ChescoWx

Really liking a solid 3" to 6" for much of the area - as NWS said this morning the warm layer will be shallow so might be a case of snow or IP with rain further south. In these cases the snow can overcome the thin warm layer....

Still only 1 day all season with a temp below 20 degrees...of course many lower spots have had many more this season, 20.5 here and 21 and KMQS this AM

My earlier post had an error on monthly avg - correction below

We are now at below normal seasonal snow to date for the 1st time since December 16th

Of course most spots including here in Chester County are still at above normal snowfall for the season to date.... which in a year which should end up with below normal snow....is not a bad thing. We are not done with snow this season....keep the faith!

Euro ensembles for me the go to says - snow is coming before month's end

I have gone back and analyzed long running data now for both long term Chester County sites and have now updated to include both West Chester PA and Coatesville PA. Clearly West Chester and Coatesville are well aligned for 12 decades....and almost exactly the same over the last 2 decades....however, PHL is just as clearly demonstrating the heat island problem as they begin to accelerate away - not at all consistent.

I went back and updated the analysis for the last 12 decades now including the Philadelphia data from 1900-1949 (this represents raw unadjusted data with no after the fact adjustments) comparing data for the last 120 years from 1900 thru 2019. The key finding is that the suspected rapid PHL heat island impact and problems are growing at an even greater rate than ever imagined....the difference between the heat island near Philadelphia and the burbs using actual NWS observed temps is telling....Just look at how quickly the lines are diverging and you will see where this is going. Just look at that % difference column and you can see the disparity between average temperatures has never been higher and is only getting more pronounced.

I ran a comparison between my Davis VP - Ambient WS-2902A - Tempest and KMQS - see below

In reviewing out winter (December through March) trends - our last 6 decades here in Western Chester County PA have seen both the 3 coldest decades from the 60's thru 80's to now the 3 warmest decades 1990's thru 2010's - as always weather truly is cyclical - how long will this warming cycle continue before the next cooling cycle we saw through the 80's?

What happens in December the winter remembers!! - Man I am pulling them all out today!! The weenies need all the help they can get!!!!

Lock it up per the attached - as the old weather proverb states "snow in Spain equals snow on the coastal plain bringing much travel pain including places like Wayne" https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2021/01/09/madrid-spain-snow-blizzard/

I think a lot of folks forget climatology unless you live North and West of the fall line you average in the low 20's for snow.....heck it's only January 9th - PHL (6.6") has more snow than Chicago (5.4") so far this season. On that note where I live in NW Chester County we average the same seasonal snowfall as Chicago....I always tell folks that and they are amazed. Almost all stations and location in our area all solidly above normal snowfall for the season to date. Keep the faith but remember where we live - we just completed a 2 of the snowiest decades in history in this area....that is what was NOT normal....we are simply trending back to normal - it is all cyclical and not all things lead to climate....which is why Ben Franklin liked to say people will always tell you it was colder and snowier when they were younger....he also early on understood that climate will always be changing!

We have plenty of sufficient cold on the map....a suppressed storm track (always good in my book) and many storms or rumors of storms in our future.....this is not 2019/20....

Of interest and perspective our snowfall through January 5th is the the 5th snowiest in the last 15 years.......

Light rain and 34.8 here in East Nantmeal Twp - high so far today current temp VP has 0.27" (but suspect unmelted snow yet to drop) Tempest at 0.23" and Coco still has snow in funnel

Now mixing with sleet - total snow/IP is 1.0" on all surfaces here in East Nantmeal Township

32.6 here in NW Chester County with moderate snow and big flakes - even accumulating on paved surfaces