Juliancolton

Yeah, I was gonna go for a sunrise hike out in Pawling or Patterson to see the deeper snow but chickened out when I saw/felt the wind chills. I can handle pretty much infinitely cold wx until the wind starts blowing, then all bets are off. I can't wait to see everyone jogging in shorts and tees if those 40s and 50s verify on D7.

8.3" and 10.5" reported 3 miles and 8 miles to my SE, respectively... 4.6" here.

Yeah, that's what I mean, it's a high-impact event despite mild expectations for most of the week. Roads up here have been a disaster too... seems like there are still thoroughfares that plows haven't touched but maybe it's just blowing back in faster than they can attack it.

My final assessment... this storm blew. More memorable for the winds and rapid onset than snow totals. Fine by me though – the forecast was for a non-event until very recently.

I got into it for about 15 minutes before my section of it collapsed east again. Agree though, a fun storm and certainly better than most of us would have bet on.

You should be ripping I would think? It's snowing pretty good here as little tertiary spokes of heavier echoes swing through but I think the main band is stalling just a few miles to my east.

So does that band make it this far west before pivoting?

House is already creaking in the strongest gusts. It never ceases to amaze me how quickly winds respond to a bombing low hundreds of miles away.

It's been a while since we've seen weenie Euro maps like this. Brings me back to Feb '15 when it would print out like -40F.

I've been out and about. Did the models crap out on us?

Here's the concern if the low gets tucked in like the 3km NAM shows and we end up in the sucker hole of subsidence from the main banding as it peaks to our SE. Positive omega through a shallow DGZ. It's obviously still snowing and possibly quite prodigiously, but no comically high ratios to raise the event ceiling indefinitely.

The 00z GFS would be a nice snowstorm for us. It dampened out the arctic trough a bit so we wouldn't be able to rely on that for a safe 1-3", but compensates by bringing the deep cyclone and associated ML dynamics closer. Albany notes the potential for average ratios as high as 25:1... I never count on ratios 2x better than climo, especially with the wind potential, but it wouldn't shock me to see periods of 30:1 around here at the height of the storm.

The floor is real low for this in the HV but I remain optimistic for something more significant. While this may be stating the obvious, I like the potential for a nice deform band on the far NW side. The 12z NAM shows a distinct CCB feature over our heads (see 700mb prog), and if you loop the frontogenesis product, you can see a thermal boundary with respectable UVVs pivoting just to our south and east for several hours on Thursday afternoon. The mesoscale models will pick up on these features better than the globals, but QPF will still tend to under-represent peripheral banding when the dynamics are so incredibly strong near the low center. Plus, temp and wind profiles are more conducive to snow growth here than in areas with more liquid, so the gradient may not be as sharp as depicted. It's a tough forecast. I think the odds of a total non-event and widespread 4-6"+ amounts are roughly equal around these parts.

"Yeah well the result may be the same but there was definitely an improvement at 275 mb over the Ukraine, watch that for 18z" -12 was my low, deep deep winter. The snow OTG is doing its job but I'm getting greedy - let's fatten up the pack this week and get me a -20F

0.8" today which gets me over the 1' mark YTD and just an inch shy of tying my snowiest December since 2010. Despite the torchy start and aspiring Grinch rainstorm on the 23rd, this has been a really nice winter month. I give it a solid A for lots of little snow events, persistent snowcover, deep cold the final week including multiple subzero lows, and the holy grail, Christmas Day snowfall. If January is as cold and snowy relative to normal as December was, strap in.

Yeah, this month has been deep winter pretty much everywhere east of the Rockies. I like when SFla feels the chill a little... it tends to settle down the old relatives that call every weekend in the winter and brag about how warm and wonderful it is down there.

The lows around here haven't been anything extraordinary with this cold snap. We need to lose another 10F at night for interesting phenomena like sea smoke, frost flowers, light pillars, etc. The consistently struggling daytime highs have been impressive however. My low this morning was -0.4 so I guess the 'official' subzero streak is already over.

Already down to 1F and in a state of total freefall until the wind picks up at some point tonight. The snow is making that squeaking noise underfoot, doesn't get much better. Gonna head to the river for sunrise in search of some nice sea smoke. Probably only a few days to see that before there's not enough open water left.

-3F currently. The first of many subzero mornings it would seem.

I hadn't heard that before, very cool. Thanks and merry Christmas! That last band packed quite a punch and I ended up with 3" even. Super pretty stuff for Christmas morning but like you say, the wind is already starting to knock it down from trees.

That's the spirit! It'll be just like the Christmas truce of 1914 except even more unlikely. My yard does pale in comparison to these guys just down the road from me but many strangers stop and say they like mine better simply on account of not being seizure inducing, lol

Nothing here yet, but still enjoyed a nice Christmas lights jebwalk around my yard to admire my work on the decorations this year. Up over 35,000 lights and managed to keep everything shipshape right up until the big day. Life is good

Albany apparently expects mixing even all the way up here with 1-2" storm total. Too much eggnog up at the office.

GFS is juicy tomorrow night... half an inch of liquid for most of us. Still looks like a relatively dense snowfall so shoot for 10:1 to 12:1, which nonetheless opens up the door to a 6" jackpot. Seems slightly overdone with how late the secondary low blossoms relative to our latitude. I envision most of us picking up a general 2-3" from late evening through the wee hours, then 1-2" in a short period when that modeled mesoscale band pivots through between 5 and 7 am. 3-5" seems good to me from a forecasting and personal preference standpoint.

I always miss out on the fun. Never got icy at my place.