nj2va
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Everything posted by nj2va
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Yep, allows the SS vort to amplify enough for us. It’s not a surprise looking at the 500 trend on the Euro that its slowly been correcting n/nw with the surface/precip.
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It’s hard to tell if his main issue is just the raw snowfall output or the actual evolution at 500/surface that the GFS is showing. He makes it seem (in the last image), that his main issue is verbatim trusting the 10:1 snowfall maps in this setup vs precip getting into the cities. ETA: Anyone trusting the 10:1 maps in this is fraught for disappointment IMO.
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I don’t know how to post the animation here but looping the last 6 runs of the Euro at 500 shows a definite adjustment on the Euro in slowing down the SS vort and actually closes it off at 500.
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Another bump like that at 0z and DC is in the 4-5” range.
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Also notice the 500 low is closed at hour 33 and 36 vs 12z. Always like to see that. Hopefully translates to a better surface depiction.
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I don’t hate this look on the GEFS for the threat on the 7th.
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50 degrees and absolutely pouring. Over 1.2” on the day.
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Lol, evil. When is that from again?
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Verbatim on the snow maps, 0.1” line gets to DC. Good enough to see some flakes flying. Another bump north certainly possible. Let’s see what it shows for the end of week threat too.
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We nailed it Mattie.
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Torrential rain. I can understand why Wisp closed until colder weather returns.
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Happy New Year y’all! 53 and moderate rain.
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I’ll take my chances with that vs the absolute garbage PAC we have now even with a favorable Atlantic.
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Wisp closing effective tomorrow until conditions become more favorable for snow making and/or natural snow events. I’m actually shocked they were able to stay open this long.
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Swallow Falls was raging today with all the recent rain here. 56 and mostly cloudy. Good hiking weather and more like April vs December for here.
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I don’t really want to turn this thread into a debate on weeklies/extended ensembles but for me, the LR has been flopping around so what’s the point in putting faith in a 4 week map right now? Sure, another data point to ingest but I put no confidence in them. Again just my opinion.
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I’m sorry to read this…my deepest condolences to you and your family. I’ll keep you in my prayers. Losing a family member is tough but especially this time of year, it’s even harder.
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Weeklies and extended ensembles are useless IMO.
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Northern Neck. The new snow capital of the forum.
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ICON wants no part of what the GFS is selling and leaves no energy back. ICON would be better for the mountains with a period of upslope snow Sunday afternoon into the overnight hours.
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UKMET at 96H. GFS-ish.
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Looks more than a baby step Maybe more of a toddler step on second look
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CMC took a baby step to the GFS at 500 and surface but basically still night/day. CMC does get a period of snow into SEVA this run though.
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From the map I saw in the PA forum, it looked like it took a step towards the GFS at 18z but GFS (or any model) on an island is a red flag. Still fun to track something vs debating phantom ridges at hour 873.
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Closed 500 low tracking along the NC/VA border. I’d take that look any day and roll the dice.
