Stormpc

@RIC AirportThe RGEM has that feature as well for Hampton Roads. The inverted V look. Nothing crazy exciting but something to watch. Be interesting to see where that dry slot sets up...in Central Virginia or up further in the Fredericksburg area? Then the pivot thru the DMV and whatever scraps get caught in the flow of the departed low. There could be some instability to give those snow showers a boost with sunshine and tanking upper levels. That may be fun before the Frozen weekend begins. Anyway good stuff. Lots happening.

You see that little sliver in Northeast Virginia beach? Get your butt over there. Maybe if you're lucky you can catch some snowflakes on your tongue in the afternoon as she departs!!

This thing looks more like a Clipper than anything else now. Rounding the base further south, which is nice but needs to slow down to get us Coastal folks some action. Good luck up north....another one missed for us down south and east. Still be watching.

Agree but not ready to toss in the towel yet. It's moving too fast to phase that's for sure for now but again something to watch. I do think we will all see some flakes out of this one. I'll take scraps at this point. I moved down here knowing there was little chance, so I don't get too hung up on things. NAM was pretty good inside 48 with this one. They all had the general idea, Richmond and North. Amounts were spot on too. 2-6 RIC to BWI.

Creeping now. That's great! Hopefully you guys pull out another inch or two before it's over. Not bad! Weekend thing isn't done yet.

Yes that band is booking north. It's gone within the next hour, at least city and SE. Remember to take the model that has the most snow divided by half then divide it by 1/3 and that's the high end of the total. So in this case a trace to 2 in would be the max in the Richmond area. That looks like it's going to work out.

Snow on the I-64 cameras well South into Newport News almost to the shipyards. Meanwhile I sit at 44° with partly sunny skies South of the Border on the coast. Not this time for me. Edit: Friday's system making an abrupt comeback on 12z GFS. That's how Newport News and South can score. Still unlikely but at least there's a chance.

That band and orientation looks like the GFS from four or five runs ago. Short-term models didn't have that as significant. Overrunning is a tough thing to predict. Once that Coastal gets going it may push the best forcing further north, quicker than we want.

Agree. It's slipping away to the north. Life on the southern fringe of this one was always worrisome. Never know. Can get a quick inch or two this evening before things push up north and out. Of course I'd favor areas Ashland and north. South of Richmond and toward the airport not so good. That initial band we hoped for on the GFS for all those days ended up again 75 to 100 miles north. Areas west of DC got their inch from that. At least something's going on. And Thursday Friday looks sort of interesting. Then it gets really cold. So not all is bad

Slipping away to the north. Per usual last minute 50-75 mile adjustment. Never fails regardless of the scenario. Hopefully NAM is wrong.

GFS loves RIC...SW to NE straight thru the metro. Sharp southern cutoff

That warmth is transient; t's still going to be cold. It'll feel like winter at least. Some Fringe chances as well but you know it doesn't really snow down this way so whatever we get is a bonus. Even 24 or 36 hours of tracking the potential is good enough. At least for me obviously can't speak for you but keep an eye out for surprises. End of the week situation has some wraparound potential for us on the coast. Way out there but you never know. Love overrunning snow. If that band can start around or south of the naval station in Norfolk and west toward Danville, it can dump on Richmond for many hours (GFS) before lifting North and out of the area. That would be a surprise three or four inches. Maybe not so surprising but at this rate it would be a shocker.

Oh it's over. He thought he had his Jets Jersey on. This is more like it.

EURO actually improved in that it's liking the idea of the coastal developing. Closer this time to the GFS but not there yet. Not terrible. Places that get into that first overrunning band may be fortunate enough to have snow flying for almost 24 hours if the coastal gets going quick enough like shown on the gfs. Not that it will amount to much but certainly better than blue skies and wind. I'm still 62 degrees at the house right now!!

12Z GFS holds/ups the ante for HR/NENC. Not going backwards that's for sure.

The 6z GFS is what CAN happen with that third wave just off the coast. Cold air in place with moisture thrown over top of the Arctic boundary. That's our only winning scenario in Hampton roads. That's also an outlier. Keep watching...we'll see.

Worse run for north of Richmond but it actually puts us coasties in the game for some late development with cold air becoming entrenched overnight Tuesday into wednesday. Wirh this kind of scraper, we can luck into an inch or two down this way. Obviously not ideal for the masses, but this is the one scenario where a very few of us can score.

And things will look completely different by 0z Saturday. Lots of model spread. Let's get rid of this cutter and see what happens tomorrow afternoon. I still feel pretty good about the Richmond area for seeing some snow at least. Hunting the big dog is going to disappoint a lot of people. That's not in the cards right now. However maybe the 20th? Always the next one. Anyway for a hobbyist it should be an interesting and fun three days. Plus we have NFL playoffs except for that Saturday night crap on peacock which I'm not going to get.

Later development, LP further SE after the cold gets entrenched. Great news for RIC and further SE. Not so great up north. Verbatim it's a nice modest hit. Even I see flakes. 25 mins to Chesapeake to see ground coverage. At least we have something. I'd be interested if I lived Williamsburg and north. Good fun until 1am. Till tomorrow...

That line just cleared my neighborhood and it was a little shocking. Directly behind the monsoon wind driven rain was 90 seconds of exceptionally high winds probably gusting around 70 mph. Hadn't seen anything close to that since Dorian tore up the neighborhood a few years ago. Lots of banging against the house. We'll find out tomorrow what that was but that was pretty intense. We got spared the flooding rains. Just some on and off showers until the Squall line moved through. I wouldn't be surprised if we didn't get one inch total. Anyway that was fun. Looking forward to tracking the next few weeks.

A lot harder to get snow down my way so I don't even bother looking that far until I see a cold pattern established in the east. Richmond and West can LUCK into certain events but not for us down in the Tidewater or outer banks. We need a hefty Continental snow pack and established cold with Southern stream riding underneath us to hope to grasp anything. Let's see how the deck is shuffled after these two cutter bombs clear. Anyway it might be an active day. Be safe out there. Check in later if anything interesting is happening.

Disgusting greed. I hope peacock and NFL suffer immensely because of this. It's about time the NFL takes a hit. Screw them both.

In the immediate we need to look out for possible spin-ups along that Squall line tomorrow evening. Not so sure about the winds even at the vulnerable Coastal locations but some widespread severe may be possible. Interested to see what happens down south later today. The once modeled widespread Heavy Rain event looks more like some showers during the day then a concentrated Squall line to finish it off. I don't think our locales will have any issues with Urban Street flooding. Severe is something to watch for sure. Great job @Ric Airport chasing down possible winter scenarios for the region. Always a nice read. Thank you for that.

Nurse ratchett actually lived in Leesburg for a while. Late 90s. The actress.

I bet he gets some looks this week. Need to work him in before the bye week. That being said I have no idea if he has any value whatsoever given the dumpster organization (yes Darkstar) he played with this year. I pray they lose every game for the next 20 years. Such disrespectful crap to feed their fans year and year out. I laugh at the idiot fans that still dress up like buffoons in all their jet gear at Met Life. Laughing stock. I can't do it anymore.