powderfreak

All joking aside, I do get some of Kev’s point about dews staying up even if it’s not warm. It is no where near the July heat and humidity combo (with the QPF/water)… but it seems to have a surge of Td ahead of each FROPA. Went out for pizza tonight and coming home It’s chilly out and wet, but a humid chilly? If that’s even a thing. 61-62F temps past hour but the dews are right there with it. Looks pretty humid from HFD to BOS. I like charts and data, and it is upper 60s to near 70F dews at the ASOS in SE New England.

Torrential rain. 61.5/61.3.

Reality is somewhere in the middle of the hyperbole. Always dangerous to try to speak in absolutes with weather. What hasn’t happened is a long wave pattern mimicking July in stability for a period of weeks on end.

There’s a COC joke in here somewhere…

It’s true, weather is more of a vibe than a science. It can be something different to each of us. You just do you.

lol even you can’t actually believe what you write on here.

It’s scatter shot at this point between adjacent NY and New England for heavy rain threats. The amount of 14-24” water totals since June 1st stretches from Canada to the South Coast of CT. When it wants to precipitate, there is plenty of upper level assistance. It rains hard. In short duration time spans. Everything aloft has been slightly further east than July, the flooder was more towards the coast in this past event.

We’ll see ridging from Edmonton to Nova Scotia in Winter.

GFS OP still dropping troughs in through the 20th. Persistent.

Yeah there’s a full scale flip in there. That ending looks unlike anything yet this summer, no trough anywhere from Upper Midwest to NE… all ridging.

Happy Birthday dude.

Feels like fall/winter dynamics. Irrelevant but the Gondola up here is on wind hold for WNW winds of up to 65mph at 4,000ft. Looks like MWN gusting to 80mph. Very rare to get that wind speed in the summer months up here to impact operations, that’s a winter thing. Shows sort of where the atmosphere is right now.

Some wind damage out of the old-school Snow Ridge on the Tug.

Reminiscing about model analysis and meteorological discussion on the forum . Added just under 0.40” today… for a two-day total 2.08”.

Phil and Stein got a house together. Edit: Dammit TanBlizz beat me to the Stein comment immediately.

lol every time we disagree. Sorry, winter’s a busy time of year. Gave you some good Waterbury recommendations. To be fair to both sides, there will be days when both are correct. Ahead of any front, it’ll get dewy and rain. And the upper level jet structure and dynamics continue to be strong so it’ll rain a lot at times. But compared to July, the FROPAs will actually move through occasionally. July they never did, it was like a month-long stalled boundary to our west. I don’t think it’s completely correct or am I calling for it, but the NAM shows what I’m trying to articulate: Today, dewy rains. Tomorrow, NW flow and drier. Then another system moves in with dewy rains.. But the FROPA moves through behind it and drier WNW flow again. July’s pattern did not feature those FROPAs and flow never really went deep layer NW behind rainers. July was just a constant feed of moisture and dews with fronts washing out. The long wave trough was further west.

Bingo. Major difference is that in July, the trough was stable and never actually made it to us. So it was every single day of dews and rain. Just a perpetual SW flow aloft and SSE flow low levels. This month the upper level trough is actually progressing so it gives us the breaks and the flow actually does go NW at times. Of course, basic meteorology is ahead of a trough there will be moisture and warmth pumped up ahead of it… so whenever these features move in we will get days that are like July (rain and moisture). We get those days every month of the year to some extent, even December too. The classic push of warmer moist air ahead of a trough/system. But then it actually gets here and the flow dries, whereas in July it was stalled for like a month straight. The trough never progressed over us. Sure, ahead of every trough until Christmas the temporary pattern is like July… gets humid and rains. But unlike July, we’ll get some of the drier NW flow days behind it. The whole thing is moved eastward from July.

How is this in any way mirroring July so far? July was like a record warm month all-time (top 5 most spots). Almost every site will be below normal through the first 10 days (33%) of this month. Weed and beer combo on that.

Nice to have the trough to spin these Synoptics up. Feel like we’ve had better jet structures and upper dynamics than some cold seasons so far this summer.

Looks like a desert.

Man I got Steined with only 1.70”. Might need to water tonight.

It’s very persistent. EPS here for 8/15. A couple things stand out… that secondary axis of lower heights still nodding into New England as the parent trough reloads into the upper Lakes. That node of lower heights rippling through could spoil heat and humidity… but if it ends up not there at all, that picture gets a lot warmer/humid during that time. Still a way for this to get more humid and hot earlier, but persistence wants to lean towards anyway possible to lower heights in the region.

Yeah sometimes I know I come off snarky to DIT, it’s just sometimes the last decade of forum disco has gone like a microcosm of society, lol. Apologies. We used to love discussing actual model data and yes, it’s “a bit” on here and I know it’s joking most of the time, but mocking data and toeing the line blindly feels like it gets me as a larger societal issue. I don’t mean for the snark to come through but we have data available to us to look at and discuss… once we just go blindly into the night, to go down with a ship we set sail on a whim, what are we doing? Theres zero doubt it will get humid and hot again. Zero doubt. But progs at end of July have definitely stepped back about 10 days now. That’s not an insignificant amount of time. Sort of like expecting a nice run in winter and realize that 10-14 days of climo vanished pretty fast.

You’re reading comprehension is interesting. It would be wild to spend a day in your brain lol. By the 18th that map shows a July-like pattern. So that’s established prior to the 3 week mark. Not COC through first three weeks. We can just live in facts and data, don’t know why that’s so scary. Say first two weeks and transition, established by 18th on that prog?

Something about living in the present vs the future… keep trying to erase it like the past 10 days didn’t happen . At first it was a couple days. Then it was first week. Then it was August 12th. Now it’s August 18th before the GEFS show a similar 500mb to July. Again though it’s just data, we don’t all have the KFS data on model sites.