nj2va
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Everything posted by nj2va
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GFS is on an island of its own out here. Barely 0.3” with the others all showing 1-2”+. Maybe an early preview of model wars for our blockbuster winter.
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Another shot from the scenic overlook on 219 near the High School.
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Best foliage in years...dry weather has helped bring out the colors. Lots of people here for Autumn Glory. Here’s a random farmhouse near Oakland.
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12z NAM shifted totals SE. I went from 3.5” (yeah right) at 6z to 1.25” at 12z here in Deep Creek. Basically all of the area outside of the mountains are 2”+ on the 12z NAM though. Still welcomed rain here.
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Just got to Deep Creek. Peak foliage here this weekend in time for the annual Autumn Glory festival....will take a few pics when I’m out and about. Great weekend for WxUSAF to also be in the area (not great weather unfortunately).
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A bit of a head scratcher but I know why we need the defensive backup with Kempny’s injuries. Maybe he’ll regain his point production from a few years now that’s with a good team.
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Should we start the Winter 21-22 thread now? I heard the Super Doppler Euro Yearly model shows wall to wall October for DJF.
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Agreed.
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Rest of the month looks warm. Not sure we’re done yet.
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I think I finished with 1” last year in Arlington. I agree - I don’t see us doing worse than that here.
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I’d guess Garrett is 7-14 days from peak which makes sense given Canaan at/near peak now. Dry fall has helped to bring out some good colors.
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You’re able to tell the future.
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If I stare at it long enough, I can convince myself the purple line just makes it to Garrett County.
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If that look persists into mid-October, it could easily lead to early flakes for the mountains. The later the month goes with that look, it opens the door for the far NW exurbs too (your area, etc).
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BWI: 10/26 IAD: 10/27 DCA: 11/9 RIC: 11/9 TB: 86
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I’m not even sure I could round up to an inch last winter.
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Not saying we'll have a blockbuster winter but I put no faith in these seasonal forecasts.
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Yeah, I think so. Clippers are fun sneaky events.
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It seems like we’re due for a fluke event this winter (this is 100% unscientific but probably more accurate than those lame seasonal models/weeklies).
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Oh, that #$#%ing storm.
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I thought this area did quite well in the January '96 blizzard? Or do I have the wrong storm?
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Winter automatically would get a B at least.
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The real way it’ll go down is we’ll get a -NAO in early November to give us the hope of a front loaded winter. Dec 1 flips to a +NAO and holds until March.
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I’ll go 5-15” at home and 60-80” in McHenry. Both below average.
