ChescoWx

Steve not sure what you are looking at but 5" to 9" between both of those mean runs....nothing bad about that at this time frame IMO

18z EPS mean - significant snows still there....just saying - blockbuster I have never believed that significant 6" plus certainly on the table for most on here

18z GFS mean - not far from my thoughts - not too shabby

windshield wipers folks.....truth is in between.....quick reminder models are not forecasts....only guidance.

Not to throw too much caution on the snow parade here....but the EURO 12z operational was about the snowiest member (so not buying that) - the ENS mean looks more realistic. To caution further look at that likelihood of 12" or more.....just saying folks....not a slam dunk at all for a major snow....significant 6" or greater I can see that.

under Western Chesco thread

WXSIM with a 12z blend of the NAM/GFS has total snow accumulation now from 17" to 24" Start times for Western Chester County PA - flurries at 7am / Light snow by 11am and S+ by 4pm Sunday: Dense overcast. A slight chance of snow in the morning, then snow likely in the afternoon. High 32. Wind chill around 22. Wind east-northeast around 4 mph in the morning, becoming 9 mph, gusting to 17 mph, in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation 70 percent. Precipitation (liquid equivalent) mostly around a quarter of an inch. Snow accumulation 1 to 2 inches. Sunday night: Dense overcast. Snow likely in the evening, then a mix of snow and rain likely after midnight. Breezy. Low 28, but temperatures rising after midnight. Wind chill as low as 19. Wind east-northeast around 13 mph, gusting to 20 mph. Chance of precipitation 80 percent. Precipitation (liquid equivalent) mostly between half an inch and one inch. Snow accumulation 3 to 5 inches. Monday: Dense overcast. A mix of snow and rain likely in the morning, then snow likely in the afternoon. Windy. High 34. Wind chill around 21. Wind east-northeast around 16 mph, gusting to 24 mph. Chance of precipitation 80 percent. Precipitation (liquid equivalent) mostly around 2 inches. Snow accumulation 12 to 16 inches. Little if any freezing rain accumulation. Maximum snow level 300 feet above ground. Monday night: Dense overcast. Snow likely. Breezy. Low 31. Wind chill as low as 22. Wind northeast around 12 mph, gusting to 20 mph. Chance of precipitation 70 percent. Precipitation (liquid equivalent) mostly around a quarter of an inch. Snow accumulation about an inch.

January 1996 was a Miller A

Wxsim with 6z NAM/GFS blend sees snow starting by 630am on Sunday and lasting to some degree or another till 10am on Tuesday AM. Forecast is for 11" to 18" with some ZR/IP mix overnight Sunday included Sunday: Dense overcast. A chance of snow in the morning, then snow likely in the afternoon. High 31. Wind chill around 21. Wind east around 5 mph in the morning, becoming 10 mph, gusting to 18 mph, in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation 80 percent. Precipitation (liquid equivalent) mostly around half an inch. Snow accumulation 2 to 4 inches. Sunday night: Dense overcast. A mix of snow, freezing rain, and sleet likely in the evening, then a mix of snow, freezing rain, sleet, and rain likely after midnight. Breezy. Low 29, but temperatures rising after midnight. Wind chill as low as 19. Wind east around 13 mph, gusting to 20 mph. Chance of precipitation 80 percent. Precipitation (liquid equivalent) mostly between 1 and 2 inches. Snow or ice (on ground) accumulation 4 to 6 inches. Above-ground freezing rain accumulation up to 0.2 inches. Monday: Dense overcast. A mix of snow, rain, and sleet likely in the morning, then snow likely in the afternoon. Breezy. High 35. Wind chill around 23. Wind east around 15 mph, gusting to 23 mph. Chance of precipitation 80 percent. Precipitation (liquid equivalent) mostly between 1 and 2 inches. Snow or ice (on ground) accumulation 5 to 8 inches. Monday night: Dense overcast. Snow likely. Low 31. Wind chill as low as 23. Wind north-northeast around 10 mph, gusting to 19 mph. Chance of precipitation 60 percent. Precipitation (liquid equivalent) mostly less than a quarter of an inch. Snow accumulation about half an inch. Tuesday: Dense overcast in the morning, becoming cloudy in the afternoon. A chance of snow in the morning, then a slight chance of snow in the afternoon. High 33. Wind chill around 24. Wind north around 10 mph, gusting to 17 mph. Chance of precipitation 50 percent. Precipitation (liquid equivalent) mostly around a tenth of an inch. Snow accumulation about half an inch.

