ChescoWx

Low fog and clouds down the shore in Sea Isle City NJ...while sunshine is breaking out in Western Chester County PA

1st AM low in the 30's this season (39.8) and 1st sub-40 reading since the 35.3 on May 13th

Below is the 9 day WXSIM forecast for Western Chester County - looks like around 0.68" of rain forecast for tomorrow's event WXSIM text forecast for East Nantmeal, initialized at 10:00 AM Oct 15, 2020 _______________________________________________________________________________ This afternoon: Mostly clear. Breezy and warm. High 72. Wind southwest around 12 mph, gusting to 22 mph. Tonight: Fair in the evening, becoming mostly cloudy after midnight. A slight chance of rain after midnight. Low 51. Wind southwest around 8 mph, gusting to 17 mph, in the evening, becoming west around 5 mph after midnight. Chance of precipitation 20 percent. Precipitation mostly less than a tenth of an inch. Friday: Dense overcast. Patchy light fog. A chance of rain in the morning, then rain likely in the afternoon. High 54. Wind west-northwest around 5 mph. Chance of precipitation 70 percent. Precipitation mostly around half an inch. Friday night: Dense overcast in the evening, becoming mostly cloudy after midnight. Patchy light fog in the evening, then light to moderate fog after midnight. Rain likely. Low 49. Wind west-northwest around 5 mph. Chance of precipitation 60 percent. Precipitation mostly around a quarter of an inch. Saturday: Sunny. High 57. Wind west-northwest around 6 mph, gusting to 15 mph. Saturday night: Clear. Low 40. Wind southwest near calm. Sunday: Sunny in the morning, becoming partly cloudy in the afternoon. High 60. Wind southeast around 2 mph in the morning, becoming 8 mph, gusting to 17 mph, in the afternoon. Sunday night: Partly to mostly cloudy in the evening, becoming mostly cloudy after midnight. Low 49. Wind southeast around 6 mph. Monday: Cloudy in the morning, becoming dense overcast in the afternoon. A slight chance of rain in the afternoon. High 60. Wind south around 5 mph. Chance of precipitation less than 20 percent. Precipitation mostly less than a tenth of an inch. Monday night: Dense overcast. A chance of rain. Low 50. Wind west-northwest near calm in the evening, becoming north after midnight. Chance of precipitation 30 percent. Precipitation mostly less than a tenth of an inch. Tuesday: Cloudy in the morning, becoming dense overcast in the afternoon. A chance of rain. High 55. Wind north around 4 mph. Chance of precipitation 50 percent. Precipitation mostly less than a quarter of an inch. Tuesday night: Cloudy. A slight chance of rain. Low 51. Wind east-northeast around 3 mph. Chance of precipitation less than 20 percent. Precipitation mostly less than a tenth of an inch. Wednesday: Mostly cloudy to cloudy in the morning, becoming partly cloudy in the afternoon. Mild. High 68. Wind southeast around 4 mph. Wednesday night: Fair in the evening, becoming partly to mostly cloudy after midnight. Low 49. Wind south-southeast around 4 mph. Thursday: Mostly cloudy to cloudy in the morning, becoming cloudy in the afternoon. High 65. Wind south-southwest around 5 mph. Thursday night: Cloudy. Low 52. Wind south-southwest around 5 mph. Friday: Cloudy. Mild. High 66. Wind south-southwest around 5 mph. Friday night: Cloudy. Low 52. Wind south-southwest around 5 mph.

