nj2va

I hope you are able to find some peace right now during this tremendous loss. I can’t imagine the pain and loss but I will keep your family in my prayers, especially this holiday season.

Windows open...beautiful spring day!

I also liked seeing GFS bump up QPF totals for the mountains and starting to clue in some upslope as the coastal pulls away.

The CCM/deform band depicted on the GFS is serious bidness at hr 90 - runs straight the majority of the forum. Even with cities mixing/flipping to rain, with that deform band depicted, it should make everyone happy.

You’ll do really well tomorrow. Easily warning-criteria. I wish I was heading out to Deep Creek today vs Tuesday night...save some snow for Wednesday!

Unpopular opinion but I loved the NAM. Its a mauling for 81 west to the mountains. As we get in closer to the event, its becoming every man/woman for themselves with rooting for the best solution for their backyard.

I realize this thread is basically focused on this week’s medium range threat but the long range continues to look good. Of course never a guarantee to actually get frozen, but the blocking continues to look stable. Uber long range wanted to mute it a bit but it just keeps reshuffling. I like that the PV doesn’t look to be a tight concentrate circle...amazing what higher heights in the NAO/AO domains will do.

Ji won’t be happy with Ellinwood’s map. “Leesburg is basically the new 95”

Great analysis as always. Just hoping for at least 5” in Deep Creek from this and I’d be happy. Hoping we all cash in. Good luck with studying!

“Meh” “fringed” “not great even up here” “by tomorrow, it’ll be congrats Albany”

Mixing gets as far west as Winchester

Poor Ji...not even a pity <1” by LWX for Leesburg now...

Yep, was going to post the same. If it went past 84, I’d think we’d like what it showed. And nice to see precip already breaking out by hour 84 across the mountains and SW VA.

PSU posted something similar for the last coastal (which was all rain)...GFS sniffed that out from 10+ days out but just had the thermals a bit off. USA USA

Sounds about right for the mid Atlantic wheel of emotions...worries bubbling up about a SE trend hours after the worry was a north trend that turned everyone mixing.

I won’t get into the intense banding that the 81 corridor/ish crowd will get but can make up for some of that with better ratios. Phin also pointed out the orographic enhancement that the globals won’t pick up on yet - and the upslope snow showers that will continue after the coastal moves away. But i think the bullseye will be somewhere in the 81 corridor-ish. This will be my first coastal since buying the place in late 2016 so will be interesting to learn climo out there for these events. Lucky for you, there will be more snow in Oakland this winter

Playing with fire but staying on the colder side this time. Go big or go home.

Crushing 95/West at 96

I’ll need to stop by there sometime and say hi — there are fantastic lake, Wisp, and 4th of July firework views from there.

Meanwhile, here will be CAPE

Doubtful, have you been around long?

I’m east of the fall line Oh wait, I’ll be in McHenry for this at 2,800 feet....bring on the 18z GFS you eastern folks!!!!

It feels like we’ve been treading water all day at a 96-105H start time.

Can someone remind me...what’s the general ‘cut-off’ for relying on the OP vs referring to the ensembles for trends/outlier vs OP/etc? Tomorrow...or 72 hours...?

Yes, as a few others pointed out it seems we traded some intensity on the EPS mean for slightly colder solution. Something that helps those on the margins.