Stormpc

Cold air chasing precip almost NEVER works out. Short range models were wayy to warm. That said, there's no way you can stick a fork in the midweek event at this time when these models can't even get it right 6 to 12 hours in advance. Fun times, win or lose.

I wouldn't say that at all. You know with these overrunning situations precipitation usually is further north than modeled. Sometimes the best frontogenic banding is also on the far Northern Edge of the precip field. Sometimes you get caught between bands and you are in the screw zone. There's lots of time to watch this. Just need to maintain expectations and come to grips we're not going to get a foot of snow across the board.

I know it's at long range but the NAMs made an appreciable jump to the northwest with the precip shield for the midweek event. For what it's worth. Maybe we'll start seeing more of a movement back to what we need. Hopefully. Got to stop that bleeding. Same with the last two runs of the EURO. Comparing the 0z and 6z runs. Another tick back to the northwest with the precip fields.

Nice job @Ric Airport I think we're all hugging the Euro and it's ensembles. Just need one of those to work for all of us

Its FAR from resolved. The BOMB is no longer in play but a nice event isn't lost, yet. Tomorrow's storm isn't even clear yet. Not over yet! Tuesday night is still a ways away.

It's GONE per GFS . A total WHIFF. No good.

That place on the beach is great!! Good spot if you need to go back over to the mainland to chase if there's a mix. Close to the bridge. That would be an awesome place to ride out a rare winter storm

Where do I sign for this?? Sorry that's a total imby thought. The potential is still there for everyone to eat. Goal posts are narrowing though. As I said a day or two earlier, parts of the Richmond area might be in between both events and end up with essentially nothing. That's not as easy to swallow as it is for folks down my way where we usually get nothing and have zero expectations. At least it's sort of held serve. That 8.3 is right on top of me...

By no means is the Tuesday night Wednesday storm locked in, in any direction. I agree with you there. You are right saying in the mid range things sometimes get skewed a bit then come back the last 48 hours. Hopefully we see a more robust system take shape over the South that runs into the Arctic air mass but right now it's looking more like a southern slider where places just along the coast get some measurable snow but 40 miles inland it's nothing. I reserve my right to change everything I just stated at about 1:15 p.m. today. Fun times!!

It's slipping away here in the mid-range. At least for anything away from the coast in our region. Next EURO will be telling. CMC is back to reality. GFS almost a big nothing.

Why not? It was pretty solid with the last event within 24 hours. Not being sarcastic.

I hope you're right. It certainly a Race Against Time with cold air versus precipitation. The cut off still appears Fredericksburg and North for anything appreciable. And that's being squeezed for the north and west as it appears. Hopefully things Trend back today.

EURO and GFS moved in opposite directions. CMC held steady. ICON moved well NW. All are now onshore with precip. 4 days out now. In that mid-range where some consensus appears to be happening. GFS was a bit alarming tho. Overall still like the trends and love it the EURO is onboard. Tomorrow we'll be looking at meso's. The Sunday deal looks dead to me from RIC and SE.

50% pops down by me. Imagine Nags Head gets crushed with a foot of snow and the rest of us substantially less. There's a chance with this one.

All positive trends for next Tuesday / Wednesday. Hopefully Richmond area isn't in between both systems. As it stands right now it's very possible. But of course things change. Hopefully you all get a little taste before the Arctic blast takes hold. Whatever you get is going to stay around a while (from Sunday night). Looks like you have to be north of Fredericksburg to taste anything with this one.

6Z AI EURO a considerable jump NW...FYI [For Tuesday/Wednesday]

Yes. So far. GFS slowly worked its way back to the northwest. Hopefully Euro follows suit. It doesn't take much for the euro to move to get me but a little bit of work to do to get up to the central and Western parts of our area. Plenty of time.

EURO still scraping the coast and gone. It'd be nice to see some movement inland there. Otherwise I'm not buying anything. Great potential though. Like nothing I've seen in the 7 years I've been down here. There's an actual chance of a bonafide snow storm through Dixie and into the carolinas. Hopefully the EURO starts creeping back Northwest.

Yes that mid-week storm to the South is good for us folks in Hampton Roads and Northeast North carolina. We want it right there right now actually. Selfishly I would cash that check as well as advertised

I need what the Canadian is advertising. 16inches in Currituck looks about right. That'll do. Thank you

Going to be lots of fake outs the next few days. Let's start with the Weekend event and deal with the rest in 5 days. It's all over the place. If you can lock in the morning runs for Richmond you would do it right now.

Wild run to run differences. Need to first figure out the weekend wave before getting a handle on the 21st/ 22nd. All potential outcomes are there are depending upon your preferred model run. Pretty crazy. Interesting part is this weekend's situation is not close to model consensus and it's Wednesday already.

We're heading into Prime Mid-Atlantic snow season. The next 3 weeks is historically the most active for our area. Feeling good about some threats. Lots of cold air lurking. Southern stream looks active. EURO not really budging on the 10 day threat like the GFS and Canadian. In the meantime this looks to be a fairly benign transition week with seasonal temperatures before whatever happens this weekend sets us up for a possibly active period. Until then its fun to look at things at fantasy range. Some of those Southern Solutions are comical. Imagine though?

I like the Miller A on the EURO. Classic east coast bomb. Been showing up around the 20-22 Jan period on both globals in one form or another. Probably our next best window.

Yes I was long asleep by then. The South Winds really did nothing to the surface temperatures since they were down to 32 or 33 all the way near Wilmington but it got warm up top pretty fast. Once we lost the rates that was it. With all the waterways there's so many microclimates around here. It's a very challenging place in all seasons. I do believe there are better days ahead with at least one or two more legitimate shots.