nj2va
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Everything posted by nj2va
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Just got here. 25 and SN-…it was graupel in Cumberland when we stopped at Chik Fil A and Sheetz and basically SN- from the county line to here.
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We’re in the car heading out to McHenry. The language from the updated WSW is full on pants tent mojo: ...WINTER STORM WATCH NOW IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY MORNING... * WHAT...Heavy snow possible. Total snow accumulations of 6 to 12 inches are most likely, with up to 18 inches possible. Winds could gust as high as 45 mph, creating blizzard conditions at times.
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Start the thread!!!!
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You can't go wrong with any along the spine of the Apps from WV up to Garrett County, from Snowshoe up to Timberline/Canaan and north to Wisp. Upslope totals will be higher in Snowshoe and Canaan due to their higher elevation. Totals during the WAA portion may be lower in Snowshoe due to mixing in these setups (see above) but honestly, all of these areas will do well. I don't know much about VA/PA ski resorts.
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Yeah, agree with that on the mixing in this setup...hopefully the dry slot stays to the west over central WV or NW of there. But upslope looks to be good so I think you'll make up for it there IMO.
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NAM keeps that dry slot over WV (and out of western MD). I wouldn't be surprised if I mix in McHenry for a short period of time with the 850 winds blasting from the east before the winds shift back out of the NW at 850.
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Yeah, this isn't a virga setup at all. The WAA and those winds screaming from the SE at the 850 level will come in like a wall to get rid of any dry air in the column.
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Check out that +PNA continuing to get reinforced on that map. May be able to time more of a pseudo -NAO with those higher heights rolling through GL too.
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LWX disco mentions the wind 'threat' too with gusts approaching 50 mph as a possibility. I'd bet that map is a bit overdone but it should be pretty gusty Sunday night.
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Maybe a bit more after this with upslope continuing.
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He should just put a 6-11” zone in between. Would make more sense.
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GGEM has single digits N&W of 95 Sunday morning, low teens for the cities. Even if overdone, that’s some impressive cold (yes, realize this setup will scour out the mid levels quickly yadda yadda).
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I’m not following the purple through SEVA on that. It’ll start Monday 1a there but Sunday 1p in NOVA.
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I’ve lived in the area since 2008 and I’m having a hard time remembering a track like this. Not saying that it can’t happen verbatim but to your point, its unusual. It’s kind of remarkable how consistent the major global OPs have been for the last two or so days. Lots of moving parts with this so it could change but we’re now within 72 hours of first flakes so time’s ticking.
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That’s a really fun couple of hours on the GFS on the front end dump for DC. White missles.
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Isn’t that a personal question…..?
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In true mid-atl forum fashion, its every weenie for themselves and I’m now only paying attention to the western area/mountains. but in all seriousness, would like to see the thump/sleet/ice/dry slot scenario for dc and no rain for the 95 corridor.
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Nasty dry slot in WV on that run. It’s the NAM so not worth giving it a bit of attention until tomorrow night/Saturday.
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Wow, did y’all hear pazzo is calling for a march 93 redux? Bold, I like it!
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What if I change my profile pic to the CC radar just as the mix line is on Burke’s doorstep? Does that count?
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K.O.D.
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I’m pretty excited for this event. Mountains look to get whacked.
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Don’t worry about the ways you’ll fail or whether next month has any chances or stuff like that. Just let the weather do its thing. Late December people in this thread were already cancelling winter and look what happened. No one can confidently say what next week, two weeks, or next month will bring.
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GFS has McHenry gusting into the low 50s Sunday night. Check out this panel for the 95 corridor. I’d think overdone but we do wind well around here.
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I'm exhausted dude. The storm last Monday was perfect - basically like 2 days of actual tracking beyond taking a peak here and there in the few days before that. And these types of storms that are forum dividers suck to track.
