ChescoWx

Jim be sure to keep measuring as long as sleet is falling - that is still snow for recording purposes....when it goes to ZR then no more snow

At 4pm - 45 min ago we had 2.5" here in East Nantmeal Twp. in Chester County - temp looks to have fallen as far as it will down to 25.6 with very heavy snow - sleet should be here within the next couple hours

As of 3pm 1.0" exactly in East Nantmeal - temp down to 25.4 with heavier snow moving north toward NW Chesco should be picking up before the change to sleet - thinking by 530pm or so here in NW Chesco and by 415pm at KPHL

Yes!....might be the lower end though.....brutal forecast every hour change over is late.....

12z Euro still not taking sleet into account - goes for both the regular and the K map

Oh it's coming!! sleetfest....but again sleet gets a bad wrap!! it's white like snow and when accumulated even looks like snow....it counts as snow .....it's great for snow board sledding and takes longer to melt - how is that for positive Paul!!

Light snow began at 12:25pm in East Nantmeal 28.2 when flakes started now at VP2 at 28.1 / 19.6 - tempest at 26.9 / 17

My final forecast tweaked downward a bit to account for more sleet.

correct!

Hi Carmen! If only it was snow - cut that by more than half - I think majority of our snow accumulation will be sleet...plowing will be tough that is for sure! Good luck!

Cloudy 25.4 / DP 14.6 on VP and 24.3 /11 on Tempest - due point has been falling steadily and is at the low for the day - expecting a thump of snow to tons of sleet and then back to snow....building a glacier in NW Chesco

Last 2 runs of the GFS just want to put that 20" snow blob right over NW Chesco....if only it could tell the difference between snow and sleet....I do think NW Chesco is in an ideal spot to be Sleet Champ tomorrow....wish us luck!

WXSIM for NW Chester County now has 4 hours of snow from 130p to 530p with 2.6" snow / than 7 hours of heavy sleet from 530pm thru 1230am with 3.2" accumulation and then snow thru 7am with another 4.6" of snow - for a grand snow total of 10.4" - how's that for a nice straight forward concrete recipe!!

This will no doubt verify 6 in along southern Chesco to I think that is 20 over me....

Just want to be sure everyone on here knows sleet counts as snow.....it just accumulates slower. When measuring tomorrow you should measure the snowfall when it changes to sleet/IP and then measure the sleet accumulation in inches. If it goes back to snow clean the board and start over. You then add the 3 together to get the total snow total. No doubt most know this but want to be sure

18z NAM much more in line now with GFS Euro.....makes more sense

Kutchera from 12z Euro

Sleet of course does accumulate and counts as snow just a heck of lot slower to accumulate...and shovel LOL! WXSIM now clearly seeing the IP mixing occurring - currently with 12z GFS and NAM it has S+ for NW Chesco by 230pm with a turn to heavy IP by 530pm - with 3" of snow at that point then it shows the heavy IP accumulating an additional 1.5" of snow/IP by 1130pm over a 6 hour period....then back to S+ till 6am with total snow accumulation of 13.2"

Of course we don't shovel or scrape a model run....stay tuned it will change

Wednesday: Mostly cloudy to cloudy in the morning, becoming dense overcast in the afternoon. A slight chance of snow in the morning, then snow likely in the afternoon. High 35. Wind chill ranging from 19 to 26. Wind east-northeast around 7 mph, gusting to 16 mph, in the morning, becoming 10 mph, gusting to 18 mph, in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation 70 percent. Precipitation (liquid equivalent) mostly between a quarter and half an inch. Snow accumulation 2 to 3 inches. Wednesday night: Dense overcast. Patchy light fog after midnight. Snow likely. Breezy. Low 28. Wind chill as low as 18. Wind east-northeast around 14 mph, gusting to 20 mph, in the evening, becoming 11 mph, gusting to 20 mph, after midnight. Chance of precipitation 80 percent. Precipitation (liquid equivalent) mostly around 2 inches. Snow accumulation 15 to 20 inches. Thursday: Cloudy. A chance of a mix of snow and sleet in the morning, then a slight chance of snow in the afternoon. High 30. Wind north-northeast around 9 mph, gusting to 18 mph, in the morning, becoming 5 mph in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation 60 percent. Precipitation (liquid equivalent) mostly less than a quarter of an inch. Snow or ice (on ground) accumulation about an inch.

WXSIM with 18z GFS NAM has 13" to 18" of snow for Western Chesco.....it has 850's warming to 30.6 at 2am at their warmest....hence the inflated totals..... Wednesday: Cloudy in the morning, becoming dense overcast in the afternoon. A slight chance of snow in the morning, then snow likely in the afternoon. High 35. Wind chill ranging from 21 to 25. Wind northeast around 7 mph, gusting to 15 mph, in the morning, becoming 11 mph, gusting to 19 mph, in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation 70 percent. Precipitation (liquid equivalent) mostly around a quarter of an inch. Snow accumulation 1 to 2 inches. Wednesday night: Dense overcast. Snow likely. Breezy. Low 29. Wind chill as low as 18. Wind northeast around 14 mph, gusting to 21 mph. Chance of precipitation 80 percent. Precipitation (liquid equivalent) mostly around 2 inches. Snow accumulation 12 to 16 inches.

Of note In 126 years of December records in Chester County only 26 storms have exceeded 6" only on average once every 5 years! Only 2x has a December storm exceeded 20" - six times 12" plus and only 8 times 10" or more....climo argues against a major snow event....but of course that does not mean it cannot happen....just rare!

Gonna be dicey IMO for most on here unless N and W of MDT - RDG - ABE line.......

I always like to start looking at the NAM for the profiles at this juncture....growing pretty confident the 850's get to over 0c over much of the area for a time on Wednesday night before crashing SE again....with that in mind thinking a early thump of snow to IP for a while and back to snow before ending with a solid 6" to 9" of snow/concrete snow in my area of NW Chesco.....the all snow zone will be from around MDT to just N of RDG to just N of ABE and NE from there.....but allow me the option to change my forecast by game time!