CoastalWx

The mesos albeit initially too warm I think have the right idea. Although I definitely would have some snow and ice inside 128 and that tuck tomorrow may cause issues. Just saw the 6z nam and that isn’t backing down.

I ask because the mean has some really borderline events that favor nne so that surprised me.

Euro warmed and qpf shifted north a bit.

That seems impossible. What algorithm is that?

Sleet and zr risk. May get tucked too.

Nobody on media really talking about it. Pretty light with snows too up to SNH. Must be winter fatigue.

It definitely went south again.

Hrrr with a violent tuck.

Yeah it is. Still awful lol.

Yep you’re right. What happens in Mowvember, winter did remember.

Used to be lots of smaller events. I’ll take the big daddies though.

Those tucks usually are modeled too far to the N and W. In most seasons, those usually end up further south and east due to ageostrophic processes. That will accelerate a bit on Thursday as 925 winds back to more NE. That allows the low levels to leak cold toward the SE with less resistance. What I have noticed is that models are really all over where and how far SE it gets. Later Thursday night we start to WAA and winds down to 925 veer to the south. I also noticed some models vary with the primary strength and position. That’s going to eff around with the tuck placement. You’re basically trying to forecast where the lower 2K of cold will go. Not an easy thing to do and guidance will struggle.

It’s not your typical strong s/w ripping over or just west of us.

You’re in good shape no?

I noticed on the 12z run it looked like the PV to the north was ever so slightly exerting some force to the south. Haven’t looked at 18z, but it’s a tad colder.

Yeah that’s a classic look.

For those who want a lesson on how a block can successfully work. Loop the 18z gfs and take a look at 500mb anomalies or vorticity from a NAMR point of view. What looks like something that should ram into our fannies is kept under us and redevelops. That high does not retreat but remains entrenched.

GFS might be a bit warmer.

Yeah I don't fear climo until after mid March usually.

Same. But, given some other atmospheric features, I did not expect to be crucified in the snow department.

I like 60 for Kevin and 28 for BOS on the HRRR.

Better EPS run today. Difference seems to be more out west (a bit less-PNA) and then this secondary ridge near AK. All sort of helping in tandem.

Ray coming out to Living in America...while the -PNA (Drago) awaits.

If the PNA can change……and the NAO can change…….everyone’s winter can change!!!!

He's at 2K in srn VT with multiple rounds of snow coming starting this evening.