nj2va

Atmosphere seems to go by memory so maybe a foreshadowing of D/J/F. Or maybe we're using all our good luck up with this storm. My bar is seeing some type of frozen fall from the sky in MBY given its not even the second half of November yet. I wish I was at Deep Creek for this one.

Tom Wilson returns tonight! @ravensrule

Watches posted for the I-81 corridor @WinterWxLuvr

Classic CAD signal on the GFS with the bent isobars.

I'm excited to see some kind of winter weather fall from the sky even if its for a brief 10 minutes before we flip to rain. It's been a parade of coastals that doesn't seem to want to end... ...that is until D/J/F comes around.

All we need is an Ellinwood map with a grey 0-0.5" over 95 with the dreaded pink "Mixing to Rain" over the cities.

I feel good that we see this setup again at least once in DJF.

Faster onset of precip than 18z.

Didn’t dig too much into details (navigating his website is torture even when the panels work) but snowfall map is another improvement. 2” line was running through DC at 12z. IAD 4” at 12z...5” at 18z. (Not endorsing those totals, just showing the “improvement”)

18z Euro has precip onset just after 12z Thursday. A few hours of mix for the cities before changeover to rain. Surface temps start at 34 but cool to 32 during the morning hours before starting to warm up. Favored areas stay below freezing through 00z Friday. Temps start crashing by 9z Friday and a potential flip back over to frozen as it ends (ha, we do so well with that around here). 10:1 snowfall maps have the 2” line just SE of DC and 3” running through the city. While I do think we see a period of frozen precip, I don’t think we accumulate at all. I think the favored areas could see a few inches of sleet/snow. Just my guess at the moment.

Doug K is going all in! Headline: Double the Average in the DMV. Yes please.

At least we only have to wait 25 minutes for the 18z Euro to initialize. #gimmethegoodstuff to help calm the model shakes for another few hours...

Not as bad as vice regent.

The CPC map is centered on Thanksgiving though...wouldn’t we want to show the analog for D+3?

Exciting to be tracking something this early.

Yeah, exactly. We could see some frozen precip before the transition to rain but I’m extremely pessimistic at the snowfall maps outside of Garrett/WV ridges and favored zones up north.

GFS verbatim may be a very brief period of some mix precip for the cities but quickly transitioning over to rain. Would be a prolonged frozen event for the 81 corridor. Even with an all rain scenario for MBY, its good to see this setup as he head into more favorable snow climo for the corridor. Love to see a parade of coastals.

If you can figure out the navigation, let me know. It’s a maze.

Saw A Star is Born today...really good movie. Lady Gaga and Bradley Cooper deserve Oscars for that. I’m sure Hollywood will give it to some French movie no one ever heard of nor wants to see.

Thanks for running this! My best showing yet of any MA contests. Maybe a good sign for my overly ambitious snowfall guess.

33. So close to my first freeze.

Impressive, this region is on quite the hot streak.

Also more N&E so better chance at scoring a little more from a Miller B.

Snowing in McHenry per my Ring cam and Wisp looks like they are making snow per the Wisp cameras. In Arlington, its raining leaves right now.

Malkin is a loser. No team is better than the Pens/Sullivan at whining about calls/non-calls both during and after the game. Not surprised at the no suspension at all given Sullivan's uncanny ability to get what he wants from the NHL.