Thats all true. Let's see if we can get some ground truth. Radar is solid over me with little coming down. Having a hard time saturating with those North winds pulling the dry air down
Dry air is eating away the north side of the precipitation over HR/NE NC. I see patches if blue skies above my area. Probably won't get going till afternoon (if at all!!). Not sure anyone in our region gets 6 inches! Maybe 3-4 southside into NC. Not looking like our storm.
Not sure its a bust yet. Let it play out. Good returns streaming up eastern NC headed towards HR. Too bad this became a double barrel mess. No capture/consolidation of L's.
Nowcast time and it looks like snow is on my doorstep. Let's enjoy whatever comes!
I wouldn't change any forecast that I would have made earlier this afternoon. 6 to 10 + South Side into North carolina. 4-7 Southern peninsula. 2-5 Williamsburg North to the airport.
12 hours to go time and basically no two models have a similar or same conclusion. They are completely spread out. This is a complete guess. Odd. Something outside of what we have seen in all of the model depictions is going to happen. I guess you just take a broad brush of everything and take a wild guess.
The northern extent of the precipitation field always seems to overperform and stretch further north and west than forecast.
Models are ever so slightly creeping further Northwest the last 24 hours. For the most part. We can still see more adjustment today into tonight
Bad run for Central and anywhere in Southern Va. But with such a tight gradient, at least in HR, all it takes is a 50 mile bump and that's doable in 36 hours.