snowfan

BWI: 2.3" IAD: 2.8" DCA: 1.8" RIC: 1.4" Tie: 1.27"

if you're keeping a running list, add snowchaser to the list of bad posters.

Friends don't let friends view the HRDPS. Someone save yoda.

Yeah, I like how he/she came in the storm thread to tell us about how aggressive the warm layer has been. Because none of us have been following that and harping on it for days.

12Z NAM.....DC is over to sleet by 15Z. .3-.4 has fallen by that time, so sticks with the thinking of 1-3/2-4 snow before the flip.

This place is so funny. You have the delusional that see a snow map and are now expecting 4-8" area wide. Then, you have those that are so miserable about everything that they must rain on everyone's parade at all times. Everything is worst case scenario. Then, you have those in the middle trying to be real and trying to convince the other two groups to meet in the middle. For this storm, you're safe going in expecting the following to happen.......1) we will get a short period of snow accumulating 1-4" depending on your area. 2) That will be followed by a period of sleet going into the early afternoon before transitioning to ZR. 3) The surface cold air will be tough to scour out as it always is, so even while roads may get to that state of just being wet in the late afternoon, raised surfaces/trees will still glaze. 4) eventually we go to light rain/drizzle as we all rise above freezing.

Anyone expecting more than 2-4, yes.

DC w PLSN by 18z on the GFS.

Soundings could support sleet and Phineas would always default to.......no, it's awful cold rain. it just happened to refreeze before hitting the ground.

Likewise, never state something is a disaster when it's nearly identical to a models previous run. Pay attention.

3K NAM isn't much different than 18Z for the DC area. Not entirely sure what people are looking at. It's 2-4" snow with a change to sleet.

You probably want to be about -2C at 700 to ensure you're getting snow. The surge at 700 is going to be strong and we're probably looking at a 3-5 hour window of snow before we flip. Just need to keep expectations in check.

By 18Z, most of the area is over to sleet.

The warmth at 700 is surging on the NAM and oriented SE to NW along the Potomac. DC is likely PLSN at 15Z.

At 12Z wed, most of us are in the snow. The warmth surging at 700 is still comfortably south of DC at that time.

Suspect it's overdone a bit, but the icing that some of the guidance has for the mountain areas like skyline drive and west towards canaan would be crushing. Skyline Dr. has already been hit very hard this year. This would take care of the rest of the dead trees up there.

Re: LWX constantly updating their snowfall maps......idk, everyone has their own style. CWG had me in a 2-5" zone earlier today with a boom of 8". That's a CYA forecast if there ever was one. And, I really like CWG, but it seems like they always produce a product that makes it very hard for anyone to claim they were wrong.

Seriously. That post should be framed in the weenie hall of fame.

It's not happening. Please just ignore that horribly silly post.

FV3 takes that axis of heavy snow and shifts NE to cover dc and bmore.

GFS loses the column some time after 18z but not before a 4-6/8" snowfall.

GFS has snow entering DC from the SW at 9z and over spreading the area before 12Z w a good column...for the time being.

I dont keep a running list, but he/she is another....

Phineas showing up w his wet blanket as per usual.

Quickly to plain rain doesnt seem likely.