uncle W

comparing analogs for this winter...1936-37 added... NYC monthly average temperature from Sept-Mar... feel free to add any analogs used for this winters forecast...I will add them to the list... year...…Sept.....OCT.....NOV.....DEC.....JAN.....FEB.....MAR.....snowfall... 2019...…70.4.....59.9.....43.9…..38.3……39.2…………………………………. 1936.....68.2.....57.6.....42.7.....38.6.....40.2.....34.8.....36.5...…..15.6" 1959...…72.3.....59.8.....45.8.....38.4.....33.9.....36.3.....33.3...…..39.2" 1969...…69.0.....57.7.....46.4.....33.4.....25.1.....33.0.....38.7...…..25.6" 1977...…68.2.....54.9.....47.3.....35.7.....28.0.....27.2.....39.0...…..50.7" 1992.'.....67.2.....54.5.....46.5.....37.9.....36.3.....30.8.....39.7...…..24.5" 1995...…68.3.....61.6.....43.6.....32.4.....30.5.....33.9.....38.9...…..75.6" 2002...…70.2.....55.2.....46.0.....36.0.....27.5.....30.1.....43.1...…..49.8" 2003...…67.9.....55.1.....50.0.....37.6.....24.7.....35.0.....43.5...…..42.6" 2004......69.3.....56.0.....48.2.....38.4.....31.3.....36.5.....39.4...…..41.0" 2013...…67.9.....60.2.....45.3.....38.5.....28.6.....31.6.....37.7...…..57.4"

these are the years with the greatest snow depth on Jan. 31st in Newark since 1946... 1948-----7" 1949.....4" 1961.....9" 1963.....6" 1966.....7" 1987.....5" 2000.....4" 2004.....6" 2005.....7" 2011...15" 2015.....6" 2016.....7"

all the 1960's storms were measured when they ended...I say that because the final totals match the snow depth...

1993 is a good analog and that year got started in February and climaxed in March...its going to be March or bust for me...

eventually one of these long range storms will materialize as forecast...Maybe not this year but it will happen again...

I did the bridge tunnel route thru Delaware into Virginia...also route 301...both a little slower but more scenic...I95 in Virginia just past Dc is always slow and sometimes at a standstill...pick your poison...

don't take I81 unless you want to drive behind a line of trucks...its also colder than I95 ...I like to avoid the DC area...its roads are as crowded as ours...

you mentioned 1895-96 which didn't really get started until February and had a great March....another analog of hope would be 1913-14...it was worse than this year until Feb. 10th...1992-93 didn't get started until February...same for 1994-95...1995 did not have a good March...March 1993 had the super storm...March 1914 had a super storm...March 1896 had a foot of snow mid month...some other el nino winters that started late...1899-00 had hardly any snow until Feb. 17th...1991-92 was terrible until the last week of winter and first day of Spring...some other years... 1905-06...1923-24...1918-19 was the worst winter for snow did have its biggest snowfalls in March...the worst of all the el nino winters was 1997-98 and a last minute snowfall in March save it from being the worst snow season...Last winter had a good first week in March...I'm hoping we will get a good if not great March to salvage this winter...

1877... http://chroniclingamerica.loc.gov/lccn/sn83030214/1877-01-09/ed-1/seq-5/ 1884...storm http://bklyn.newspapers.com/image/50342130 1912...storm http://chroniclingamerica.loc.gov/lccn/sn83030214/1912-01-09/ed-1/seq-4/ http://chroniclingamerica.loc.gov/lccn/sn83030214/1912-01-13/ed-1/seq-2/ 1930...warm https://bklyn.newspapers.com/image/58234219/ 1942...cold https://bklyn.newspapers.com/image/52678953/ 1953...storm https://bklyn.newspapers.com/image/59518969/ 1996...home video... 1988...

