Stormpc

Going to be a busy week as we can see the transition now on the long range models becoming more consistent and stronger with each run. Might not get there by the 15th but certainly looks exciting after with possible Southern stream tracks which is probably good for most of us in this thread. Here is to a good week ahead with eyes on the long range. Love that Greenland block of all indices. OT...You see what happened in Nova Scotia?

Yes you guys were killing it with the wrap around while places just east of DC and Baltimore could never get back in to the snow band. They got the initial thump then it hung out just to the west and snaked down through Richmond and Southern VA. I was lucky enough to be West enough to get back into that 2nd act of the storm which was awesome. Wind blown powder. Great day that was.

That's another very tight gradient. I'm sure I was grieving that storm, missing it to my south. I still think we're going to have another good shot or two. Especially up where you are. Things are looking pretty good I must say. Possible suppressed pattern. Not bad for me. Not great for further north. Pretty rough to go from 7-8 inches in Williamsburg and barely an inch around richmond. That's tight.

It's a very odd area down here. Southern Hampton Roads Northeast North carolina. I had between 8 and 9 inches of snow from that January event in 2022. Actually Shoveled the driveway. Stuck to the road and pavement very well. So it does snow here. And it can happen. I don't remember the last time DCA had 8 inches of snow during one event. Probably not since I moved out of that area in 2019. Very narrow stripe though. A good 6 inches was still prevalent down to Grandy but once south of Grandy (like a mile) there was basically nothing. Up to Moyock and into Chesapeake a few inches less as well. Most of the times during marginal events my neighborhood gets nothing while just a quarter mile inland can have a few inches. I got lucky or unlucky depending on how you look at it. A few times I've had nothing at my house while the front of the neighborhood, which is just a few hundred yards away, has had a dusting. I need the winds coming off the land. Any part of the Sound and I'm toast.

Just my quick two cents. It looks like everything is going according to plan. We knew it would get more favorable after February 10. Doesn't look like we'll sneak in any fluke before that or even a few days after. I still think this time next week we'll be tracking something around Valentine's Day or after. Progressively colder in Eastern Canada. Going to be a blocky situation. Can't really look at any of the operational runs right now. Nothing looks great on those and shouldn't. Patience. We are not running out of time. Yet. I think I'll start paying good attention after Sunday otherwise quick peeks at some of the ensembles and long range indicators and that's it. Enjoy the weekend SEVA/RVA friends.

Damn it. We were trying to hide from everyone. We come down here to escape.

Re 2/5-2/6...If it gets this for North it's going to be rain. As it looks right now. Still looking like pattern change around mid-month but again that's over two weeks away still. We'll take what we can get between now and then. At least something to look at especially for you folks in the Richmond area and north. If anything I'm getting either some rain or a lot of wind driven rain with this. Not much difference down here. A few cold air damming situations pop up on those ensembles. But Not many. From now till mid month looks to be a gradual step down with a little roller coaster in temperatures until that block gets established north of the maritimes. At least that's what it looks like right now. @RIC Airport can delve deeper into the euro and ensembles later.

Jackson not ready for the big time yet I guess. Terrible game. Regular season poser.

Flowers. Brutal. Twice.

Canadian got it done just in time. Similar to EURO.

Exactly. That's the most believable possible, snowy solution. And just think how many elements have to come together at exactly the same time in order to produce that. That would be epic. And one heck of a stroke of luck.

EURO. Wild solution. Never going to happen that way but it's nice to see. We've got something to look at. Signal is increasing for some kind of East Coast storm. Maybe a big one. Models all over the place. Go back even a few days and look how this current weekend weather situation was modeled. Not great. I need to mow the front yard and get rid of the dandelions if there is any chance of snow. A yellow flower poking through isn't a good look.

Today was one hell of a heater. Nearly 80 everywhere! Turned the ac on, up and downstairs. Heat always overperforms. Glad to get this week behind us. Great looking weeklies could be wrong, but if not, we should start seeing some threats in the long range showing up in the next few days. Need to get that cold established up in Eastern Canada to get back in the game. Transition week ahead. Then back to business. I think! Beyond that there's really nothing to talk about given long-range model uncertainty and Incredibly fluctuating op runs. Here's to a great weekend and possibly a thunderstorm or 2!!

I'm actually impressed how humid it is. Feels like Midsummer outside. I saw bugs today too. That didn't take long.

There's going to be some wild rides and differences every 6 hours. Yes consistency is lacking. I still like that second week of February benchmark where things should flip. Should start showing up real soon though consistently. We hope. Haven't looked at the euro but it's running now so I'll see it later.

Today's 6z GFS is one hell of a WEENIE run for us in the lower Mid Atlantic. Nice to see. Won't shake out that way but better than what we have been seeing all winter. Back to tracking!!!

3 mild days thru Friday then back to near normal to slightly above. Definitely not the torch advertised a few days ago. We'll see how mid or late next week shakes out but not seeing that push of widespread 60s/70s like we saw progged. More of a gradual step back down then we are back in business. Love the Eastern Canada cold/High pressing down. Maybe a southern storm track or overrunning set up late in the period. NOT terrible.

Everything looks to be staying the course to a flip back to more favorable conditions after the first week of next month. Not seeing terrible cold, but sufficient enough in the source region over Eastern Canada and Greenland to get us what we need. Especially Richmond and North. We do a lot better when we get those Strong high pressure systems pressing that fresh cold air down on NE winds without having it modify while traveling through thousands of miles of Midwestern Plains and the Continental Divide across the appalachians. Back door fronts and cold air damming looks to be a possibility going forward. Something to watch. Without getting crazy technical.

My fear every year living down here is there's never a cold enough stretch to totally kill the bugs. These last 6 days should do the trick. Anything else after this for me down on the coast is gravy. As you see my bar is very very low. Not many wish for a cold enough winter period to kill bugs. Any snow is a bonus. Looks like mid-February through mid-march will be active. March these days is much better than December and we can now start talking about severe season soon. I know. Depressing to many. Nothing scientific in my post. Obviously we are in the doldrums of midwinter with not much going on for at least 10 days.

Looks like models are trying to Tamp down the 14-day warm up. Maybe a back door front later this weekend followed by normal temperatures. Doesn't look as toasty as it did two days ago that's for sure. All very good steps going forward. Cold trying to build back into Eastern Canada.

Youre rigjt. Diggs was running open. Had him easily for the first down over the middle, crossing. Allen got greedy. His bugaboo. That's why Buffalo with Allen won't win with McDermott. I bet McDermott is gone.

Except it doesn't work that way. You know it. Do that twice and now you're talking. Second time around usually a big difference. We'll see. Baltimore is my pick for sure but don't see them running away with it at all. Let's see what that spread is later. I bet it's -2.5

Haines point was several feet underwater and all the tributaries were so swollen it was quite something to see. Old Town was under water for several high tide cycles. I lived near Old Town. Did quite a lot of damage.

You can bet on '70s next weekend no doubt. Until then we will enjoy winter until Tuesday. Some Echoes breaking out across North Central North Carolina/So Va. Not sure if that's in response to the H5 pass or interaction with the strengthening low and sunshine instability. I have low 50s at the house. That ain't going to make snow!!!

Per radar, that little appendage down the peninsula looks like it's starting to develop. The models have had that arm trailing the exiting storm for several runs now. I suspect there will be some convective snow showers with grauple moving from Northwest to Southeast across the area this afternoon. Won't get down to me but maybe Newport News can get in on some of the goods.