snowfan
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Everything posted by snowfan
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3K NAM appears to have a slightly better orientation of the precip across the area. Thru 21Z Wed, there's .6 QPF for DC and the column is still supporting sleet with the warm layer surging NE at 800-700. By 0Z Wed, DC is still barely holding onto the surface with precip totals approaching .9". Bmore over 1" by then.
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This is the outcome that I'm thinking is becoming more likely. We get a 1-3, maybe 2-4" front end snow, then we tack on a lot of sleet and wrapped it up with drizzle, freezing drizzle.
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NAM throws the snow maxima well into the Ohio Valley and PA. Our area sees a general 2-4" snowfall before going to ice. Still icing at 0Z Wed at which time our total QPF is .75-1" for the 95 corridor. More N/W.
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9Z Wed.....18Z NAM has precip field expanding to the SW as it approaches DC. Snow has overspread the area at 12Z.
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Geesh....FV3 has 1.6" QPF for DC for the event. Some areas N and W in excess of 2".
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By 18Z Wed, FV3 has heavy sleet.....maybe heavily rimed snow.....in the metro area. Heavy snow from BWI north and northeast. By 0Z, the steady precip is moving out as most of us lose the column. FV3 has a 3-5" snowfall for DC and the immediate area with much more along the 70 corridor and further E/NE from Baltimore/BWI.
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Fav beer for the last 4-5 years has been Weihenstephaner Vitus. Another excellent brew is Lexington Brewing Co. Kentucky Bourbon Barrel Ale.
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GFS basically discounts icing as a concern in the metro area, but we know it's struggles w/CAD. As for snow, it's a general 3-6" snowfall with more in higher spots south and southwest.
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By 0Z Wed, DC and Bmore lose the entire column. At that point, there's an inch of precip for BWI and 1.25" for DC.
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By 18Z Wed, the GFS has DC barely holding onto the column. Probs some heavy riming. You can see the affect of the heavier precip south of DC.....the column is cooler south of DC near Fredericksburg.....heavy snow.
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Thru the end of it's run, 3k NAM has a general .8-1" QPF for the 95 corridor. More N/W.
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3K comes in hot/heavy like others posted. A general 3-5" snow for the area before the flip. DC loses 700mb by 18Z, but areas further north last longer. By 0Z, the surface is sitting at 31 for DC, but the column torches 900 to 700.
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Looking at the entire picture and not just snow, 12Z NAM is still a wintry mess for the area. Well over an inch of QPF for the area.
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If you're going to use storm mode, be serious about it and ban ji. He's already cluttering up the thread with his typical useless posts.
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9z Wed shows a decent slug of snow inbound with precip expanding further S/W of the metro area. A bit of a better look than 6Z. By 12Z most of the area is engulfed in snow.
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Yeah, I'm not a huge proponent of storm mode, but think it's the right call here.
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Sounds like a bad choice going to a john mellancamp concert, so maybe a sign....
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Lol...the delusional ones on the board that think we hold snowcover for weeks on end will be devastated.
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The board has been ugly lately and now a storm is approaching. Good recipe for crazy behavior during the next 6 model run times. Still a long way to go. Gotta love being reminded the LWX snowfall forecast will bust if the EURO is right.....no shit.
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FV3 has two maximas....a western and eastern one. A bit of a gap in between.
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NAM snow depth maps are about a 6-8" snowfall for the area. Less S/E of course.
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And, then we dry slot. That's what you call a best case scenario for this situation.
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Geesh....DC still barely holding on at the surface still at 0Z Wed.
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At 18Z, DC is still holding the column. A bit of a warm tongue at 850 and another near 725, but still holding on.
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Speaking strictly for DC.....column still good to go at 15Z with snow over the entire area. Even in Fredericksburg, it's still snow at that time.....close around 725 but doesn't get above 32.
