ChescoWx

18z GFS

Found this Norlun in the area from 2016. Here in East Nantmeal we ended with 7.3" - long duration event with the heavy period of snow falling in the late afternoon of February 9th

Some Chesco climate data for today

Solid thoughts IMO thanks Kevin!

I suspect this one will impact folks further south and east from the Lehigh Valley with the relative higher amounts....that said the ratios will be good so should not take a lot of precip to get us to similar snow totals to the last storm for most locales...

18z NAM looks very close to what is in the current NWS Forecast with a little less snow north and west and the focus of snows ( IVT?) over the I95 corridor.

Updated NWS Point and Click have 1.5" to 2.5" for most of Eastern PA from Allentown down through most of the Philly burbs with up to 3" possible over toward Phily - seems not buying what above Hrrr is selling...

One of my favorites professionals is Bernie Rayno....he sees a general 1" to 3" across our area with the highest totals from DC to Baltimore over to Atlantic City (3" to 6" with maybe 8")

A little Norlun Trough action on this run tries to jackpot some areas across the area....so tough to nail those down

This morning's lows were the coldest since December 24, 2022 when we recorded 2.8 above here in East Nantmeal. Some area lows this AM. East Nantmeal (7.9) / Warwick Twp (7.4) / Kennett Square (9.1) / Lionville (10.9) / Elverson (10.6) / Chester Springs (11.0). It will be sunny but cold today with most spots struggling to reach the low to mid 20's. Clouds return tomorrow but dry and we will approach but likely not pass freezing in most areas. Snow chances increase again likely right after the AM rush on Friday into Friday night. Saturday looks to be the coldest day so far this season with temperatures not much above 20 degrees for afternoon highs. Records for today: High 65 (1973) / Low 13 below (1982) / Rain 1.83" (1994) / Snow 6.0" (1978)

This morning's lows were the coldest since December 24, 2022 when we recorded 2.8 above here in East Nantmeal. Some area lows this AM. East Nantmeal (7.9) / Warwick Twp (7.4) / Kennett Square (9.1) / Lionville (10.9) / Elverson (10.6) / Chester Springs (11.0). It will be sunny but cold today with most spots struggling to reach the low to mid 20's. Clouds return tomorrow but dry and we will approach but likely not pass freezing in most areas. Snow chances increase again likely right after the AM rush on Friday into Friday night. Saturday looks to be the coldest day so far this season with temperatures not much above 20 degrees for afternoon highs. Records for today: High 65 (1973) / Low 13 below (1982) / Rain 1.83" (1994) / Snow 6.0" (1978)

https://www.weather.gov/wrh/TextProduct?product=pnsphi

The NBM really did the best job IMO....it is usually more conservative but likely not a bad starting point

Continues to snow lightly here in East Nantmeal have picked up some minor additional accumulations from the snow and earlier sleet. Will do the final measure when the precip stops. Looks like I will need to go back out and shovel or sweep again...

A steady mixture of sleet and some flakes here in East Nantmeal temp up to 24.7.

Light snow here in EN temp at 23.0 degrees. Most areas picked up between 1.5" to 3.0" of snow last night and this morning. The NWS has continued the WWA till 4pm for maybe up to another inch of snow and or sleet accumulation today. Skies will clear overnight tonight and with the clear skies and fresh snow cover temperatures in some spots could fall into the single digits above zero tonight. Wednesday should be sunny but continued cold with highs in the low 20's. We could see some additional snow arrive Thursday night into Friday....does not look significant at this time but could make for another slippery commute on Friday morning. Records for today: High 61 (1932) / Low minus 10 (1982) / Rain 1.71" (1924) / Snow 10.0" (1945)

Light snow here in EN temp at 23.0 degrees. Most areas picked up between 1.5" to 3.0" of snow last night and this morning. The NWS has continued the WWA till 4pm for maybe up to another inch of snow and or sleet accumulation today. Skies will clear overnight tonight and with the clear skies and fresh snow cover temperatures in some spots could fall into the single digits above zero tonight. Wednesday should be sunny but continued cold with highs in the low 20's. We could see some additional snow arrive Thursday night into Friday....does not look significant at this time but could make for another slippery commute on Friday morning. Records for today: High 61 (1932) / Low minus 10 (1982) / Rain 1.71" (1924) / Snow 10.0" (1945)

Still some light snow falling here in East Nantmeal temp at 22.7 snow since midnight 1.3" - total snow so far 2.5"

1.3" as of midnight here in East Nantmeal Twp.

The biggest collapse in Philly sports history!!! How many days till pitchers and catchers??? Thank God for the Phillies!!!!!

As of 10pm 0.8" here in East Nantmeal snow intensity picking up over last 30 minutes

NWS ups Western Chesco with their last update snow has increased here in intensity in the last hour ... URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 827 PM EST Mon Jan 15 2024 PAZ101-161430- /O.EXT.KPHI.WW.Y.0002.000000T0000Z-240116T2100Z/ Western Chester- Including the cities of Honey Brook and Oxford 827 PM EST Mon Jan 15 2024 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM EST TUESDAY... * WHAT...Snow. Total snow accumulations of 3 to 6 inches. * WHERE...Western Chester.

Not a big fan of model snow forecasts this close in but....GFS with an area of significant snows running along the higher elevation locales....so south of the typical low spots in the Lehigh Valley and focused across the higher spots from Lancaster County to NW Chester County and then through Western Montco and Bucks Counties....

Looks like the NWS upgraded all N and W of the fall line see below from AFD "Expecting 2 to 4 inches along the I-95 corridor and surrounding suburbs, and 3 to 5 inches north and west of the Fall Line. 1 to 3 inches of snow is expected elsewhere across Delmarva and southern New Jersey."