powderfreak

Ha, it was solidly above normal at the absolute best time of year. Above normal, during the climo period when snow becomes absolutely off-the-table but not before summer heat, is great. Best type of weather in that period. Highs in the 70s are the desired, but boring outcome here. Apparently MVL hit 71F today, never came close at the mountain though. Another day found it’s way into that 70-79F zone in the valley. The warm season happy zone without needing AC or heat. Comfortable.

Long range is for sure suspect to change but we roll with the current data. Can’t be stubborn in meteorology (no one likes that), and need to adjust expectations as new modeling comes in. It could go torch, but so far that persistent low height feature over the maritimes and adjacent NE North America seems hard to argue with. Enjoy the heaters when they come?

Euro EPS 10-14 day mean also seems to indicate ridging central, troughing northeast. We'll see, hopefully some warmth can sneak in from time to time like this weekend. But persistence seems to favor the NE/Maritime trough.

Just a parade of troughs after some brief warmth this weekend? Some of these H5 loops on various models seem to think we continue to experience lower heights while ridging stays in the middle of the country. Day 5 Day 10 Day 14

Lawn obsession is definitely an American past time. No other country or culture seems fascinated with it… “Lawns are the most grown crop in the U.S.—and they're not one that anyone can eat; their primary purpose is to make us look and feel good about ourselves. The popularity of George Washington and Mount Vernon’s green grass helped the contagion of the idea of a lawn, as images of Mount Vernon were produced and distributed throughout the United States into the 18th- and 19th-centuries. This gave wealthy Americans something to copy and aspire to.”

I’ve always wondered if it’s a myth to carry a balance because we have high limits and good credit scores and never carry balances. Edit: Looks like it’s a myth per CreditKarma. What is a good credit card balance? It’s a common myth that carrying a balance on your credit card will help you build credit because card issuers earn money on your interest payments. But there’s no connection between your credit scores and how much interest credit card issuers earn from you. Your credit scores are typically determined by other factors, such as your record of on-time payments and credit utilization. The reality is that carrying a balance could actually hurt your credit scores. Is it ok to carry a credit card balance? In general, it’s probably best not to carry a credit card balance. But sometimes you might find it impossible to pay your entire balance on time. In that situation, you’ll want to pay attention to how much you’re spending compared with your credit limit.

It’s a time filler for sure. It makes zero sense to show.

That’s pretty nuts. I’ve never really heard of bear kills around VT. Maybe because they have so many other food sources they don’t feel the need?

Haha that’s hilarious. “Why stand, let’s just sit down and relax and enjoy this meal.” I think I heard a VT Game Warden say the black bears can smell a single sunflower seed dipped in black oil from a mile away.

Watch out. The Bears are getting smarter. Very educated bears around here. They have always been smart... our trash is in a so-called "bear proof" contraption but a mama bear dismantled it last week and spread trash everywhere while my wife watched a cub run around the yard. That's business as usual. But now they have been opening doors. Lately on the Stowe Front Porch Forum have been numerous posts about bears opening doors and letting themselves into places. Here's two consecutive posts about bears opening car doors. Then a friend on instagram has a video of a bear trying to open a shed door. These animals are hilarious . Black bears are like racoons mixed with pigs. Very resourceful, crafty, and will eat anything but aren't hunters, only scavengers. This animal in the video (I only showed a screen shot) is literally trying to turn the knob and open the door. These creatures are smart.

We’ve got a bigger departure than Mt Tolland up here but it hasn’t felt that way for sure. Weymouth only at -0.29” too? I figured SNE was a desert from the posts here. Looks like NNE/CNE is worse .

At what level does Stein kick in? Is it anything below normal or is there like a standard deviation level where you are “Steined?” Sometimes it seems everyone who isn’t seeing well above normal water is seeing Stein .

64F at 1pm at MVL. Not making the 70s today.

0.27”… nice gentle soaking overnight for the garden. Low clouds and mist currently.

High of 72F, continuing the theme of highs in the 70s more often than not since mid-May. Humidity on the rise too, dews up to 48F.

Couple off the cuff thoughts… As cold air presses south in winter, it’s fluid like the ocean tide coming in. The overall tide comes in but there are waves that push forward and then retreat back (just not as far back as the previous wave). Is there some climatological bunching that we are seeing the “tide/wave” retreat a bit in that period after pressing in early/mid Dec? Almost like late Spring has a well documented secondary snowpack maximum in the NNE mtns? The tide/cold starts heading back north by March but by late March/early April there’s another surge south and some renewed cold, just not as cold as before? Trying to conceptualize air mass movements as ocean tide in or out, you see some fluidity back and forth despite an overall movement of cooling or warming. When I first moved up here to VT a couple decades ago, everyone talked about the “January thaw.” That hasn’t been as big of a deal the past decade… it feels like it’s moved to the Holiday thaw or the “Grinch” systems. Has there been any reason for a pivot there in timing? Is it just random bunching on short time scales?

I know the Fairbanks Museum in St Johnsbury, VT has seen the same thing. I have to see if I can find it but like the 10 days around Christmas have a temperature rise that’s not seen before or after that period. IIRC they had like an almost 2F rise lately.

I’ve found the sheer volume of summer tourists and hikers make it virtually impossible to fully get the message across… but it’s true, that’s not to say one shouldn’t try. But folks take winter months in the mountains so much more seriously. We see it on Mansfield all the time. Say several thousand people will hike on a given weekend. The forecast scares the vast majority off, but you could still have 300 people braving elements, thunderstorms, etc. And one of them will get into trouble. Stowe Mountain Rescue (Town’s municipal technical rescue team) is tops in VT along with Colchester Technical Rescue. Both will respond to swift water, high mountain, cliffs, swimming holes, and all backcountry related injuries from as far away as the Adirondacks to NH depending on the nature of the call. The number of 911 calls they get in warm season is exponentially higher than in the winter. More people and people who are less prepared. If you go out in the woods in the winter, generally you know what you are doing or you think about it more. You go outside in the woods in the summer, it’s just called taking a walk, ha.

Nice Rad pit night last night… 43F at 750ft and 53F at 1500ft.

53F. Hoodies.

I likewise think personal responsibility goes a long way. Mount Washington Observatory forecasts were very clear about the dangers. NWS mentioned it too. There are a lot of dumb people out there, or just oblivious is a better way to put it. Same thing when beach-goers drown despite a tropical storm off-shore and crazy rip currents.

The summer time “mild downs” are by far the most dangerous. They seem to claim more hikers and lead to more rescues than autumn or spring because of how out-of-season they are. It was full on winter up there.

Stop using model data.

What a day. 72/39 currently.

Your credibility in telling folks what “they’ll see” needs a bit of rebuilding after the past week. Brand image consultants would suggest citing and showing some model data from time to time to build back trust.