powderfreak
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Everything posted by powderfreak
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What a thump on the HRRR up here. Like 6” in 4 hours. Just ripping. -
The QPF differences are wild.
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Looks like the Herpes.
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Upslope has turned on and it’s dumping this evening. Heavy squalls and wind.
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Yeah that's the 10:1 map vs. the Depth Change maps which seem to be up to 50% reduced.
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Positive depth change was posted. Not your generic clown map.
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It somehow got snowier up here too. One of these is not like the other.
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Yeah this is the “your backyard” part coming into it… because they do look decently different in several aspects, but your modeled snowfall total is the same on both for you.
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They’ve had avalanches crashing down towards residences in the area. Just insane snow. The Sheriff’s office had these photos in Olympic Valley. That’s a 3-story building!
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Yeah in the end, it doesn't matter how a model gets to point A or B, if it's wintry it's the model that showed snow (even if the SFC low was 150 miles off) that gets the win in the opinion. If one model shows snow and one shows rain, everything else about it doesn't matter I guess... it can miss the low track or positioning, etc.
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Right, you don't care what it shows. Your mind was made up two days ago.
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You aren't really showing or giving any examples so its hard to discuss. We'll agree to disagree and see what the end result is. This is yesterday's GFS run.
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Eh, they are both moving towards each other. Can see ticks from both models in the past 24 hours. Basically what should happen. One could make an argument either way. Say up north, the GFS has been increasing QPF to the north, while down south the Euro has become a bit colder. Depends on the variable you want to look at too. Low tracks they seem to be merging in the middle.
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One bite. Everyone knows the rules.
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Given all the Ensemble guidance... the GGEM/CMC ensemble is the middle road approach.
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6z 3km NAM looks like most of the systems of late. Gets into Ray to Hubby zone, while crushing Dendrite to Dryslot. It's still ripping up to 1"/hr in NH/ME at the end of the run here so there's more to come in those areas.
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I was just thinking how mild it was last night... MVL up here was 32-34F most of the night (actually it got up to 36F from 1-2am). Sure there will be CAA behind this current system but it's an interesting observation that for those that snow it might just marginally get there. Then again, that's all it has to do, get to 32F or lower.
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The ICON moved fairly substantially up into the NAM/EURO camp.
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Looks like we are seeing a meet in the middle. GFS bumped north with QPF, Euro bumped south with thermals. Both now take the low near Long Island, GFS fairly significant move north with low pressure position. GEFS been going steadily north tick by tick last 24 hours with QPF. Today’s 00z: Yesterday’s 00z:
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That is absolutely bonkers. I’d start to be worried about getting buried if one of those snow walls calved off. Walk one at a time to make sure if someone gets buried another person is able to get them out, ha. Children can’t go outside either, going to drown.
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3KM has a helluva thump. The 3-hr maps have rates up to 2”/hr… but here’s a 6-hr snap to catch multiple areas. Heavy snow to scalping.
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It’s definitely ever so slightly colder in your neck of the woods from 18z. It’s not much of a change overall, but even 15-20 miles may mean a lot for some in Mass.
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That’s what I think of your climo, ha. It’s either 0” or 12”+ events. Which is why I’d never count you guys out for not having an ok winter. Percentage wise of snowfall, you guys can make up serious ground with one system.
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BTV climate piece sums up winter: && .CLIMATE... The meteorological winter (December to February) has come to a close. Preliminary average temperature data indicates it was the 3rd warmest winter on record in Burlington with a value of 29.0 degrees, behind the 2016-2017 and 2015-2016 seasons. Snowfall was 46.9"; among the last 20 seasons, this is the 4th lowest total, inching ahead of 2005-2006, and well ahead of 2015-2016 and 2011-2012. &&
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BTV climate piece sums up winter: && .CLIMATE... The meteorological winter (December to February) has come to a close. Preliminary average temperature data indicates it was the 3rd warmest winter on record in Burlington with a value of 29.0 degrees, behind the 2016-2017 and 2015-2016 seasons. Snowfall was 46.9"; among the last 20 seasons, this is the 4th lowest total, inching ahead of 2005-2006, and well ahead of 2015-2016 and 2011-2012. &&
