Here are the Kuchera and 10:1 maps. 3k Nam is very bullish on backside moisture swinging down through northern Al and then GA and then up through western NC. Basically around the base of the ULL. In my opinion I think elevations over 4k are good for 2+ inches while everyone else will struggle with surface temps for accumulations. We are getting closer to the wheel house range of the 3k NAM (inside 24hrs) so it can't be ignored despite the rest of the other models looking BLEH.
Yes indeed. GFS, FV3 and Euro all trended further south and show some lee low development with prolonged snow Friday night through most of Saturday. If this trend holds I'll be making a drive up from GA for one more snow.
Solid inch on the ground here at 4650 on Beech. Still steady snow with a temp of 30.8. Nice event for what was expected. Wish I was there as I'm living this through my webcams. LOL
Flakes are flying again here on Beech. Super light but flakes non-the-less. Temp is down to 13 already. Snow flurries and snow showers should max out towards sunrise then end quickly in the AM.
Thursday night early Friday is looking...MEH.
I would expect more flurry and snow shower action tonight. 850s crash tonight and 850mb RH goes to 95%+. Probably similar timing as last time with near midnight start but ending quicker Wednesday morning. More of a novelty than anything else. Maybe someone will get lucky and get another 1/2 inch. Single digits will be common above 3500 feet.
High elevation peeps....I would expect snow showers and flurries to commence towards midnight tonight lasting into the first half of Monday. Then again Tuesday night towards midnight lasting into mid morning Wednesday. Nothing major but isolated dusting to 1/2 inch stuff with perhaps more in the highest elevations along the northern TN/NC line.
Nice you did way better than me at 4650 on Beech. LOL. Got about an inch of snow and then just freezing rain all night. Heaviest returns stayed south and east of me.
Got somewhere between an half to 1 inch here at 4650 on Beech. Still snowing steady. Snow QPF is .10 inches so far but temp is only 33 so melting is limiting accumulation.
Mixed with a lot of sleet here in foscoe now. Still a solid coating on the cars/grass already. Currently 33.
Still snow here with a solid covering...maybe quarter to half inch. Won't be long till it's all rain. And my spot here does terrible in weaker CAD so likely just a cold rain once the snow ends.
Covering the cars here in banner elk pretty quick. I assume it's going up there now?
Yep...steady and increasing. Lots of dry air to overcome...which bodes well for longer duration before freezing rain...hopefully.
Absolutely nothing yet on Beech at 4650. Had some sleet this morning in Dahlonega GA and then some snow mixed in with the heavier rain splattering on the windshield.
GFS model had been showing this small batch of moisture at 850mb crossing the area this morning lasting into early afternoon. No model showed any measurable precip but when you get 850mb moisture crossing the mtns with temps this cold it almost always produces something.
Anywho 6z GFS says this should last through mid afternoon.
Good morning from the high country...
24s 4 hour time span showing sunrise over the fresh snow. For reference....Roan Mtn is to the far right and Mt. Mitchell is far away just right of dead center.