ChescoWx

My Wxsim program is painting up to 2.50" of rain falling across East Nantmeal Township by Saturday AM. By later today we will be setting a new all-time Chester County PA record for wettest year - eclipsing the 75.12" that fell in 1996. We currently stand at 74.94". Also keeping an eye on 3 potential winter events between now and New Years Eve. The 1st 2 will be weak but may be just enough to give spots a White Christmas north of the mason dixon line. The third one will near New Years Eve has a chance to be a bit more significant....but plenty of time for that to change. Thinking we end up slightly above normal for December temps and below normal snowfall (4.7") however season to date we will still be above average as we already have received 7.3" of snow while normal through the end of December is only 6.0". Still liking below normal (29.9) temps in January and above normal (10.7") snowfall including at least 1 major snowstorm >10".

EPS weeklies are heading toward a pretty classic Dec/Jan/Feb El Nino/ neg EPO/AO 500 mb pattern - still liking my colder and snowier winter than normal....of course this hobby is far from an exact science so stay tuned for adjustments!!

Mighty windy night which kept temps up only a low of 33.0 in East Nantmeal - have not fallen below freezing since the 13th - Average highs so far this month are 1.6 below normal while nighttime lows are 1.7 above normal for a overall departure of +0.1 above average. We will fall below freezing this evening and may have our 1st below normal day today in the last 6 days.

Chilly rain continues might see a few flakes mixed in later this evening temp currently down to 37.5. Rain event total since Friday now up to 1.39" - which brings our YTD precip total up to 74.83" now just 0.29" from breaking the old mark of 75.12" set back in 1996.

Hey Steve...to clarify I am saying "significant cold" and storms and rumors of storms by week 2 of the New Year....but of course can a storm pop up like it did at Christmas of my analog year of 2002/03....absolutely - folks forget this time of the year it can be near or slightly above normal and still squeeze in a snowstorm with a nice track to the benchmark!

The higher spots of NW Chesco were just NAMmed with the 12z run with 2-3" of snow by 8pm this evening across the higher spots in the county...

Just to be clear I am not saying a big cold or snows before the end of the year....but some below some above and biased a bit colder than normal. This reminds me so much of folks back in 2014 telling me that they saw no signs of winter coming....but with the warm PDO with a Neg EPO to follow combined with the strat warming event all coming together - I just don't see how we don't see some significant cold and storminess by that 2nd week of the New Year. Of course I could be wrong (am I am an amateur hobbyist) but to me all the signs are pointing to cold coming or as JB would always say it is delayed but not denied!

Over an inch of rain with our storm (exact number in the Coco bucket TBD when I get back home later today) Latest Euro even shows a small snow accumulation over NW Chesco by this evening....not so sure that happens but I would not be surprised to see some mangled flakage mixing in later Current Temp 39 in East Nantmeal and a windy 46 here in Sea Isle City NJ

Gotta like the trend on the EURO....it has as expected started to move toward a colder solution for the last week of the year...

Hey Steve, while maybe not a winter of yore - I do see quite the wintry stretch coming up - I expect we will see a lot of the modeling catching on by right around Christmas time - it will then start to show a cold pattern setting in by about the 7th or 8th of January and continuing through much of February. As you know I like some analog years especially those with the expected late December stratwarm events over the pole - so I am riding 2002/03 as my heaviest weighted analog followed by 2014/15 with a little bit of 65/66. Those 3 get me to my slightly snowier year than last year when we had 55.5" of snow - heck 2002 even had a 60 show up on December 20th and we might have almost as warm a day toward that same date give or take a day next week. We even managed a Christmas day rain to snow event with 6" falling - the back and forth in temps then continued until winter really set in around the 11th - so with a little quicker evolution in my forecast we should be well positioned for some strong cold along with several storm chances by mid-January. Keep the faith my friends - if you like winter it is coming!!

