Stormpc

Flowers. Brutal. Twice.

Canadian got it done just in time. Similar to EURO.

Exactly. That's the most believable possible, snowy solution. And just think how many elements have to come together at exactly the same time in order to produce that. That would be epic. And one heck of a stroke of luck.

EURO. Wild solution. Never going to happen that way but it's nice to see. We've got something to look at. Signal is increasing for some kind of East Coast storm. Maybe a big one. Models all over the place. Go back even a few days and look how this current weekend weather situation was modeled. Not great. I need to mow the front yard and get rid of the dandelions if there is any chance of snow. A yellow flower poking through isn't a good look.

Today was one hell of a heater. Nearly 80 everywhere! Turned the ac on, up and downstairs. Heat always overperforms. Glad to get this week behind us. Great looking weeklies could be wrong, but if not, we should start seeing some threats in the long range showing up in the next few days. Need to get that cold established up in Eastern Canada to get back in the game. Transition week ahead. Then back to business. I think! Beyond that there's really nothing to talk about given long-range model uncertainty and Incredibly fluctuating op runs. Here's to a great weekend and possibly a thunderstorm or 2!!

I'm actually impressed how humid it is. Feels like Midsummer outside. I saw bugs today too. That didn't take long.

There's going to be some wild rides and differences every 6 hours. Yes consistency is lacking. I still like that second week of February benchmark where things should flip. Should start showing up real soon though consistently. We hope. Haven't looked at the euro but it's running now so I'll see it later.

Today's 6z GFS is one hell of a WEENIE run for us in the lower Mid Atlantic. Nice to see. Won't shake out that way but better than what we have been seeing all winter. Back to tracking!!!

3 mild days thru Friday then back to near normal to slightly above. Definitely not the torch advertised a few days ago. We'll see how mid or late next week shakes out but not seeing that push of widespread 60s/70s like we saw progged. More of a gradual step back down then we are back in business. Love the Eastern Canada cold/High pressing down. Maybe a southern storm track or overrunning set up late in the period. NOT terrible.

Everything looks to be staying the course to a flip back to more favorable conditions after the first week of next month. Not seeing terrible cold, but sufficient enough in the source region over Eastern Canada and Greenland to get us what we need. Especially Richmond and North. We do a lot better when we get those Strong high pressure systems pressing that fresh cold air down on NE winds without having it modify while traveling through thousands of miles of Midwestern Plains and the Continental Divide across the appalachians. Back door fronts and cold air damming looks to be a possibility going forward. Something to watch. Without getting crazy technical.

My fear every year living down here is there's never a cold enough stretch to totally kill the bugs. These last 6 days should do the trick. Anything else after this for me down on the coast is gravy. As you see my bar is very very low. Not many wish for a cold enough winter period to kill bugs. Any snow is a bonus. Looks like mid-February through mid-march will be active. March these days is much better than December and we can now start talking about severe season soon. I know. Depressing to many. Nothing scientific in my post. Obviously we are in the doldrums of midwinter with not much going on for at least 10 days.

Looks like models are trying to Tamp down the 14-day warm up. Maybe a back door front later this weekend followed by normal temperatures. Doesn't look as toasty as it did two days ago that's for sure. All very good steps going forward. Cold trying to build back into Eastern Canada.

Youre rigjt. Diggs was running open. Had him easily for the first down over the middle, crossing. Allen got greedy. His bugaboo. That's why Buffalo with Allen won't win with McDermott. I bet McDermott is gone.

Except it doesn't work that way. You know it. Do that twice and now you're talking. Second time around usually a big difference. We'll see. Baltimore is my pick for sure but don't see them running away with it at all. Let's see what that spread is later. I bet it's -2.5

Haines point was several feet underwater and all the tributaries were so swollen it was quite something to see. Old Town was under water for several high tide cycles. I lived near Old Town. Did quite a lot of damage.

You can bet on '70s next weekend no doubt. Until then we will enjoy winter until Tuesday. Some Echoes breaking out across North Central North Carolina/So Va. Not sure if that's in response to the H5 pass or interaction with the strengthening low and sunshine instability. I have low 50s at the house. That ain't going to make snow!!!

Per radar, that little appendage down the peninsula looks like it's starting to develop. The models have had that arm trailing the exiting storm for several runs now. I suspect there will be some convective snow showers with grauple moving from Northwest to Southeast across the area this afternoon. Won't get down to me but maybe Newport News can get in on some of the goods.

@RIC AirportThe RGEM has that feature as well for Hampton Roads. The inverted V look. Nothing crazy exciting but something to watch. Be interesting to see where that dry slot sets up...in Central Virginia or up further in the Fredericksburg area? Then the pivot thru the DMV and whatever scraps get caught in the flow of the departed low. There could be some instability to give those snow showers a boost with sunshine and tanking upper levels. That may be fun before the Frozen weekend begins. Anyway good stuff. Lots happening.

You see that little sliver in Northeast Virginia beach? Get your butt over there. Maybe if you're lucky you can catch some snowflakes on your tongue in the afternoon as she departs!!

This thing looks more like a Clipper than anything else now. Rounding the base further south, which is nice but needs to slow down to get us Coastal folks some action. Good luck up north....another one missed for us down south and east. Still be watching.

Agree but not ready to toss in the towel yet. It's moving too fast to phase that's for sure for now but again something to watch. I do think we will all see some flakes out of this one. I'll take scraps at this point. I moved down here knowing there was little chance, so I don't get too hung up on things. NAM was pretty good inside 48 with this one. They all had the general idea, Richmond and North. Amounts were spot on too. 2-6 RIC to BWI.

Creeping now. That's great! Hopefully you guys pull out another inch or two before it's over. Not bad! Weekend thing isn't done yet.

Yes that band is booking north. It's gone within the next hour, at least city and SE. Remember to take the model that has the most snow divided by half then divide it by 1/3 and that's the high end of the total. So in this case a trace to 2 in would be the max in the Richmond area. That looks like it's going to work out.

Snow on the I-64 cameras well South into Newport News almost to the shipyards. Meanwhile I sit at 44° with partly sunny skies South of the Border on the coast. Not this time for me. Edit: Friday's system making an abrupt comeback on 12z GFS. That's how Newport News and South can score. Still unlikely but at least there's a chance.

That band and orientation looks like the GFS from four or five runs ago. Short-term models didn't have that as significant. Overrunning is a tough thing to predict. Once that Coastal gets going it may push the best forcing further north, quicker than we want.