ChescoWx

JB still thinks the snow stays together better right to the coast and north a bit. He thinks 3" to 6" from MDT to ACY with 4" to 8" south of there through DCA

Easy moderate snow for only 1 or 2 hours and light snow the rest of the time -

Latest Wxsim program continues to show a light snow event for the NW Chester County PA area of East Nantmeal Township. Currently it looks like light snow arrives by 6pm on Sat eve. with moderate snow by midnight with it all over by 9am Sunday morning with between 1.5" to 2.0" of snow

Steve that's a good list - for me my interest is high for anything over 4" which in this area I consider "plowable" Anything over 6" is Significant Over 10" is Major But any snow is good snow to track in my opinion....

Euro Kuchera get the 2" line up to Central Chester County PA....

JB holding to the end - as always his North bias is a weakness which I think he knows he has but can't help it As far as the storm, no changes, as always I wait for it to get into the plains to change ideas as I see too many of these go all over the place and if I am to bust, would rather just bust once. But the explanation on this a couple of days ago with the northern snow coming out still looks good to me, That tends to hold together with 20 to 30 to 1 ratio near -8C While its going to be a nice storm from St Louis to the Delmarva ( I think) the real value of it to me is it is a sign of the times.. and that time is for it get cold and stay cold with repetitive snow threats evolving along with stronger cold shots

To provide hope to snow weenies everywhere here is JB at WB's latest thoughts....He is correct about the false idol that is the GFS at 4 days out - happens all the time...not saying I agree with him - but if the Euro goes south at 12z then there should be concern The GFS is likely getting into its handoff to quick to the northern branch mode it likes to get into 4 days out, So we see it collapsing heights over the lakes and Ohio Valley at 84 hours.) or handing off to the northern branch) This looks to be an error to me, but perhaps this is the time it is right, But there are no changes in my thinking right now I think the Euro/NAM blend will be the best way to proceed going forward and there is no change in our ideas on the storm this weekend, I don't think this is a big deal for NYC ( 2-4) and think its 4-8 around DC for instance. Quite frankly this map shows what I think is coming, more or less, Euro 72 hour snow totals ending Monday morning There are some edge considerations but I dont expect a shift north to the experimental GFS at 06z But I dont think there is that much suppression either

12z models so far....going wrong direction unless you buy the Para...will wait for King Euro before concern - however a very sharp N to S gradient - best spots SJ and DE

Early thoughts - I am liking the Euro and suspect some of the 12z runs come north a bit. So early call is 3" to 5" from Southern Chester County across to ACY - with 2" to 4" from N to S from I76 north toward ABE

no way - keep an eye on this - nice changes on the 12z NAM....for the 1st time in a long time the right ingredients are present....now will it deliver?? who knows but certainly no time to stop watching till at least 0z on the 10th IMHO

DT such a calm guy! He banned me from following him on Twitter due to my political leanings.....nice

A mix of light IP and snow has just started in East Nantmeal temp 31.0 DP 15.5

My Wxsim with 6z data has snow arriving Saturday eve continuing through much of Sunday with 9" to 12" of snow accumulating in NW Chesco....this will of course change

Nah - multiple snow chances and increasing cold on most modeling today....to your point nothing definative and of course it never is with weather - but no change to my views on the coming cold and snow!

JB with Weatherbell saying all the players are now on the field that may lead to one of the all-time greatest comeback winters.....now whether that is reality or not.....like I said stay tuned

With our 0.16" of rain since midnight and 0.42" since yesterday we are for a rarity....below normal rainfall for the month and YTD at only 0.44" vs our normal here in Chester County of 0.53". Of greater interest to the winter weather weenies on our forum is the fact that for the 1st time this winter season we are below normal for snowfall. Through today here in NW Chester County PA we are at 7.3" of snow for the season with a normal of 7.5" through today.

