ChescoWx

As suspected the 12z GFS presents it's suppressed version....big snows all the way down in NC....

Happy New Year's Eve to all of you! Today looks like our last day that will be well above normal for quite a while. Unfortunately, while we start out sunny clouds will increase and some poorly timed showers and maybe even a rumble of thunder will arrive from the west. Rain should enter Western Chester County during the 7pm hour or so and with some luck will exit stage right (east) before the midnight hour. Our step down to well below normal temperatures starts tomorrow with closer to normal highs in the mid 40's. By the time we get to Friday we may start a pretty long stretch of freezing days with highs over the weekend struggling to escape the 20's. Snow chances increase by the end of the weekend and as we move into the first full week of 2025.

Happy New Year's Eve to all of you! Today looks like our last day that will be well above normal for quite a while. Unfortunately, while we start out sunny clouds will increase and some poorly timed showers and maybe even a rumble of thunder will arrive from the west. Rain should enter Western Chester County during the 7pm hour or so and with some luck will exit stage right (east) before the midnight hour. Our step down to well below normal temperatures starts tomorrow with closer to normal highs in the mid 40's. By the time we get to Friday we may start a pretty long stretch of freezing days with highs over the weekend struggling to escape the 20's. Snow chances increase by the end of the weekend and as we move into the first full week of 2025.

In this type of pattern suppression will be the biggest obstacle......that said I suspect a GFS run soon that has a big event back on the table and then at some point this week a big miss to the south.

Below is a listing of the Greatest December Snowstorms in Chester / SE Berks County PA History

Below is a listing of the Greatest December Snowstorms in Chester / SE Berks County PA History

12z Euro with a plowable event for many using Kutchera method to account for fluff factor etc.

Over the last 3 days most of Chester and Berks counties have picked up between 1.25" to 1.50" of rain. Today will be a beautiful late December day with temperatures again well into the 50's. New Year's Eve day starts dry but rings in 2025 wet. We turn chillier with closer to normal temperatures for New Year's Day before we fall to well below normal temperatures by Thursday through next weekend.

Over the last 3 days most of Chester and Berks counties have picked up between 1.25" to 1.50" of rain. Today will be a beautiful late December day with temperatures again well into the 50's. New Year's Eve day starts dry but rings in 2025 wet. We turn chillier with closer to normal temperatures for New Year's Day before we fall to well below normal temperatures by Thursday through next weekend.

The 12z European as it is now running seems to be showing the suppression issues I would suspect in this pattern.....that said - many runs to go!

Very chilly water temps off AC at only 42 degrees this AM....sea breeze has kicked in down the shore and may see temps fall back into the 40's on the beaches

Very chilly water temps off AC at only 42 degrees this AM....sea breeze has kicked in down the shore and may see temps fall back into the 40's on the beaches

In these situation I like to keep an eye on changes in the ensemble runs (only 12z runs). The trend has been for an increase in median snow on the Euro/CMC and decreasing amounts on the GFS. Looking at the teleconnections I would suspect suppression could be an issue with any significant snow events. Just my 2 cents on what should be a great winter pattern for much if not all of January!

Most of the area has picked up nearly 1" of rain over the last 3 days. We will finish the year not too far from normal annual rainfall. Today will be our warmest day since December 11th (59.6 degrees). Many spots could hit 60 degrees! Rain chances increase again tonight before we finally see some sun tomorrow. Still mild tomorrow with highs in the low 50's before we see more rain on New Year's Eve. We then start the trend to colder days with temperatures by Friday and next weekend falling below freezing for high temperatures.

Most of the area has picked up nearly 1" of rain over the last 3 days. We will finish the year not too far from normal annual rainfall. Today will be our warmest day since December 11th (59.6 degrees). Many spots could hit 60 degrees! Rain chances increase again tonight before we finally see some sun tomorrow. Still mild tomorrow with highs in the low 50's before we see more rain on New Year's Eve. We then start the trend to colder days with temperatures by Friday and next weekend falling below freezing for high temperatures.

Most spots across the area picked up between 0.40" to 0.60" of rain since last evening. Here in East Nantmeal we have picked up 0.56". Some off and on showers continue through early afternoon and then rain looks like it will return late tonight through early Sunday. We will dry out a bit tomorrow before more rain returns tomorrow night. Very mild for the rest of the year as we warm well into the 50's tomorrow. Rain chances again look likely by New Year's Evening before we see temperatures chill down to normal by New Year's Day. Well below normal temperatures are likely by Thursday and Friday.

Most spots across the area picked up between 0.40" to 0.60" of rain since last evening. Here in East Nantmeal we have picked up 0.56". Some off and on showers continue through early afternoon and then rain looks like it will return late tonight through early Sunday. We will dry out a bit tomorrow before more rain returns tomorrow night. Very mild for the rest of the year as we warm well into the 50's tomorrow. Rain chances again look likely by New Year's Evening before we see temperatures chill down to normal by New Year's Day. Well below normal temperatures are likely by Thursday and Friday.

