nj2va

Got a small downpour cell rolling through here.

Sometimes hard to tell the difference

There’s a snow futility, will it ever snow, a CC forum, and panic room - I think there’s plenty of places to complain/post about the elephant.

Maybe we should try a thing where we create a new LR thread every night until we get a storm. What could go wrong?

Born / raised in Middlesex county and my parents now live in Whiting in Ocean County. Small world!

If GFS is right, I’d suggest chase to the mountains this holiday weekend. This includes 2-3” of upslope overnight/tomorrow but GFS is really honking the upslope potential which would be a boon for Wisp/Canaan.

Damn, the wind is roaring.

Be honest, was that your proudest moment as a dad yet?

A 9,000 ft mountain in Northern MD apparently.

Hoping to get some more colors on here

Remind me not to be there when you’re there.

They'll hold onto the snow longer there too vs the higher elevations just west...they should really boom this morning.

It’s dumping snow at Wisp right now: https://www.wispresort.com/mountain-report-cams/

Culpeper and Spotsy. are closed lol

List is growing: https://wtop.com/closings-and-delays/

Don’t worry, there’s plenty of things to make fun of you about, this included.

I don’t know if I’ve ever seen that many wind advisories on one map.

Great summary and write-up!

As I took down the Christmas lights today, I noticed some of my daffodils are poking up.

Really good summary by LWX A powerful storm system will impact the entire region Tuesday into Tuesday night. A highly amplified mid/upper trough over the Central Plains pushes eastward toward the MS Valley. A tremendous amount of upper diffluence will cause a surface low to develop and rapidly deepen as it tracks from the lee of the Rockies, across the Central Plains and central Great Lakes. A secondary wave of low pressure develops near the northern Gulf Coast, and is scooped up by the larger low to the north. As the entire complex pushes east, very strong WAA advection and an associated strong cold front are likely to bring significant impacts to our area. Temperatures ahead of this system shoot up to the 50s to low 60s east of I-81, although temperatures will likely follow a nondiurnal curve. Wintry Mix: A residual cold air mass ahead of this system will likely result in a wintry mix of snow and freezing rain for areas west of US-15 Tuesday morning. Some snow accumulation and ice accretion are possible, especially in the higher elevations along and west of the Blue Ridge. However, it`s possible some of the valleys stay cold enough for some accumulation as well. The strong synoptic forcing is going to help produce a quick burst of wintry precip, then strong WAA quickly transitions all p- type to rain by, although it may take until the afternoon in the typical cold pocket near the Allegheny Front around Cumberland. It`s possible these areas see higher end advisory amounts of ice and/or snow as a sizeable amount of QPF may fall before temperatures rise above freezing. Heavy Rain: A period of moderate to heavy rain is likely to overspread the area Tuesday afternoon and evening, with the heaviest rain along and east of the Blue Ridge. However, there will be added response from any remaining snowpack in western areas. Widespread rain amounts of 1.5-2.5 inches are currently forecast, though given the strong moisture flux, deep moist airmass, and strong diffluence, those totals could certainly end up higher. A heavier band of elevated convection Tuesday evening will likely result in the highest rain rates. This heavy rainfall could lead to urban, small stream, and river flooding. Strong Winds: There are several periods/areas of concern for strong winds. The first is earlier Tuesday into the daytime hours with strong southeast flow overtop of the residual cold pool. This looks to mainly be a downsloping issue west of the Eastern Continental Divide. However, some areas from western Garrett southward down the divide may need Wind Advisories for this period. Then toward evening, an exceptional low level jet (60+ knots or 5 sigma at 925 mb) will expand north along the coast. This is incredibly tricky as steady rainfall and warm air over the cool marine waters will likely result in a notable near-surface stable layer. Most model wind gust output is likely well overdone, although MOS guidance sustained winds of 15-25 kt could not be taking into account the anomalous nature of the event. With that said, winds could very well approach Wind Advisory levels for a time Tuesday evening before quickly subsiding overnight. The Blue Ridge could also be near advisory levels. This could lead to some sporadic wind damage, particularly with trees in increasingly saturated soils. The third period of stronger winds will come Wednesday (see long term section below).

Agreed, good signal as of now and nice timing with MLK weekend. The ski resorts will need it after Tuesdays cutter.

Beautiful.

Quite the finale with this heavy rain.

Steady, moderate rain. Another drought buster.

Heyyyoooo some sleet here in Alexandria.