Our warm January continues with only 3 below normal days over the 1st 27 days of the month...the next few certainly look to be below normal but that will be the exception to the rule in our current warm cycle

Agreed Steve....more likely than not hence NWS high % chances this far out....that said I expect a slow arrival due to mighty low DPs....plus I suspect for the coastal plain some mixing issues and even back a bit NW of the fall line. Looks a lot to me like a typical storm with mixing in the City and SJ and increasing amounts N and W, Sort of like storms of my youth

Still ice on trees and the deck - temp up to 33.3 but no melting yet

Quite a bit more ice than I expected today....still holding at 32.8 on VP and 31.8 on Tempest - trees are pretty weighted down in back

Moderate sleet shower just passed through across NW Chester County as of 1042am temp 30.6

A mix of IP and ZR in East Nantmeal 31.4/22.8 on VP and 30.2/22.3 on the Tempest

I will start this party off - a few very light snow flakes just starting to fall here in East Nantmeal in NW Chester County PA 32.3/19.2

Keep the faith- what happens in December the winter remembers!! Near normal snow for all this season!!!

Yesterday was only out 2nd below normal day this month...the last being on New Year's day

Latest WXSIM Forecast is only a wee bit different with the 18z model data compared to the 6z data from this AM! This is why I love some folks on here who get fired up with a WXSIM forecast....when it is really only represents a hyper local output for NW Chester County PA... it's a simple regurgitation of a GFS/NAM blend that changes from run to run. I always try to tell folks that models or programs like WXSIM are never a true forecast...only an output of an imperfect numerical model attempting to inform a true weather professional of what 1 or 2 models of the many at a weather professional disposal are as they try to use all available data to make a true forecast for any given site. All of that said....the 18z forecast is not going to be correct.....reality will be something else....could we be NAMMED on the next run or tomorrow at 12z - of course. Key point stay tuned - lots of storms or at leas rumor of storms on the table for the foreseeable future - interesting times ahead - keep the faith! Monday night: Dense overcast. A chance of a mix of sleet, rain, and snow after midnight. Low 32. Wind east-northeast around 2 mph in the evening, becoming 6 mph after midnight. Chance of precipitation 30 percent. Precipitation (liquid equivalent) mostly less than a tenth of an inch. No snow or ice (on ground) accumulation expected. Tuesday: Dense overcast in the morning, becoming cloudy in the afternoon. A chance of a mix of rain, sleet, and snow in the morning, then a chance of rain in the afternoon. High 39. Wind east-northeast around 8 mph. Chance of precipitation 70 percent. Precipitation (liquid equivalent) mostly around a quarter of an inch. No snow or ice (on ground) accumulation expected. Tuesday night: Dense overcast in the evening, becoming cloudy after midnight. A chance of rain. Low 35. Wind east-northeast around 2 mph in the evening, becoming north-northwest after midnight. Chance of precipitation 50 percent. Precipitation mostly around a tenth of an inch. Wednesday: Cloudy. Relatively mild. High 43. Wind north around 4 mph. Wednesday night: Cloudy in the evening, becoming dense overcast after midnight. A slight chance of rain in the evening, then a chance of a mix of rain and snow after midnight. Low 33. Wind chill ranging from 25 to 37. Wind north-northeast around 5 mph in the evening, becoming 8 mph, gusting to 17 mph, after midnight. Chance of precipitation 50 percent. Precipitation (liquid equivalent) mostly less than a quarter of an inch. Little or no snow accumulation expected. Thursday: Dense overcast in the morning, becoming cloudy in the afternoon. Snow likely. Breezy. High 35. Wind chill around 24. Wind north-northeast around 15 mph, gusting to 25 mph. Chance of precipitation 70 percent. Precipitation (liquid equivalent) mostly around a quarter of an inch. Snow accumulation 1 to 2 inches.

For your entertainment....with 6z data the WXSIM has quite the wintry week in store - snow arriving by 930pm on Monday night - becoming briefly moderate around the 1am to 3am time frame then continuing lightly for much of the day on Tuesday as a mix of snow and sleet - total snow/IP accumulation by Wed AM about 2". Then it shows off and on mixed precip for Wed before heavy snow begins on Thursday around 7AM with falling temps through the day before snow tapers off by 10pm....but not before 14" to 18" of snow has fallen.

Good to have you back on this forum back down here....not a bad forecast at this point IMHO....but as we know - this will in all likelihood change

Hey guys, Below is the 12z GFS - now I am not buying what this is selling as I think it is counting IP as snow in it's 10:1 calculation. That said I am inclined to like the 0z Euro Ensembles with paint a more general 3" to 6" across most spots north of the M/D line.