live on that axis. But it's still so early. Maybe within 48 hours we can get a better picture. I just looked at the GEFS and they've been incredibly consistent in the means. KBED QPF is 0.50" and last 3 runs are 0.46", 0.50", 0.52". 4 runs back was 0.74". But for 4 cycles it looks almost identical on the QPF progs to be honest. Pretty decent consistency.
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The deform likes to find the QPF gradient on the models or be just west of it... so I'd agree with that.
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GEFS... some members are bigger back to NY State and there are a fair amount of clean whiffs to create this mean.
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When you first move north, you keep that coastal synoptic storm mentality that’s climatology for most of the urban/suburban population centers. Need the larger setups to work out or it won’t snow. That’s when you start looking for members of the SREFS or various ensembles. Another decade later and you watch it like you’d watch a close sporting event/game, even if they aren’t your favorite teams.
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It's true. When the 6-8"+ zone is so big, places can afford movement and still get a healthy snow. Maybe the jackpot and higher level amounts shift around, but there's a large swath of impactful snows... so its moving into a territory where many folks can rest assured of at least a solid snowstorm even if it falls apart in one direction or another.
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It's certainly a long way to go in model land. The over confidence in a solution develops in these systems that are tracked from Day 7-10 when you have seen days of runs (but yet it's still days away). Does the jackpot zone remain the same for the final 4 days of model runs? That's hard to do, but the biggies sometimes follow the consistent pattern. It's hard to tell how this plays out.
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That's what I've taken away from it in the North Country too. The axis has become more WSW to ENE instead of SSW to NNE directions.
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Thanks guys! I (obviously) don't know population numbers that well, but damn. That's an incredible amount of people.
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The population affected is massive there. I mean 15 million people easy in that axis? I have no idea to be honest but that's as good a run as it gets for a big ticket shut down event for a LOT of humans.
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What a classic I-95 corridor, big city snowstorm on the EPS. 50-member mean just smoking the coastal plain and high population areas from PHL to NYC to HFD to PVD to ORH to BOS to PWM. Just a classic big deal impact axis there. KU style and high population areas affected.
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Great midweek afternoon on the hill. If there's one big difference from last winter, it's that midweek feels like midweek again. When people need to physically report to work and school Monday through Friday, it definitely is a different dynamic. Last winter was steady crowd levels 7 days a week, no real ebb or flow. This season it's big weekends and light volume Monday through Friday.
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That fizzled… maybe a quarter inch more? Good fluffer though just over 3”. Suns coming out now.
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All TWC talk in the other thread… this link has all the feels. Current weather run on old school Local on the 8’s. This is a Stowe screenshot. https://www.weatherdaddy.us/?q=Stowe%2C+VT
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That is mind blowing given how cold it’s been up north here this month. Tomorrow is another day with a high of like 5F and a low of -20F.
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All we ask for is a participation trophy. I’d take 3-6” and run. 12z EURO was the best, others get crushed but if we could snag 6-10” of mid-level goodies then that’s awesome.
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That’s the one! Big flake with his little friend.
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Hard to get a more forum wide look than that.
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Yeah you wait the whole local forecast just to see that one panel show snow. Then I’d go back to Sportscenter for Stuart Scott (RIP) before leaving for school lol. I think many of us snow weenies in the late ‘80s and ‘90s rolled that way between TWC and ESPN .
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Local on the 8’s… is it a big snowflake or a little snowflake.
