nj2va
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Everything posted by nj2va
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42/25 at home. 30 at the house in McHenry, under a WSW.
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What a terrible way to lose your mom, I'm sorry for your loss. My aunt just passed away from brain cancer after a miraculous (?) survival of six years since initial diagnosis. Watching her deteriorate at the end was tough to see. Hopefully tomorrow's storm is a precursor for an active winter to keep your mind preoccupied with other things.
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Maybe it’s just me but it’s seemed the overall mood here has been realistic with expectations in the metros. I don’t think anyone was buying 5” of snow in DC on Nov 15. A couple hours of frozen before rain sounds good to me.
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It’s probably a bit too fast but I think we’re raining by noon in DC if I had to guess.
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00z RGEM 2-3 hours of sleet for DC before rain...I’ll take. Switches most of the sub forum to rain Thursday afternoon...favored areas hang on the longest obviously.
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3k flips DC to rain ~15-16z Thursday.
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Holy bowling ball, Clark.
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DPs look to be near 20 in the colder spots to upper 20s in the cities at precip onset. Should help with cooling temps initially.
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Though how the hell can he score AND get called/penalty for goalie interference on the same play? Either its a goal or not. Bad referees + reputation penalty.
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So happy he’s back.
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I’m upset no one has posted the SREF...
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It’s Nov 13 today...can’t really complain about it.
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We’ll enjoy our 10 minutes of sleet followed by an 1” of 34 degree rain.
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Overall, I’d say a step back but the positives are quicker precip and cooler 850s at onset. Precip starts in DC by 12z (0.1” already fallen by 12z in DC in the 18z run vs the 0.1” line SW of Manass at 12z run).. 850s slightly colder at the start. Surface starts a touch colder in places but its a warmer run at the surface overall than 12z. Looking at the verbatim 10:1 snowfall maps, definitely cut back...2.5” runs through DC vs 4.5” at 12z.
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Yes. Looking at it now. Precip comes in quickly and cools the column nicely...850s in DC go from +1 to -3 from 9z to 12z. But surface is 34 in the city and warms to 36 in the afternoon. You stay at/below freezing at the surface until overnight into Friday.
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Mid-Atlantic winter 2018-19 snowfall contest
nj2va replied to PrinceFrederickWx's topic in Mid Atlantic
Higher guesses rolling in now. Thursday's storms are getting peoples hopes up. -
Atmosphere seems to go by memory so maybe a foreshadowing of D/J/F. Or maybe we're using all our good luck up with this storm. My bar is seeing some type of frozen fall from the sky in MBY given its not even the second half of November yet. I wish I was at Deep Creek for this one.
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Tom Wilson returns tonight! @ravensrule
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Watches posted for the I-81 corridor @WinterWxLuvr
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Classic CAD signal on the GFS with the bent isobars.
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I'm excited to see some kind of winter weather fall from the sky even if its for a brief 10 minutes before we flip to rain. It's been a parade of coastals that doesn't seem to want to end... ...that is until D/J/F comes around.
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All we need is an Ellinwood map with a grey 0-0.5" over 95 with the dreaded pink "Mixing to Rain" over the cities.
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I feel good that we see this setup again at least once in DJF.
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Faster onset of precip than 18z.
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Didn’t dig too much into details (navigating his website is torture even when the panels work) but snowfall map is another improvement. 2” line was running through DC at 12z. IAD 4” at 12z...5” at 18z. (Not endorsing those totals, just showing the “improvement”)
