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Juliancolton

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Everything posted by Juliancolton

  1. Juliancolton
    It's 56 degrees! We all know it can't snow if it was warm the day before.
  2. Juliancolton
    That hi-res 3km run had some 60"+ totals on the upslope of the northern Catskills escarpment, like the Hunter to Haines Falls area. That would really be something to see.
  3. Juliancolton
    I'm counting the GFS as a "go", despite the ugly p-type algorithms. The mid levels are actually colder than the NAM and RGEM, but it torches the BL because of the bogus dewpoint depression. I won't be sitting at 39/34 when the rest of the column is saturated up to the tropopause and precip has been ongoing for 12 hours. The 00z guidance so far suggests to me that society is going to be woefully underprepared for winter storm impacts just over 24 hours from now.
  4. Juliancolton
    The NAM is a burial of unholy proportions for everyone here. We're all switched over to snow by 15z Friday (likely somewhat earlier), and then there's another 2"+ liquid. I think the odds of a significant snowfall are pretty good at this point, and the ceiling is so high you can't even see it.
  5. Juliancolton
    KPOU hasn't reported snow since the Great Data Gap™ of 1993-2000. If it's just for a school paper and not a rigorously scrutinized scientific undertaking, check out some of the co-op stations on xmACIS. IIRC, the Poughkeepsie co-op (POUN6 I wanna say?) has pretty solid looking snowfall records for the last 10 years or so, but before that it's hit-or-miss.
  6. Juliancolton
    34.7". I never know what to call my average, but I'd be just north of the weenie 55-60" spot at the far upper left part of this map. I wish I knew this guy's method for making these graphics... it seems sort of pointless to have that much resolution, but it sure is pretty to look at.
  7. Juliancolton
    Probably sooner than that, even. The back edge is drying out quickly as the models suggested.
  8. Juliancolton
    Back roads on the way home are covered. Yesterday I was cruising around with the ragtop down and today I'm in 4wd forging ahead through the mounting snow accumulations. Pretty epic
  9. Juliancolton
    Paste job commencing here in Poughkeepsie. Looks to be mod snow based on what I can't see in the distance.
  10. Juliancolton
    NAM is a sleetfest north of 84 tomorrow evening
  11. Juliancolton
    It occurred right around the flip to positive after holding near -2 the week before. Some of us could have used a smidgen more supression
  12. Juliancolton
    If Paul Kocin taught me anything, it's that big interior snowstorms happen at the tail end of -NAO episodes, not when the blocking is at its strongest. With any luck, it'll last long enough that the Mid-Atlantic cashes in during the crazy 5 sigma -NAO or whatever, then we get a system or two while the pattern breaks down.
  13. Juliancolton
    Yeah, lots of upper 70s out there. 76 at my house right now and still rising. My car thermo hit 80 on Route 7 in New Milford... surely a bit inflated but still insane to see in February.
  14. Juliancolton
    Still some chunks of leftover ice at Long Dock Park in Beacon as of this morning, but even over the course of an hour you could actually see them shrinking in the wind and soupy dews. Sort of reminded me of the Icelandic black sand beaches with the melting ice formations and dense fog. The warmth today should be really impressive. Still cloudy here, but satellite shows the low stratus quickly eroding away. It was only 45F at 9 am yesterday and I went to a high of 68... currently 58F.
  15. Juliancolton
    That's what I used to think about microspikes until I actually tried it, haha
  16. Juliancolton
    The Kubota sinks about half a foot into the mud when I drive around parts of my yard for preliminary cleanup. Yuck.
  17. Juliancolton
    I'm starting to grow fond of all the fog we've had this winter. It makes it so you can't see all the potholes you're about to hit... out of sight, out of mind.
  18. Juliancolton
    Don't forget the derechoes! 44F and slate grey out, epic epic torch.
  19. Juliancolton
    You know what they say about [insert state here]... if you don't like the weather, just wait a minute!
  20. Juliancolton
    We 1-3" on Thursday night
  21. Juliancolton
    4.6"/.43". Now my fourth 4"+ snowfall of the season so far... even 14-15 only had five.
  22. Juliancolton
    4" on the nose with some almost convective looking microbands en route
  23. Juliancolton
    Radar looks pretty wimpy for up this way.
  24. Juliancolton
    NAM is much more robust compared to 12z, so that's nice to see. Early risers FTW on Sunday morning since we're into the mid-40s under full sun by noon.
  25. Juliancolton
    Winter uncancel on 00z guidance so far.
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