0.29" of rain since last evening here in East Nantmeal

Steve - so far it has been a great off season IMHO - they have significantly upgraded at 3 of the 8 positions and a big addition to the Bullpen. LF with McCutchen; SS with Segura; 1B with Hoskins and Robertson for the back end of the pen. Now even without any other signings I believe they are now an above .500 team for the 1st time since the glory years of 2007-12. Regarding the big signings....I mean what Philly team has ever committed to spending "stupid money" to make the team better than the Phils? I have never believed they would sign either Harper or Machado....but that is certainly no fault of the Phillies. They will overpay with offers for both players....but may lose out as it has nothing to do with the Phillies willingness to spend and improve the team. If Machado wants to be a Yankee and Harper a Dodger they will not get either player...no matter how much they overpay Now some philly fans that don't understand the dynamic of baseball may say the Phils failed....and that will be the vast majority of the Philly sports fan view. I like many will be disappointed that they do not sign either one of these players....but I will not fault the Phils. They are doing all they can to get better....an I think they will be better in 2019 either way. Keep the faith!!

Justin, as you know I am not a subscriber to climate change hysteria....until we have at least 500 years of accurate data I won't bite....by then both of us will be long gone. That said I do believe in climate patterns and cycles....we have had an incredibly snowy period during the last 20 years....we will for sure revert to lower than normal and folks that prescribe to climate change will attribute the lack of snow or even no snow in a winter season which I think we see in the next 10 years to climate change. As my favorite original weather weeny Ben Franklin said - folks will always say weather is changing and it was colder when I was younger....heck my Dad always says there was always snow on the ground in the 40's and 50's...but the facts do not support that.....I am all about the facts and only thermometers outside of heat island's like PHL. All that said while not a winter of yore....I remain confident we see some significant winter events before the Phillies start their season!!

Hey Steve....nervous for sure as no one but God knows what lies ahead but I have not wavered on the cold and storms and rumors of storms ahead....my original take on the cold by the 8th is in trouble as I think the real cold does not lock in for at least another 12 days. However, as I keep saying we do not need below normal temps to snow in this area in January. So while I see some of the EURO runs showing a storm in about 10 days it is far from a lock - especially the solution the folks in the NY/Long Island area are hugging. It will need to be watched as a winter event is on the table....either way I remain confident of some strong cold in our future in the late January through Mid-February timeframe. This is often the timeframe that results in some of the "winter of yore" talk we have discussed. Some very interesting times ahead IMHO.....stay tuned!

I would prefer a World Series if I can bargain??

Certainly looking more delayed but will it be denied??? That is a classic JB response. My winter temp forecast is certainly in a bit of trouble - but in this area it only takes a couple big events to get us to above normal snow and I remain confident one of these noreasters will thread the needle and/or tap into some of the colder air north of the border as even above normal temps in Mid Jan to Mid Feb can deliver a snow event or 2....

If you have them for your location post them here! In Chester County PA we finished with an average temperature of 53.4 degrees this was our 32nd warmest year in the 125 year Coop data set. However, it also marked a cooling trend with our 3rd straight year with lower temps than the previous year. As we all know it was the wettest year on record for the County with 79.12" of precipitation recorded which is 30.24" above our normal melted equivalent precipitation of 48.97". This broke the old annual record of 75.12" set back in 1996. Snow wise for the year we ended with 54.1" of snow...our 16th snowiest year behind the snowiest year with 82.1" recorded back in 1899. For the snow season of 2017/18 we finished with 56.0" of snow thanks to our snowiest March on record when 30.6" fell - that 56.0" seasonal snow was good for the 14th snowiest season...with the all-time snow season being the 95.0" that fell in 1898/99. We experienced 4 days that exceeded the 90 degree mark our normal 90+ days are 5 during a typical summer season. The coldest reading was the 0.8 degrees above zero on January 7th.

Again folks nothing has swayed my view of a very interesting winter weather season....for those that like winter weather. I have seen a few posts this week about how bad December was for snow....but of course as most of us know. In this area snow before January is just a bonus. Our peak time is from Mid Jan thru February....all signs are still positive......but if you are a Negadelphian.....I can't help you. However, the best news is the greatest sport has spring training starting next month....so keep the faith!!! Go Phils!!!

Flakeage in NW Chesco 33 degrees