Another .07" of rain overnight - storm total 1.35" in East Nantmeal Twp in Chester County PA

Hey guys, I thought I would start a unique topic (to not take up space in regular obs for those not interested) with some weather factoids related to the philly burbs of Western Chester County PA. Let me know if you have any questions or any analysis you would like to see run with this data set outside of the PHL airport heat island obs. To start off - based on a couple messages on the relationship... if any of following snow seasons to below normal September and October pairings. I did a bit of analysis in the database. With the 1st 10 days of October 2020 averaging over a degree below normal and September 2020 finishing with a below average temperature....if the longer range models are accurate we may indeed have our 1st back to back below normal such months since September/October 2009....that season we finished with 86.6" of snow here in the philly burbs of Western Chester County. Now before you snow weenies get all excited....that was the greatest seasonal snow following below normal Sept/Oct pairings in the local data set analyzed since 1894. Of interest back to back below normal Sept/Oct months have only happened 30 times or 24% of the 127 years of Chester County records. The average Chester County PA snowfall is 35.6" -however, in years following below normal Sept/Oct pairings the average following seasonal snowfall has only averaged 29.2" or 18% below normal. Ranges go from the 1972-73 season when....for the only time in Chester County PA history no measurable seasonal snowfall occurred to the aforementioned 86.6" in the winter of 2009/10. Bad news for snow lovers...70% or 21 of those following winters experienced below normal (35.6") snowfall. In future posts we will look at below normal Sept/Oct/Nov and below normal 3 month averages to the following snow seasons.....maybe there will be hope there.... "Some are weather wise and some are otherwise" Ben Franklin

Still no 30's this year in Western Chester County PA at 685 ft ASL(44.4 this AM)....however down at lake level on Marsh Creek just a couple miles south of here = yet another low in the 30's (36.4) at around 400 ft

Another beautiful fall day across the region with our 6th below normal day of the 8 days so far here in October with highs today in East Nantmeal Twp. in Western Chester County PA of 62.6 and 68.2 down in Sea Isle City NJ along the beaches of South Jersey.

This AM low was 49.5

A new weather tidbit for Western Chester County PA...thanks for all of the emails!! I will try to share more of these unique Western Chester County PA stats more often - also thanks for the feedback on the website http://www.chescowx.com !! I am in the process of upgrading it's appearance and functionality....but my full time job gets in the way of getting this done more quickly. No doubt these updates should help make it more phone friendly... as I know this is a current shortcoming of the current site. Some interesting analysis regarding Octobers by decade below Looking at Octobers by decade since the 1890's - 3 of the last 5 decades are the coldest October decades on record the top 5 coldest are below: 1970's (52.5) / 1980's (52.6) / 1960's (53.3) / 1920's (53.3) / 1990's (53.4) Of the top 5 warmest October decades - 4 of those decades occurred before 1960 1910's (56.7) / 1940's (55.4) / 2010's (55.3) / 1900's (54.9) / 1950's (54.4)

While today's splits both in Western Chester County (60.1/45.1) and down the shore in Sea Isle City NJ (67.5/49.1) were well below normal they were nowhere near as chilly as today just 5 years ago back in 2015...when we stayed in the 40's all day in Chesco with a high of only 49.4 and 0.40" of rain.

Some October climate stats for Western Chester County PA of note since 2010 the month has averaged only 1.3 degrees above the 54.0 degree monthly average. Additionally, 2 of the last 10 Octobers (2011 and 2015) have actually averaged below normal temperatures....while 9 of the last 20 have featured below normal temperatures. Some OCT Climate facts & figures for Western Chester County PA: Highest temp - 94 (10/6/1900 and 10/5/1941) Lowest temp - 17 (10/28/1936) Highest min temp - 73 (10/5/1898) Lowest max temp - 35 (10/30/1925) Average October Temperature - 1894 to 1983 - 54.2 degrees Average October Temperature - 1983 thru 2019 - 54.0 degrees Average date of the 1st Freeze of the HDD season: 1894 to 1982 - 10/14 Since 1983 - 10/23 Earliest Freeze - September 20, 1956 Latest Freeze - November 12, 2005

Beautiful October morning both in Chester County PA and down the shore in Sea Isle City NJ - AM Lows 45.1 in Chesco and 49.1 in SIC

0.16" of rain overnight

Nice autumnal day both here in Western Chester County PA and down the shore in Sea Isle City NJ. quite a bit milder with folks even on the beaches down in Cape May County today.

Here in Western Chester County PA - We finished September with our 1st below normal month temperature wise since the back to back below normal months of April and May 2020. It is also our 1st below normal September since September 2014.