Juliancolton

The 00z GFS would be a nice snowstorm for us. It dampened out the arctic trough a bit so we wouldn't be able to rely on that for a safe 1-3", but compensates by bringing the deep cyclone and associated ML dynamics closer. Albany notes the potential for average ratios as high as 25:1... I never count on ratios 2x better than climo, especially with the wind potential, but it wouldn't shock me to see periods of 30:1 around here at the height of the storm.

The floor is real low for this in the HV but I remain optimistic for something more significant. While this may be stating the obvious, I like the potential for a nice deform band on the far NW side. The 12z NAM shows a distinct CCB feature over our heads (see 700mb prog), and if you loop the frontogenesis product, you can see a thermal boundary with respectable UVVs pivoting just to our south and east for several hours on Thursday afternoon. The mesoscale models will pick up on these features better than the globals, but QPF will still tend to under-represent peripheral banding when the dynamics are so incredibly strong near the low center. Plus, temp and wind profiles are more conducive to snow growth here than in areas with more liquid, so the gradient may not be as sharp as depicted. It's a tough forecast. I think the odds of a total non-event and widespread 4-6"+ amounts are roughly equal around these parts.

"Yeah well the result may be the same but there was definitely an improvement at 275 mb over the Ukraine, watch that for 18z" -12 was my low, deep deep winter. The snow OTG is doing its job but I'm getting greedy - let's fatten up the pack this week and get me a -20F

0.8" today which gets me over the 1' mark YTD and just an inch shy of tying my snowiest December since 2010. Despite the torchy start and aspiring Grinch rainstorm on the 23rd, this has been a really nice winter month. I give it a solid A for lots of little snow events, persistent snowcover, deep cold the final week including multiple subzero lows, and the holy grail, Christmas Day snowfall. If January is as cold and snowy relative to normal as December was, strap in.

Yeah, this month has been deep winter pretty much everywhere east of the Rockies. I like when SFla feels the chill a little... it tends to settle down the old relatives that call every weekend in the winter and brag about how warm and wonderful it is down there.

The lows around here haven't been anything extraordinary with this cold snap. We need to lose another 10F at night for interesting phenomena like sea smoke, frost flowers, light pillars, etc. The consistently struggling daytime highs have been impressive however. My low this morning was -0.4 so I guess the 'official' subzero streak is already over.

Already down to 1F and in a state of total freefall until the wind picks up at some point tonight. The snow is making that squeaking noise underfoot, doesn't get much better. Gonna head to the river for sunrise in search of some nice sea smoke. Probably only a few days to see that before there's not enough open water left.

-3F currently. The first of many subzero mornings it would seem.

I hadn't heard that before, very cool. Thanks and merry Christmas! That last band packed quite a punch and I ended up with 3" even. Super pretty stuff for Christmas morning but like you say, the wind is already starting to knock it down from trees.

That's the spirit! It'll be just like the Christmas truce of 1914 except even more unlikely. My yard does pale in comparison to these guys just down the road from me but many strangers stop and say they like mine better simply on account of not being seizure inducing, lol

Nothing here yet, but still enjoyed a nice Christmas lights jebwalk around my yard to admire my work on the decorations this year. Up over 35,000 lights and managed to keep everything shipshape right up until the big day. Life is good

Albany apparently expects mixing even all the way up here with 1-2" storm total. Too much eggnog up at the office.

GFS is juicy tomorrow night... half an inch of liquid for most of us. Still looks like a relatively dense snowfall so shoot for 10:1 to 12:1, which nonetheless opens up the door to a 6" jackpot. Seems slightly overdone with how late the secondary low blossoms relative to our latitude. I envision most of us picking up a general 2-3" from late evening through the wee hours, then 1-2" in a short period when that modeled mesoscale band pivots through between 5 and 7 am. 3-5" seems good to me from a forecasting and personal preference standpoint.

I always miss out on the fun. Never got icy at my place.

Switching gears, I've just had a look at the Euro for Monday morning and it's definitely a nice solution. While it's hard to ascertain snow amounts without forecast soundings, the .2"-.3" of liquid would amount to a general 2-4" given climo ratios... surface suggests a pasty appeal though. If that pans out, it doesn't get much better. Folks walking up on Christmas morning to a fresh Currier and Ives blanket of snow, but not enough to cause any serious travel issues, with clearing skies by noon. Literal perfection.

Afaik, it's standard procedure (maybe even a legal requirement?) to keep sensitive archaeological sites under wraps until the relevant authorities have had a chance to poke around. It makes sense, would just be nice to actually get someone on the case.

There's a little bit about them in this older NYT article shortly after the initial discovery but the state still hasn't disclosed the exact coordinates or any real details about the apparent walls. Hopefully someone gets the funding and approval to take a closer look at some point... it's been over 15 years so I'm not holding my breath. Had some brief periods of sleet earlier but nothing now. Tomorrow looks like an all-day 34F rain, lovely

Just a few minutes off 84 in northern Putnam County. There are hundreds of these stone chambers in a relatively small area and it seems like a disproportionate amount (assuming they're just colonial root cellars) are aligned with the solstices and/or equinoxes. You probs know by now that I generally follow the mainstream ideas about most things but the alternate theories about ancient stonework in the mid-HV are hard to completely ignore... you could explain away most of it until you got to the 3,000+ y/o rock walls in the middle of the river floor off Storm King, then it gives pause

I was supposed to light regular candles? Ah crap, I misheard and lit some Roman candles. No wonder everyone gave me dirty looks...

A couple years back, some of us were talking about the stone chambers in the area and their supposed celestial alignments. I finally made it to the "Winter Solstice Chamber" in Kent this am and it was definitely an impressive sight with the sunlight perfectly streaming in through the doorway. I did sort of get caught off-guard by the pagan chanting and Druid peace rituals. For some reason, out of about 50 people there, I was the only one who couldn't feel any connection with the spirits.

Seems like decoupling has taken place. Down to 11

17/3 right now and that's still with a wind stirring things up. Should have no problem getting below zero for the first time this season.

Pretty confident, this one.

For some reason students and educators alike pay close attention to the twitter musings of Ben Noll, and last week he said there was a 60% of a snow day yesterday in the Hudson Valley. I don't know how he figures those odds but folks in town here were really counting on their day off. I can understand the kids being bummed out, but while I have great respect for the work that teachers do, I don't get why some seem to feel they're entitled to be spared a day's work because somebody said frozen water would fall from the sky.

Yeah, snow growth looks good. The whining from co-workers, parents, and drugstore clerks is really gonna start ramping up if we wake up to plowable tomorrow.