ChescoWx

Latest HRRR for this PM tries to bring a couple inches to some....

For those anxiously awaiting the WXSIM snow forecasts for EN....the wait is over! WXSIM now mixes the GFS EURO and NAM to make it's forecast. WXSIM text forecast for East Nantmeal, initialized at 9:00 AM Jan 3, 2025 _______________________________________________________________________________ Today: Partly to mostly cloudy in the morning, becoming mostly cloudy to cloudy in the afternoon. High 34. Wind chill around 26. Wind west around 5 mph. Tonight: Mostly cloudy in the evening, becoming fair to partly cloudy after midnight. A chance of snow. Low 25. Wind chill ranging from 16 to 27. Wind west-northwest around 5 mph in the evening, becoming 9 mph, gusting to 17 mph, after midnight. Chance of precipitation 30 percent. Precipitation (liquid equivalent) mostly less than a tenth of an inch. Snow accumulation about a quarter inch. Monday: Dense overcast. Patchy light fog in the afternoon. Snow likely. High 29. Wind northwest around 3 mph in the morning, becoming northeast in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation 70 percent. Precipitation (liquid equivalent) mostly around a quarter of an inch. Snow accumulation 2 to 3 inches. Monday night: Cloudy in the evening, becoming mostly cloudy after midnight, with areas of light frost likely. Patchy light fog in the evening. Snow likely. Low 25. Wind chill ranging from 15 to 20. Wind north around 8 mph, gusting to 17 mph, in the evening, becoming 12 mph, gusting to 22 mph, after midnight. Chance of precipitation 70 percent. Precipitation (liquid equivalent) mostly around a quarter of an inch. Snow accumulation around 2 inches.

Light snow should arrive from west to east across Chester and Berks counties during the 2pm hour this afternoon. The timing is not great as the steadiest snow will fall during rush hour. There should be at most an inch or so over the area. We turn colder this weekend with temperatures remaining below freezing for at least the next week. The next winter event looks like it will arrive overnight Sunday into Monday morning. Most of the ensemble models keep the more significant snow south of the Mason Dixon Line. That said most areas will see at least a couple inches with more as you go south in Chester County toward Maryland.

Light snow should arrive from west to east across Chester and Berks counties during the 2pm hour this afternoon. The timing is not great as the steadiest snow will fall during rush hour. There should be at most an inch or so over the area. We turn colder this weekend with temperatures remaining below freezing for at least the next week. The next winter event looks like it will arrive overnight Sunday into Monday morning. Most of the ensemble models keep the more significant snow south of the Mason Dixon Line. That said most areas will see at least a couple inches with more as you go south in Chester County toward Maryland.

Agreed Steve I suspect from the PA Turnpike south to MD border is a solid 2" to 4" with an inch or 2 up to the ABE area. But a sharp cutoff to the northeast of there...

The 12km NAM at the end of it's range looks to be a bit further north with it's model snow....

Welp at least the ICON is a bit further north....if we are looking for the snowier solutions.....the trend on the ensembles is telling IMHO

Canadian with a move south with heaviest totals from 12z and sharper cutoff to the NE than earlier run

Tomorrow night's event - this is only out to 10pm tomorrow

There is no right or wrong but in most situations I have found the K method is usually at least an improvement over 10:1

I do think with colder storms the Kutchera does a better job with the ratios but it is not available on the ensemble runs....the ensemble did move a bit north again from the 12z run

Double digits for NW Chesco......if you choose to believe in model snow!!

It was February 13th 10.5" at East Nantmeal / 9.3" West Caln and up in Berks County at Huff's Church 9.4"

The HRRR radar depicts the snow starting by 2pm across Chesco with the heaviest (see below) at about 5pm.....not a great scenario for rush hour travel if this comes to pass!

The NWS just issued a Winter Weather Advisory for tomorrow from 3pm till 10pm see below ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM TO 10 PM EST FRIDAY... * WHAT...Snow expected. Total snow accumulations of one to two inches. * WHERE...Portions of central and northern Delaware, the eastern shores of Maryland, southern New Jersey, and southeast Pennsylvania. * WHEN...From 3 PM to 10 PM EST Friday. * IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous conditions could impact the Friday evening commute.

Since 2020 below are the biggest snow events Jan 31 - Feb 2, 2021 - 16.6" East Nantmeal / 13.5" East Vincent / 12.2" East Coventry Feb 13, 2024 - East Nantmeal 10.5" / West Caln 9.3" / Warwick Park 8.0" Feb 7, 2021 - 8.8" East Nantmeal / 8.3" Elverson / 6.0" Exton Dec 17, 2020 - 9.6" Elverson / 9.3" East Nantmeal / 8.2" East Vincent

Feb 13th last year 10.5" of snow - winter storm warning with that one for Chesco

12z runs

Today, while still below normal temperatures will be our warmest day for quite a while. Tomorrow we will be a bit chillier than today, and we will likely see our last above freezing temperatures for about 10 days. Some light snow is possible by tomorrow evening with a coating to an inch in spots. Cold and dry for the weekend before our snow chances increase on Sunday evening into Monday.

Today, while still below normal temperatures will be our warmest day for quite a while. Tomorrow we will be a bit chillier than today, and we will likely see our last above freezing temperatures for about 10 days. Some light snow is possible by tomorrow evening with a coating to an inch in spots. Cold and dry for the weekend before our snow chances increase on Sunday evening into Monday.

The climate summary for Chester County PA finds that 2024 was our warmest year since way back in 1913! Overall, this was the third warmest year since 1893 with an average annual temperature of 55.15 degrees. The warmest years here in Chester County were way back in 1931 (warmest) with an average temperature of 55.73 degrees followed closely by that equally warm year even further back in time of 1913 at 55.18 degrees. Precipitation wise this was the 48th driest year with an average across all reporting stations of 39.57" of rain and melted snow equivalent but only 2.50" below our normal levels. Snowfall wise our 25.7" of snow were almost 10 inches below our normal snow of 35" here in Chester County. Below is the climate data for the 18 current NWS/MADIS and trained observer sites here in Chester County PA.

The climate summary for Chester County PA finds that 2024 was our warmest year since way back in 1913! Overall, this was the third warmest year since 1893 with an average annual temperature of 55.15 degrees. The warmest years here in Chester County were way back in 1931 (warmest) with an average temperature of 55.73 degrees followed closely by that equally warm year even further back in time of 1913 at 55.18 degrees. Precipitation wise this was the 48th driest year with an average across all reporting stations of 39.57" of rain and melted snow equivalent but only 2.50" below our normal levels. Snowfall wise our 25.7" of snow were almost 10 inches below our normal snow of 35" here in Chester County. Below is the climate data for the 18 current NWS/MADIS and trained observer sites here in Chester County PA.