I don't really weigh the nam a lot, but I think Dryslot said it, and we all mentioned this ad nauseum with these. They tick north final 72 hours or so. Not sure why some are getting defensive. This is just how they work.
Yeah he can be confusing. He talked about torches, wanting his driveway and chicken path cleared etc. Then he throws fresh eggs around the coop when the euro gave him 6”.
That’s doable. Part of the issue is how this comes in. Sometimes it’s like a 2-3hr burst and then gets showery. That will get you the lower end. If it comes in like a wall and really regenerates north of the dry slot because of the 850 WF then higher end of range is possible. That I don’t know.
I think the 6z euro actually looks decent. It has a big swath of heavier QPF north of the pike which probably happens given the 850WF look and good forcing there. Would like to see that south before we sleet, but a good thump regardless. I still expect a chunk of sleet and maybe even a touch of light rain or drizzle before maybe another inch of snow to end it. Perhaps a little more if we briefly CJ.