powderfreak

Just a steady almost synoptic rain here. About a half inch so far. No sun up this way.

BOX adding some color to the observation; some personality in the AFDs isn’t the worst thing out there…

It’ll be refreshing. The HHH will be back. It’s summer in New England. The ebb and flow.

Paste bomb potential goes up in marginal environments.

Isnt that how average/climo is anyway? Or you mean with greater frequency than the background ratter-prone climo?

Ha, the saying around the NNE mountains is “I love summer, last year it was on a Tuesday.”

This will feel different and noticeable. Highs in lower 70s Sat-Tue. Saturday Mostly cloudy with a chance of showers. Highs in the lower 70s. Chance of rain 50 percent. Saturday Night And Sunday Partly cloudy. Lows in the lower 50s. Highs in the lower 70s. Sunday Night And Monday Mostly clear. Lows in the lower 50s. Highs in the lower 70s. Monday Night And Tuesday Partly cloudy. Lows in the lower 50s. Highs in the lower 70s.

The next time people actually get Stein conditions, they’ll remember the great TAN drought. 7+ inches in 3 weeks being Stein moves the definition a bit.

Ha, it’s true. Just soggy. Weve been lucky to miss anything more than a few hundredths over the past couple days.

Biggest temperature acclimation memory I have was Feb 2015. Felt like it had been between 10F and -35F for like weeks. I distinctly remember a day with a high of like 21F that felt like it was full-on spring. Everyone skiing and showing their faces, actual exposed skin, ha. Everyone was so happy and warm. And yet it was still only like low-20s.

Oh for sure I agree it seems more humid these days. We had A/C always just was loud and not efficient. So weighing that against comfort… it had to be real bad to put up with the loud unit… now it’s quite and efficient so the equation changes. I’m just commenting on the fact that every summer we have this period where it’s humid then dews drop to 60-62F, someone says it’s COC, you say my the goalposts have changed, etc. I’ll bet you a 4-pack we do the discussion again next summer that it gets humid or hot, then it drops back and someone says it’s nice out. You’ll say dews are still 60F and we can relive it again .

I’m getting intense déjà vu as we have the same conversation every. single. summer. Its humid as balls for a while and then dews drop from 73F to 60-62F and it feels much nicer out. Someone mentions it feels good and then a certain poster finds it funny that a dew of 61F is now comfortable. Every year. Without fail.

Didn’t you install Air Conditioning when the temp hit 60F in April and started wearing shorts and tees. Now the talk is cold and about wearing hoodies and shawls if the temp goes below 70F in the evening. Of course the body acclimates. Aside from busting balls, a sunny March day at 50F feels like summer… 50F in Sept/Oct feels frigid.

Even up here, now most have mini-splits or central air put in. It does feel more humid than it did a decade ago but it could be more on the mind lately. Part of it is that our society is less and less ok with being uncomfortable. We are less accepting of being uncomfortable and technology has allowed it easier to get efficient, quiet A/C that wasn’t as readily available 10-20 years ago.

Agreed, it needs to be back where it was in the upper Midwest stretching into the Lakes at times so we stay on the far eastern edge where heights are rising. As modeled that trough is deflecting everything.

Going to a summer wedding atop Jay Peak next weekend… this would be interesting if 850mb temps were low single digits. That’s a crisp air mass for end of July. Luckily the EURO is like +10 above this.

See I'll disagree. I saved a bunch of media from the time of big rains and flooding. The trough this month was much further west. Compare these to the image you posted. That trough is much further east, directly over us. That would not allow humid warm air to stream into our zone and there's no battle ground over us. This month's pattern that brought humid rains had heights rising over us and the below normal heights well west. That allowed that humid moist air to fire directly northward into our region... and we were in the battle zone between trough and ridge. EPS Mid-July GEFS Mid-July.

I’m seeing both ensembles looking like the trough is much further east than it was. Im not saying I think it’s right (haven’t paid enough attention), I’m just saying if you are using those as “supporting docs” then it’s not what is shown exactly. For example, this is a 7-day mean of the EPS, with trough centered over us not Great Lakes. Can see the 2-M temps also reflect that, not in GL. This is first week of August and that’s as far as they run. Meanwhile the GEFS are further east, over us and into Maritimes. That’s much different mean than over the GL. 2-M temps also reflect it July 31-Aug 7 to end of run.

Can you show us some upper level progs to illustrate this August pattern? I’m curious what I should be looking for.

Don’t look at data and charts. Forecast from the heart. Then there’s less confusion.

Nope they don’t look at it much different operationally in my mind. If you are in the event business, you are approaching it the same way each time. Doesn’t matter the artist, they’ll follow the SOP and ticketing language.

It’s not raining right now, that’s all that matters lol.

Definitely a cooler day. Been bouncing around 69-72F this afternoon with clouds and upslope showers/sprinkles.

Dad’s drunk at the brewery under the awning while little Johnny does laps on his bike through the muddy pump track. Wife and girls are spending two grand on retail they don’t need.

We are too .