ChescoWx

63.7 currently which is the high temp - also represents a elevation record high for the day - eclipsing the old mark of 59.6 in 2014. The all-time Chester County mark of 67 set back in 1975 appears to remain safe

Agreed 100% - great idea!!

Steve - exactly a KU - no way - a snow event...possibly

From JB after the 12z runs "The purpose of such extensive discussion on this is not to get into a fight over snow in central park, though I do think it will snow there and if I had to pick a number for snow by Mon am, there it would be 3. Its to get out in front of this, at the risk of being wrong, to explain why modeling is not the end-all to a problem, Say what you want, but there was no bowling ball rolling through with any hope a couple of days ago and this period Jan 5-12 has been on my radar for a while now. I can't help what happened before, and I see what is coming after, but in the meantime, there will be some triumphs with this storm as well as trauma. But this is not a backyard snow argument, for until the meteorology is settled the snow result is not clear, but with that warm water off the east coast, and the upper low coming right at it, I believe this low winds up between Cape May and Va beach, not north of that. As said, you may be 38 over 33 and raining and then bingo, the big wet flakes start coming down. The clipper on the euro spread snow further south than previous runs, and then next storm is further south. While the worst case ( lets say no snow south of I80 in the east and I 70 in the Ohio valley) is on the table, so is the best case as described in the earlier idea."

From JB today after 12z runs for the period before doom and gloom becomes full throated mid month!! "But there is a real chance here that the storm on the weekend does exit to the south and it does snow all the way to the coast. No longer are there just pressing height falls on the model. And this is what I am talking about, If you have different mass considerations, the movement of the mass, being lifted in one place, sinking n another, will bend the baroclinic ribbon, If you then focus the height fall center where the bend occurs you are in business, Truth be told, the 500 mb the Euro has is for a midwest to northeast snowstorm, it is still has to get some warm air out of the way, but they run at least makes 2 points. 1) it is not so far fetched that before the doom and gloom after day 10, there are winter threats and 2 ) Remember these are mathematical representations of a system that can not be tamed by men. Whether it happens or not, The 12z run while more bullish is likely not through correcting as it is desperate to try to string it out at the end, but that may be a function a feedback, You roll an upper low through the east like this and here is the problem btw the stringing out at the end and you probably are going to see it snow to the coast from the Delmarva north Of course the GFS had a nice little twist too it in the longer term And before that the GEFS jumps on a clipper but has nothing behind it and huge fight ensues with the Euro having less with the clipper and a cutter behind it, I like the middle. More clipper to push the cold, then a more southern track of the storm from Texas to the Va Capes. I think that storm will be further southeast, near the Va coast next week We'll see In the meantime there is room before the doom and gloom for some fun and games"

Dr Joe D "former Dr. Dewpoint" at WB from today's post... "This opens the arctic flood gates with coast to coast, border to border cold including at some point a Florida freeze threat"

AM Low here in East Nantmeal was 30.0 while down at Marsh Creek at lake level down to 22.7 - these higher AM min temps are killing any hope of making my December forecast ....not that hopes were that high anyway

AM low temps in spots just 2 miles away like down at Marsh Creek at 400 ft ASL made it down to a low of 25.8 while here a few hundred feet up almost 10 degrees warmer this AM at 35.6

Beautiful day today across Western Chester County....great to see the pattern and analogs aligning for what should indeed be a memorable core of the JFM winter months of storms and rumors of storms....fun times ahead for those that like winter weather in this area!

Words of wisdom Steve....wish we had more folks on here but I truly appreciate all the peeps that do choose to post here - thanks!!

I unlike most here are quite enthused with the pattern. I remain confident we end up with an above average snow month and January remains on path for some very interesting times IMHO. Folks sometimes forget even out here in the NW burbs - we only average 4.7" of snow in December - we have already had 1.5" of snow this month and I expect we will add to the snow total on Monday before the change to rain (I suspect it will be a slow process once N and W of I95) - watch for another winter event around Christmas and toward the New Year. Interesting times ahead....

JB still on the snow and ice train north of the m/d line - as depicted on the 6z Euro means run

The well respected MET - JB from WB is on board the snow and ice train for north of the mason dixon line with the next event (16th-18th) since last Saturday. He is still not getting into accumulation but sees a Miller B storm running to the lakes with a secondary popping off the coast....and then some strong to near record cold to follow by the pre-Christmas weekend.

AM low 31.5 Normal today 43.1/29.1

Not yet in my NWS forecast but keep an eye on tomorrow AM...expect squalls to make it at least into Western Chester County and maybe all the way to the coast. May get more tomorrow (easy to do with just a coating from yesterday) than our 1st little winter event...something to watch for...

Nice temp inversion around Western Chester County this morning with Low spots well below freezing including Marsh Creek down below 400 feet at 28.0 and PTW at 30.9 - while here in East Nantmeal at 685 ft we bask at 38.4. Would be interesting to find out how many less freezing days we have here up the mountain incline

1.41" of precipitation over last 3 days. Wet snow this AM did not accumulate (just a light coating) as the heaviest bands were west of East Nantmeal.

Not quite seeing what you are.... I like a normal December temp wise....after a cold 1st 10 days of the month with an overall above average snow month....before a snowy January. Best month to "waste" cold is November

Kudos to JB for his call of snow down to the m/d line - moderate snow and 35 in Western Chester County PA

Through yesterday our November average temperature here in Western Chester County is at 40.1 - if the month ended today this would be the 15th coldest November since local records began in 1894 (126 years). Looking ahead most days with the exception of a couple days should average normal to below. Looks increasingly likely we will see our 1st below normal month since last November and a chilly finish and opening to December

Through yesterday halfway through November our average temp is 40.5 - if the month ended today it would be the 22nd coldest November since Chester County PA records began 126 years ago...in looking ahead I see very few above normal temp days over the remainder of the month. Giving us an excellent shot at at top 10 coldest November on record IMHO and of course our 1st below normal month since November 2018. For those interested I am planning on posting my Chester County winter forecast this weekend on both twitter and here.

A very impressive November cold outbreak! Today's high of just 32.0 exactly makes this the 2nd earliest sub freezing day in the Chester County PA 126 years of local records dating back to 1894. The previous earliest sub 32 day was the 30 degree high back on November 11. 1987. Additionally this morning's low of 19.1 broke the old elevation record (1983-Present) of 20.0 set in 1996. This also marked our 3rd record low in the last 5 days. Looking ahead another cold shot this weekend and no real warmups to above normal that may last through the end of November. We have a good chance to record our 1st below normal month since last November 2018. That month we ended up averaging out at 3.1 degrees below normal - through today we are at 3.8 degrees below normal.

Coldest temp this season here in Western Chester County also a new record Low for the 3rd time in the last 5 days here in the Philly burbs of Western Chester County. The 23.1 before midnight last night broke the old mark of 24 in 1995 and this morning's 19.1 breaks the record of 20 from 1996. Also the earliest low below 20 since 11/6/91. Impressive early season cold.