0.28" of rain since last evening with 0.15" since midnight. Up to 0.82" for the month which is 1.30" below normal. YTD now up to 73.72" only 1.40" away from becoming the wettest year on record. Also now 2.3" below normal for snow for December but with the 7.3" of snow in November we are still 3.6" above normal for the season. Keeping an eye on some possible frozen precip mixing in out this way toward tomorrow evening

For those of you that closely watch the weather and trends.....if you are a winter weather enthusiast and do not see what it clearly in our future for January and February...well I just don't get it. I clearly see an above normal snowfall winter with at least one major Noreaster in the offing. Now if you are like my wife...and most folks they will not be liking the upcoming winter season

Some light rain now falling in NW Chesco temp 45.8 following our high today of 46.9

With up to a couple inches of rain for some spots we may eclipse the all-time wettest years at some spots like mine in NW Chester County PA. Also if the 12z NAM is to be believed 850's fall below 0c by Sunday eve....marginal surface temps but might support a small slushy accumulations at some higher spots like NW Chesco/Berks etc.....just something to keep an eye on... Currently cloudy and fog temp 44.5

Dense fog this AM. Current WXSIM forecast for NW Chesco has 2.21" of rain - if this occurs this will become the wettest year since coop records began in 1894 - we are only 1.68" away....if it's gonna be this wet we might as well set a new record! Wxsim also shows some mixing with snow Sunday night

Of note today is the 11th straight day without measurable precipitation. This is the longest dry stretch in 2018 and the longest dry period in over 14 months since the 15 straight dry days we experienced here in Chester County Pa from 9/20/17 thru 10/4/17

JB at Weatherbell now liking the little event this Thursday with a good chance the snow will carry to the coast with more than NWS offices are now thinking (my P&C has 20% chance) - while not a big event maybe a little whitening

The weeklies both camps have struggled mightily....I remain confident we are in for a cold Jan-Feb period - of course relaxation and warmth between cold - but the cold will never be too far behind - even our brief warm up this weekend will not last as long as thought a couple weeks back. Keep the faith!

Hi Zen I think chances are closer to 50% - our normal snowfall is 35.9" - I think we have a well above normal snow year this year with near 60" of snow...now if that happens we only need to be slightly above average at 40" next season to seal the deal. Either way climate change has certainly worked to increase snowfall. The beauty of climate change is - it remains the answer for all weather situations!! Kind of interesting that exactly 100 years apart we have the snowiest back to back decades -makes you wonder if weather is kind of cyclical?

So far this decade Chester County PA is averaging 45.0" of snow each season. If we keep this pace over the remaining 2 winter seasons left in this decade we will finish as the snowiest decade since NWS Coop record keeping began in the 1890's. Below are the 13 decades ranked from greatest to least. 1) 2010-2020: 45.0" (partial) 2) 1900-1910: 44.9" 3) 1910-1920: 39.0" 4) 2000-2010: 37.9" 5) 1894-1900: 34.2" (partial) 6) 1920-1930: 33.3" 7) 1980-1990: 33.0" 8) 1960-1970: 31.7” 9) 1990-2000: 31.5” 10) 1950-1960: 25.4” 11) 1930-1940: 24.4” 12)1970-80: 21.7” 13) 1940-1950: 21.6”

0.54" of rain since yesterday brings us up to 73.44" for the year only 1.68" from our wettest year since coop records began in 1894!!

Another chilly stat to add to this November as it appears we will finish November with an average daily max of just 47.1 - this will be tied for 2nd coldest daily average max temperature in my 125 year data set tied with November 1996 (interesting) and behind only the 44.4 average max experienced back in 1936 - overall this November will finish 27th coldest out of the last 125 Novembers.