1971 was ushered in with a snowstorm that measured 6.4" in Central Park and 7.2" in Bensonhurst Brooklyn....8" in parts of Long Island...9.9" in Dobbs Ferry....snow started falling about 1am and ended in the afternoon...1978 had a 2" snowfall on this date...first inch or more of that season...1976 saw rain that started on 12/31 change to 1" of snow before ending after ball drop in the early am hours...1967 had snow falling for the ball drop at midnight with 3" on the ground...that ended soon after...

the temperature was just below freezing for most of the storm in NYC and it still changed to a mix that evening ...JFK being right on the water with December Ocean Temperatures could have kept accumulations down there...

To old...the forecast was for snow flurries...Boston changed to rain for a time...in 1969 Boston got 4" of rain after 4" of snow. ..we did better both times...

they blew the forecast that day...maybe that was the reason...

the 1947 storm...

December 26th-27th has seen its share of major snowstorms and rain storms...the biggest snowstorms in order are... 1872......18.0"... 1890...…..8.0"... 1933......11.2" 1947......26.1"... 1969...…..6.8"... 2010......20.0".... 1947... http://world.nycsubway.org/perl/show?141114 http://world.nycsubway.org/perl/show?142010 http://bklyn.newspapers.com/image/52878037/ http://bklyn.newspapers.com/image/52878066/ 1872 from the NY Tribune... http://chroniclingam...-27/ed-1/seq-1/ http://chroniclingam...-27/ed-1/seq-5/ http://chroniclingam...-27/ed-1/seq-1/ http://bklyn.newspapers.com/image/50352788 http://bklyn.newspapers.com/image/50352790 http://bklyn.newspapers.com/image/50352791 1890 from the Evening World... http://chroniclingam...-26/ed-1/seq-1/ 1890... http://chroniclingam...-27/ed-1/seq-1/ http://chroniclingam...-27/ed-1/seq-2/ 1890 from the NY Sun... http://chroniclingam...-27/ed-1/seq-1/ http://chroniclingam...-27/ed-1/seq-2/ 1894 from the NY Tribune... http://chroniclingamerica.loc.gov/lccn/sn83030214/1894-12-27/ed-1/seq-1/ http://chroniclingamerica.loc.gov/lccn/sn83030272/1894-12-27/ed-1/seq-4/ http://chroniclingamerica.loc.gov/lccn/sn83030193/1894-12-27/ed-1/seq-1/ http://chroniclingamerica.loc.gov/lccn/sn83030193/1894-12-27/ed-1/seq-3/ 1933 from the Brooklyn Eagle... http://bklyn.newspapers.com/image/57565868/ http://bklyn.newspapers.com/image/57565928

Merry Christmas all...Scrooge is predicting a very positive ao...lets hope he reforms...

on this date in 1963 the heavy snow that was falling all afternoon changed to light sleet and freezing drizzle in the late evening...6-7" of snow fell and it was coated with crusty ice...the mix changed back to light snow before ending in the early am hours on the 24th...it stayed cloudy all day with temperatures peaking in the mid 30's after mid 20's in the morning...Christmas eve evening had a period of snow that coated the dirty snow in the streets...6" of snow was on the ground Christmas morning in most areas...the two day totals were... 6.6" in Central Park... 7.4" at Newark airport... 7.2" at LaGuardia airport... 3.7" at JFK... 7.4" at Dobbs Ferry... 7.8" in Elizabeth NJ... 6.2" in Paterson NJ... 6.7" on Staten Island... 6.2" in Brooklyn... 6.5" in Mineola..

3/28...

it even snowed on my birthday that year...

the Philadelphia Eagles won the football championship game in 1948 on this date during a snowstorm... 1948 in NYC...

25th-26th 1993?

it almost snowed on every holiday starting with the Thanksgiving weekend...there were snowflakes in the air on Christmas and Easter...

todays date in NYC weather history... 1995...

yeah its run privately...its been a dollar for decades...not like here for sure...its another world only two hours away...

my son bought a house in Dingmans ferry PA for 70, 000...it has two thirds of an acre of land...it takes me two hours to get there with normal traffic...