Some lower spots like Warwick Park and Chester Springs have already fallen to below freezing....we should see temps rebound bit before any precipitation starts towards the 11pm hour. 34.3 here in East Nantmeal

Yesterday was our 6th below freezing high temperature of the month. This is the most sub-freezing December days here in East Nantmeal since back in 2017 when we had 10 such days. Today should be our last below normal day till next year! Before we warm up we will get a little wet. We will need to watch temperatures overnight tonight as we could see some spotty freezing drizzle or rain over the higher spots in NW Chester and SE Berks Counties before temperatures rise. It looks pretty wet between now and New Year’s Day with as much as 1.50” of rain before midnight New Year’s Eve. We will turn much colder again by later next week.

Yesterday was our 6th below freezing high temperature of the month. This is the most sub-freezing December days here in East Nantmeal since back in 2017 when we had 10 such days. Today should be our last below normal day till next year! Before we warm up we will get a little wet. We will need to watch temperatures overnight tonight as we could see some spotty freezing drizzle or rain over the higher spots in NW Chester and SE Berks Counties before temperatures rise. It looks pretty wet between now and New Year’s Day with as much as 1.50” of rain before midnight New Year’s Eve. We will turn much colder again by later next week.

As has been the trend for much of December we will see below normal temperatures today and tomorrow. However, by Saturday we start a warming trend that will peak on Sunday before we start a gradual chill down as we move into the New Year. If you like sun this afternoon and tomorrow look like the last sunshine of 2024. Rain chances increase late Friday night and will continue into New Year's Day. There may be a little freezing rain or drizzle tomorrow night across the higher spots of NW Chester and SE Berks counties. Rain totals by New Year's day may be between 1.5" to 2.0"

As has been the trend for much of December we will see below normal temperatures today and tomorrow. However, by Saturday we start a warming trend that will peak on Sunday before we start a gradual chill down as we move into the New Year. If you like sun this afternoon and tomorrow look like the last sunshine of 2024. Rain chances increase late Friday night and will continue into New Year's Day. There may be a little freezing rain or drizzle tomorrow night across the higher spots of NW Chester and SE Berks counties. Rain totals by New Year's day may be between 1.5" to 2.0"

You and I both! From 1967 till January 1978 no storms over 6" at PHL

Below is a list of the greatest Christmas Time snowstorms that occurred between the 24th and 26th here in Chester and Southeast Berks County in the Philly burbs since 1893. The attached photo is from the front page of the Philadelphia Inquirer from Christmas Day 1966. The previous evening delivered the biggest Christmas Eve snowstorm across the area. This was a dynamic storm that included frequent lightning and thunder to go along with the heavy snow. Totals from the 1966 Christmas Eve Blizzard ranged from 10" at Honey Brook to as much as 22" at West Chester. This followed a storm just 4 days earlier that delivered as much as 11" of snow at Devault. Both West Chester and Devault recorded over 32" of snow that snowy Christmas Week! The greatest snowstorm of the Christmas Season delivered even more snow to the area. That storm began at 8am on Christmas Day in 1909 at Coatesville with Mr. WT. Gordon the cooperative observer for the Weather Bureau reporting 13" by 9pm Christmas Night....another 25" would fall between 9pm and when the snow stopped the next morning at 630am. Other large Christmas time snowstorms occurred in 1912 / 1933 / 1961 / 1969 and 2002. Merry Christmas Everyone!!

Below is a list of the greatest Christmas Time snowstorms that occurred between the 24th and 26th here in Chester and Southeast Berks County in the Philly burbs since 1893. The attached photo is from the front page of the Philadelphia Inquirer from Christmas Day 1966. The previous evening delivered the biggest Christmas Eve snowstorm across the area. This was a dynamic storm that included frequent lightning and thunder to go along with the heavy snow. Totals from the 1966 Christmas Eve Blizzard ranged from 10" at Honey Brook to as much as 22" at West Chester. This followed a storm just 4 days earlier that delivered as much as 11" of snow at Devault. Both West Chester and Devault recorded over 32" of snow that snowy Christmas Week! The greatest snowstorm of the Christmas Season delivered even more snow to the area. That storm began at 8am on Christmas Day in 1909 at Coatesville with Mr. WT. Gordon the cooperative observer for the Weather Bureau reporting 13" by 9pm Christmas Night....another 25" would fall between 9pm and when the snow stopped the next morning at 630am. Other large Christmas time snowstorms occurred in 1912 / 1933 / 1961 / 1969 and 2002. Merry Christmas Everyone!!