I am sharing my latest article for the Sweetwater Reported here in East Nantmeal Township - I will grade myself at the end of the season! Hello again from Paul at the East Nantmeal PA Weather Station (www.chescowx.com). Be sure to follow me on twitter at Twitter as I am tweeting multiple daily climate reports, forecast updates and weather and drone photos of our beautiful Township. When I wrote my last article, we were nearing the end of what had been a very wet summer season, unfortunately September continued this trend with over 1” of rain falling on 4 days of the month. Overall, we ended September with 8.71” this was the 6th wettest September dating back to 1894 and the wettest since the 10.97” that fell in 2003. The all-time wettest September was the 14.48” that fell back in 1999 much of that due to the rain from Hurricane Floyd. Temperature wise it was also the 15th warmest September in our history with an average temperature of 68.2 or 3.3 above normal. October was a much calmer and finally a drier month ending a streak of 5 consecutive above normal rain months dating back to May. During October only 3.08” fell which is 1.32” below normal. Temperature wise it was a little (+1.8) degrees above normal. While there was a couple morning that we approached freezing with the lowest reading the 34.3 on the 25th we did not experience anything other than some scattered frost. November began very warm with the 1st eight days of the month averaging almost 5 degrees above normal. However, a strong cold front moving through on the 9th resulted in 17 of the next 20 days averaging below normal. This included our first freeze of the fall season on November 10th. This ended the East Nantmeal growing season after 203 days (last freeze was April 21st). Our normal growing season is 188 days. The longest growing season was the 233 days back in 2005, while the shortest was only 119 days back in 1956. Overall through the 28th we are averaging around 3 degrees below normal for temperatures. In addition to the cold we also experience our first snowfall of the season and a significant early season event at that. The 7.3” that fell on the 15th and 16th was the 3rd largest November snowstorm in Chester County history surpassed only by the 9.5” that fell on November 11, 1906 and the 8.6” that fell on November 6, 1953. We will also finish November as the 6th snowiest in our history. So, what does this early winter weather portend for our upcoming winter? To level set folks here in NW Chester County we average 36.7 inches of snow in a typical winter season. My 2017/18 winter forecast from last year was fairly close regarding temperatures but missed badly on how warm (+7.2 degrees) February 2018 actually was. My snow forecast of 50” was a little low, as we ended up with 58.5” of snow with much more (30.6”) falling in March than I had forecasted (7”). One added note this decade is now on pace to potentially be the snowiest decade in Chester County history with an average seasonal snowfall since 2010 of 44.1" this trails only the 1900-1909 decade which averaged 44.9" Below is my Winter Forecast for East Nantmeal Township with average temperature and snowfall estimates by month. To summarize regarding temperatures. I see a slightly below normal December due to a cold and relatively snowy first 15 days of the month (watch for snow in the 12/5-10 timeframe). I then see a warm up before Christmas but turning colder again by New Year’s Eve – so no White Christmas this year. We generally have a 25% chance of a White Christmas with our last being in 2012. I expect a below normal and snowy January followed by a near normal but snowy February, an above normal March and a normal April. Regarding snowfall I am forecasting around 63” of snowfall this winter season or about 26” above our seasonal average. · December 2018 – Avg. Temperature 34.0 degrees (0.5) below normal with Snowfall of 9” which is 4” above normal · January 2019 – Avg. Temperature 28.0 degrees (1.9) below normal with Snowfall of 20” or +9” above normal · February 2019 – Avg. Temperature 33.0 degrees +0.7 above normal with Snowfall of 18” or +6” above normal · March 2019 – Avg. Temperature 42.5 +2.2 above normal with Snowfall of 6” or near normal · April 2019 – Avg. Temperature 51.0 (0.2) below normal with Snowfall of 1” or near normal I hope all of you have a great Christmas, Hanukkah and Holiday Season! If you have any questions, please visit my website, follow me on twitter and send me an email. Until next time –All the best! Paul “Some are weather-wise, some are otherwise” Ben Franklin

Agreed! Hey I notice in your winter stats you have snow and sleet separate...any reason for that? They should be combined as total snow correct?

Hey Steve to my eyes the period from the 5th to 12th looks mighty interesting....stay tuned